Complete 2014-15 Seattle Mariners Offseason Preview and Predictions
The Seattle Mariners ended an exciting 2014 season on Sunday one game behind the Oakland Athletics for the second American League wild-card spot.
While the Mariners were unable to end a playoff drought that now stands at 14 years, they far outplayed the expectations of just about everyone.
There are plenty of reasons to be optimistic about the future in Seattle after unexpected success in 2014, as a fairly young team should have the pieces to compete again soon.
Making the playoffs in 2015 will hinge on a few key offseason decisions. The Felix Hernandez-Robinson Cano core will be in Seattle for a very long time, but Jack Zduriencik needs to surround it with the right players to be successful.
Generally speaking, the Mariners will likely look to upgrade their offense while leaving the pitching rotation in place. A few important free agents, questions about payroll flexibility and a couple of team needs highlight Seattle's offseason storylines.
Payroll Breakdown
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2014 payroll: $92,281,943
2015 payroll: $61,707,143
That number, via Baseball Prospectus, doesn't include a $7 million option for Hisashi Iwakuma, which will obviously be picked up, plus a number of players eligible for arbitration.
It's unclear how much money the Mariners would be willing to spend, but they probably have at least a little flexibility. Seattle won't be signing anyone to a Robinson Cano-like contract anytime soon, but the club likely isn't completely out of money.
The Mariners will look to spend some cash in free agency, but that small bit of flexibility will also be used for extensions. Talks with Kyle Seager will intensify over the next couple of months, and the Mariners may also be interested in giving Iwakuma a short extension.
With the chance to compete, Seattle will increase its payroll slightly from 2014 while locking up Seager for the next several seasons.
Free Agents
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While nobody on that list is necessarily a critical piece, the Mariners will have a few decisions to make.
The most interesting choice will be in regard to Chris Young. Young was absolutely tremendous in 2014 with a 12-9 record and 3.65 ERA (5.02 FIP), but there has to be some concern about his health and ability to repeat such a performance.
Another tough decision will come with Kendrys Morales. The Mariners have obviously been interested in Morales over the past two seasons and will likely take a long look at him again, but he wasn't worth a -1.5 WAR this year.
Chris Denorfia's career numbers indicate that he could be a solid fourth outfielder on a contending team. However, Denorfia has struggled since the trade deadline, hitting .195/.256/.317, so the Mariners may look in another direction.
The Mariners shouldn't face too many tough choices with the others. It makes sense to bring back Joe Beimel on another one-year deal, as Charlie Furbush is the only other left-hander in the bullpen.
But Corey Hart, Endy Chavez, Franklin Gutierrez and Humberto Quintero will be let go.
Young is perfect for Safeco Field, so it makes sense for both parties to bring him back on a short, incentive-laden deal. After careful deliberation, the Mariners will decide Morales is too risky to bring back on a multiyear deal and will look elsewhere for offensive help.
Potential Team Needs
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After ranking near the bottom of the AL in runs yet again, the Mariners will look to upgrade their offense during the offseason.
The most obvious need for Seattle is a designated hitter/first basemen-type player who can hit in the middle of the order with Cano and Seager.
Assuming the club moves on from Justin Smoak and Corey Hart, it will likely take a long look at Morales while assessing if there are any other players on the market who could provide an upgrade.
Logan Morrison turned in a solid season (109 wRC+) and will work just fine as a placeholder until D.J. Peterson is ready to take over full time at first base.
That leaves DH as the only huge hole on the team, as any potential minor league bat like Peterson or Patrick Kivlehan won't be ready until a few months into the season.
The Mariners will also be in the market for a fourth outfielder. A starting outfield of Dustin Ackley, Austin Jackson and Michael Saunders could be good, but it is risky.
Saunders has been unable to stay healthy for a full season, so the Mariners need a reliable backup should he go down again.
It's also not a certainty that Ackley will be able to continue his second-half hot streak next season, or if Jackson can bounce back from his slump since the trade deadline.
Hernandez, Iwakuma and James Paxton are the only sure-fire locks for the 2015 rotation, but the Mariners shouldn't have to go outside the organization for starting pitching. Even if Young is not re-signed, Seattle could use Taijuan Walker and Roenis Elias to fill the last two spots.
If Beimel does not return, the Mariners will look for a left-handed reliever. The market doesn't offer too many choices other than the expensive Andrew Miller, so Beimel is as good an option as anyone.
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Potential Free-Agent Targets
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The Mariners have some clear needs in free agency, but the options on the market all carry significant risks.
Seattle has been rumored to be interested in Billy Butler over the past couple of seasons, and he could be available if the Kansas City Royals decline his $12.5 million club option. Butler is just 28 years old, but he showed signs of decline this season, posting a 95 wRC+, his lowest since 2008.
Victor Martinez will also hit free agency as one of the top hitters in the majors. Martinez will command an expensive multiyear contract and will turn 36 years old during the offseason, but he may be worth the risk for a team trying to contend soon.
The free-agent class of outfielders will also offer some intriguing options. Seattle will undoubtedly be linked to Nelson Cruz all offseason long, but Melky Cabrera or Delmon Young could also draw some interest to either DH or corner outfield.
While not a priority in any sense, the Marines should also look to bring in a cheap backup catcher such as Geovany Soto.
One more name to keep an eye on is Cuban outfielder Yasmani Tomas. Tomas fits in well in Seattle as a right-handed corner outfielder with power, but he may end up costing too much.
Don't expect the Mariners to sign a big name like Cruz or Cabrera, but they will add some offense in free agency. Despite the risks, someone like Butler or Adam Lind could very well come to Seattle.
Trade Possibilities
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The Mariners made three deals at the trade deadline, but they still have a few chips that could interest other teams during the offseason.
If the Mariners can make a trade to better their offense at the expense of pitching, they would be tempted to pull the trigger. Walker could be expendable as the centerpiece of a package for a hitter who's ready to contribute at the major league level.
Even after trading Nick Franklin, the Mariners have two shortstops in Brad Miller and Chris Taylor, but they will likely battle for the starting job before one is traded. Seattle must value its offensive prospects, so players like Peterson or Alex Jackson should be just about untouchable.
If the Mariners are to make any trade, selling bullpen depth for a DH or outfielder would make the most sense. A reliever like Brandon Maurer could fetch some value without hurting the team too much, as Carson Smith appears ready to step into the Seattle bullpen.
Again, don't expect any huge moves from the Mariners on the trade market. Instead, the team may look to do some low-risk deals similar to the trade for Morrison last offseason.
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