NCAA Football Rankings 2014: Predicting the AP Top 25 After Week 5
Week 5 was more about what almost happened than what did.
Florida State, Texas A&M and Georgia were pushed to the brink by N.C. State, Arkansas and Tennessee, respectively, and looked for a long while like they might fall victim to an upset.
Ultimately, they all survived those challenges, but the Associated Press Poll voters were taking notes. Were their struggles enough to move them down the rankings in a week where only two Top 25 teams lost? Or will the status quo be maintained when the new poll comes out Monday?
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Here is a guess at the answer:
| 1. Florida State | 4-0 | 1 | def. N.C. State, 56-41 |
| 2. Oregon | 4-0 | 2 | BYE |
| 3. Alabama | 4-0 | 3 | BYE |
| 4. Oklahoma | 4-0 | 4 | BYE |
| 5. Auburn | 4-0 | 5 | def. Louisiana Tech, 45-17 |
| 6. Baylor | 4-0 | 7 | def. Iowa State, 49-28 |
| 7. Texas A&M | 5-0 | 6 | def. Arkansas, 35-28 |
| 8. Michigan State | 3-1 | 9 | def. Wyoming, 56-14 |
| 9. UCLA | 4-0 | 11 | def. Arizona State, 62-27 |
| 10. Notre Dame | 4-0 | 8 | def. Syracuse, 31-15 |
| 11. Ole Miss | 4-0 | 10 | def. Memphis, 24-3 |
| 12. Georgia | 3-1 | 12 | def. Tennessee, 35-32 |
| 13. Mississippi State | 4-0 | 14 | BYE |
| 14. Stanford | 3-1 | 16 | def. Washington, 20-13 |
| 15. LSU | 4-1 | 17 | def. New Mexico State, 63-7 |
| 16. USC | 3-1 | 18 | def. Oregon State, 35-10 |
| 17. BYU | 4-0 | 20 | BYE |
| 18. Wisconsin | 3-1 | 19 | def. South Florida, 27-10 |
| 19. Nebraska | 5-0 | 21 | def. Illinois, 45-14 |
| 20. Ohio State | 3-1 | 22 | def. Cincinnati, 50-28 |
| 21. East Carolina | 3-1 | 23 | BYE |
| 22. Oklahoma State | 3-1 | 24 | def. Texas Tech, 45-35 |
| 23. Kansas State | 3-1 | 25 | def. UTEP, 58-28 |
| 24. TCU | 3-0 | NR | def. SMU, 56-0 |
| 25. Clemson | 2-2 | NR | def. North Carolina, 50-35 |
Note: Poll reflects the author's projection of the Week 6 poll—not how he would rank the teams himself.
Fun Fact
In this projection—i.e., one where South Carolina falls out of the Top 25 and TCU climbs in—the Big 12 and SEC would both place 50 percent of their teams in the rankings. The former's would be backloaded with three teams ranked in the bottom fifth, but given the Big 12's preseason reputation, matching the SEC would be remarkable nonetheless.
Technically, the FBS Independents also place 50 percent of their "conference" in the rankings with Notre Dame and BYU, but we'll ignore that for reasons of sample size (only four Independent teams).
Teams Rising:
UCLA
Let's start with the obvious. UCLA played a road game against a "top-15" team in the country and won by 35 points.
That's an easy way to move up the rankings.
No matter your opinion of the Sun Devils, it was hard not to be impressed by what UCLA did in Tempe, overcoming a slow start to blow away the reigning Pac-12 South champion. Quarterback Brett Hundley gave a Heisman-worthy performance in his return from an elbow injury, combining for 427 total yards and five touchdowns.
That was on Thursday. But the Bruins' stock kept climbing late Saturday night when the Memphis team that everybody gave them grief for barely beating, 42-35, put up a similar fight at Ole Miss.
TCU
TCU beat SMU 56-0 Saturday, which is par for the course for opponents of the Mustangs but nice to see nonetheless.
In three games this season, the Horned Frogs have scored 128 points and allowed just 21, appearing to have found a nice offensive rhythm under first-year offensive coordinators Sunny Cumbie and Doug Meachem. Quarterback-turned-receiver-turned quarterback Trevone Boykin has taken well to the spread attack, and he's ready for the big test he'll face against Oklahoma in Week 6.
"Coach says get ready for the games you're supposed to win and the big games will take care of themselves," Boykin said, per the Associated Press (via ESPN.com). "We will probably be up on the little things because we have a better opponent coming to town next week."
The Horned Frogs also rise a bit because their best opponent to-date, Minnesota, looked strong in a road win at Michigan. Granted, there are high school teams out there that look like they could beat Michigan right now, but a win at the Big House will always be a win at the Big House.
TCU beat Minnesota in Week 3, 30-7.
Teams Falling:
South Carolina
South Carolina lost a game it should have won against Missouri on Saturday, blowing a 20-7 lead in the fourth quarter and falling on its home field, 21-20.
The Gamecocks were the better team for more than three-fourths of the night, at one point even holding Missouri to 69 yards of offense over a 40-minute stretch of game time. They were playing strong and sound against a decent opponent, and they appeared to be heading toward an easy (and important) win.
But all of that was erased in the final seven minutes when Missouri scored two quick touchdowns and forced South Carolina into a four-and-out to clinch the win. It returned the favor after last year's game in the other Columbia when South Carolina erased a double-digit fourth-quarter deficit to beat the Tigers on their own home field.
As a result, Steve Spurrier's team should drop out of the rankings.
Arizona State
Arizona State hung tight against UCLA for the first portion of the game, finding success despite the absence of quarterback Taylor Kelly. In fact, it even led by two scores, 17-6, 16 minutes into the game.
Big plays became its undoing, though, and the final result was ugly. An 80-yard touchdown by Eldridge Massington and two 95-plus-yard scores by Ishmael Adams all contributed to the Sun Devils' downfall, exposing their tackling as slipshod on a national stage.
To be honest, Todd Graham's team was over-ranked in the first place. It lost just about everything from last year's defense, and the new unit had not been tested before Week 5. It was only ranked No. 15 in the country by virtue of other teams losing.
It was never one of the 15-best teams.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
