Oakland Athletics' Ideal Postseason Rotation and Reliever Roles
Celebrate A's fans: Oakland is in the playoffs for the third consecutive year.
But wait.
First, there's that pesky one-game, win-and-your-in AL Wild Card Game to get through. Because of such dire circumstances, the A's will go with their main man Jon Lester. But after that? What will the rotation look like, or what could it look like, rather, with the postseason schedule?
Assuming the A's make it past the wild-card game, they're set up with a powerful rotation.
Check out the ideal rotation and whether or not bullpen roles will change.
No. 1: Jon Lester
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There is no debate that Lester should go first in the postseason rotation.
In 11 starts for Oakland, Lester went 6-4 with a 2.35 ERA, including one complete-game shutout. Including 21 games with Boston, Lester's 2014 record is 16-11, and his season ERA is 2.46.
Lester is the best starting pitcher on the A's and one of the best starting pitchers in the game.
His ERA is eighth-best in Major League Baseball. His 16 wins are ninth-best. He also has the eighth-most strikeouts in all of baseball.
And beyond this season's stats, Lester has plenty of postseason experience. He has pitched in the postseason four times. In his playoff career, he is 6-4 with a 2.11 ERA.
Besides, the game coming up is a do-or-die situation. With only one game and the season on the line, you want Lester to be the guy in that pressure-filled, must-win situation.
Lester at the top is a no-doubter.
No. 2: Jeff Samardzija
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If Lester wins the sudden-death game against the Kansas City Royals, the A's will move on to face the Los Angeles Angels.
At the two spot, I would throw Jeff Samardzija.
Sonny Gray just threw a gem to finish the regular season, but after a complete-game shutout Sept. 28, a game four days later on Oct. 2 is pushing it. He's out.
Realistically, that leaves Samardzija or Scott Kazmir.
Kazmir has more postseason experience (eight games to Samardzija's one), but neither man has been to the postseason in the last four years. Kazmir's also faced a bit more adversity in his career, but it's all about who's hot now.
Samardzija is hotter at this moment.
In the month of September, "Shark" has pitched in at least seven innings in all five starts. He'll either pitch you a gem or he'll oddly allow a number of runs. But the former is more likely to occur than the latter, as Samardzija allowed four runs Sept. 5, five Sept. 27 and zero runs in the three starts between.
Lately, it's hard to know what to expect from Kazmir.
He'll allow three runs and only last six innings. Then, it'll be one run in an eight-inning gem. That's followed by four quick runs and the hook in the fourth inning of the next game.
Also going in Samardzija's favor is the fact he's a right-hander.
The Angels hit .273 against southpaws, which was fourth-best in the league. That average drops to .254 against right-handed pitchers—eighth-best. Against the Angels, Samardzija is 1-1 with a 0.60 ERA this season. Kazmir is 0-2 with a 27.00 ERA.
No. 3: Sonny Gray
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On Friday, Oct. 3, Gray is up (knock on wood).
He'll have his five days rest, and he's coming off arguably one of the biggest games of his career. The A's needed a big game, and Gray delivered a complete-game shutout.
As shown in the last slide, the Angels hit lefties well.
However, Gray is 2-1 against the Angels in four starts this year. And though Los Angeles' team batting average is .274, against Gray it was just .227.
An iffy Kazmir or a solid Gray? It's an easy answer.
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No. 4: Scott Kazmir
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I'd pitch Kazmir fourth in the rotation, but it would depend on the situation.
With Lester pitching the one-game, wild-card showdown, he'd be available to pitch Game 3 of the ALDS. Game 4 then falls on Monday, Oct. 6. Samardzija could pitch on four days rest, or Kazmir could pitch.
For me, the decision depends on the situation.
If the A's are down, Samardzija has been pitching better. But if the A's are up 2-1 in the series, there's no doubt you pitch Kazmir and rest your guys. No one is going to say "shucks, we have to pitch Kazmir?" Kazmir at four is a good "fall back" to have.
But again, if there's concern, then it's Samardzija on shorter rest, with Kazmir out of the bullpen if anything goes wrong.
Say it's Samardzija who goes. Then, Kazmir's first start wouldn't be until Tuesday, Oct. 14, or Game 4 of the ALCS, if things go according to plan.
Recapping the Starter Situation
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These are the first four pitchers you should see:
Jon Lester (WC)
Jeff Samardzija (ALDS Game 1)
Sonny Gray (ALDS Game 2)
Jon Lester (ALDS Game 3)
Dependent on the situation, you either see Samardzija on four days rest or a fresh Kazmir.
If it's Shark, then the rotation stays intact with Gray, Lester, Samardzija and Gray again before time catches up and Kazmir must pitch. Then, the rotation resets.
If it's Kazmir on Oct. 6, both Samardzija and Gray will be rested, and you could go with either one. I would go with Samardzija; the rotation would then reset.
Reliever Roles
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Nothing changes here as far as roles in the bullpen go. The team seems to have pretty clear roles already.
Sean Doolittle is the closer, and that is that. Luke Gregerson is a solid setup guy who can close if Doolittle needs the rest. Fernando Abad is the seventh-inning guy if the starter doesn't make it.
Jesse Chavez and Kazmir are long relievers, with Chavez serving as the primary option. You might even throw Drew Pomeranz or Jason Hammel before Kazmir just to hang on to him.
In between the long relievers and the closing staff, you have Dan Otero and Ryan Cook.
Otero will remain that tough-inning guy to get the team out of sticky situations. Cook will be in line after the rest, providing filler—for lack of better terms—innings when up or down by quite a bit. And, of course, after that, you have even more depth from Evan Scribner and Fernando Rodriguez, but it will be surprising to see those two much in the postseason.
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