Dissecting Most Crucial Matchups in Tampa Bay's Week 5 Contest with New Orleans

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers clawed their way to their first win against the Pittsburgh Steelers last week, but to get their season back on track, the Buccaneers will have to win their first divisional game by beating the Saints in New Orleans.

It's a little surprising that neither team has been very good this season, particularly on defense. Lovie Smith's arrival did little to improve the Bucs defense so far. The pass defense is simply awful, and the hallmark turnovers of a Lovie Smith defense have yet to materialize.

The Saints aren't much better, posting the same 1-3 record as the Bucs. The defense shows no improvement from last season, despite the addition of Pro Bowl safety Jairus Byrd. To make matters worse for New Orleans, the Saints announced Friday that Byrd is out for the rest of the season with a torn lateral meniscus.

Both teams enter Sunday in a vulnerable state, though the Bucs have some momentum behind them after their comeback win over the Pittsburgh Steelers last Sunday. The Saints on the other hand are reeling from a big loss to the Dallas Cowboys.

However, history is on New Orleans' side. The Bucs haven't beaten the Saints since 2010. In the Bucs' past three trips to the Superdome, they lost by a combined score of 110-33.

While the Saints offense isn't as potent as of late, quarterback Drew Brees is still one of the NFL's elite passers, and tight end Jimmy Graham could gash the Bucs in the passing game if they don't get physical with him. The key for the Bucs defense will be the battle in the trenches and the need for big games from Gerald McCoy and Michael Johnson.

On offense quarterback Mike Glennon should start again and could have some success against the Saints' soft pass defense. Vincent Jackson scored the winning touchdown last week, but he may find himself limited by Saints cornerback Keenan Lewis.

A win in New Orleans would signal a true turnaround for Tampa Bay, especially given its recent history. The Bucs have to capitalize on a bad Saints team to keep the momentum rolling in Smith's reclamation of Tampa Bay.

Jimmy Graham vs. the Bucs Linebackers

David Richard/Associated Press

The Bucs' greatest Achilles' heel defensively this season could be exposed by New Orleans' best weapon on offense.

While the Bucs' pass defense has been pretty awful so far this season, opposing tight ends have been particularly effective against Tampa Bay.

Opposing Tight Ends vs. Tampa Bay in 2014

Player	Team	Receptions	Yards	TDs
Greg Olsen	Carolina Panthers	8	83	1
Jared Cook	St. Louis Rams	4	46	0
Levine Toilolo	Atlanta Falcons	2	25	0
Heath Miller	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	85	1

Source: NFL.com

Olsen and Miller in particular feasted on the Bucs linebackers and defensive backs. Their size and ability to separate, combined with poor coverage by the Bucs in the middle of the field, paid off in spades for their respective offenses.

The Bucs face one of the league's best receiving tight ends in Jimmy Graham. Though the Saints offense isn't as cohesive or effective this year as it has been in years past, Graham is still a dominant receiver. Through four games Graham caught 32 passes for 340 yards and three touchdowns, ranking in the top 10 in both receptions and receiving yards.

There is little chance the Bucs will stop Graham, and the way they've been playing in pass coverage, the Bucs are unlikely to even contain him. The Bucs linebackers have to stop biting on play-action fakes and leaving receivers uncovered on delay routes, which were key to the 10-catch game by Pittsburgh's Heath Miller in Tampa's Week 4 win.

Aside from playing tighter zone coverage, the Bucs need to account for Graham at all times. Nickel cornerback Leonard Johnson needs to get physical with Graham even at the risk of drawing a defensive-holding penalty.

Vincent Jackson vs. Keenan Lewis

Gene Puskar/Associated Press

Bucs wide receiver Vincent Jackson may have caught the game-winning touchdown against the Steelers, but he needs to play more consistently if he wants to have an impact beyond a last-second touchdown reception.

Jackson has been a drop machine this season. He leads the league with five dropped passes in just four games, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

The 10-year vet struggled with drops last year as well, ending the season with 12, per Pro Football Focus. There's no clear indication why Jackson's hands have turned to Swiss cheese, but his reputation as a security blanket is dropping faster than the balls thrown in Jackson's direction.

On Sunday Jackson will likely be covered by cornerback Keenan Lewis. The former Steeler gave Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant fits last week. While he allowed an 18-yard touchdown reception, Lewis held Bryant to just two receptions for 35 yards, per PFF. Lewis is a physical corner who won't let Jackson's size impede his play on the ball. 

The Bucs may have serious problems getting Jackson involved on Sunday. Jackson will be the Bucs' sole big threat on the outside with Mike Evans declared out with a groin injury, per the Tampa Bay Times' Greg Auman:

"

Lovie Smith says Bucs have ruled out S Dashon Goldson, WR Mike Evans and DE Larry English for Sunday's game at New Orleans ...

— Greg Auman (@gregauman) October 3, 2014"

Jackson may be best used as a decoy to keep Lewis occupied while making the rest of the Saints' porous pass defense vulnerable to the likes of WR Louis Murphy and tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins.

Murphy was instrumental in the Bucs' game-winning drive in Pittsburgh, catching a 41-yard strike to put them in scoring position. He may be the better target than Jackson for Mike Glennon in New Orleans.

Gerald McCoy vs. the Saints' Interior Offensive Line

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images

Not even a broken hand can keep Gerald McCoy off the field.

After missing the Bucs' beatdown in Atlanta, McCoy entered Pittsburg ready to play with a heavily wrapped left hand. While his broken hand may have prevented the Bucs' defensive tackle from making every play like the one pictured above, McCoy still terrorized the Steelers offensive line with his burst off the ball and ability to slip through blockers.

McCoy will play this Sunday in pretty much the same shape, according to 620 WDAE's Tom Krasniqi:

"

#Bucs DT Gerald McCoy on his injured hand: "Hand feels good man.....it's definitely still broken.  But hey, it's the NFL man"

— Tom Krasniqi (@TKras) October 2, 2014"

Nonetheless, McCoy is the key to the Bucs defense, and the Saints know this. Saints tackles Terron Armstead and Zach Strief clamored over McCoy's "get-off" and explosiveness, per ESPN.com's Mike Triplett.

So far this season the Saints' interior offensive linemen have been the weak link in pass protection. Guards Jahri Evans and Ben Grubbs, usually pillars of one of the NFL's cleanest pockets, have given up a combined 16 hurries, three quarterback hits and two sacks in four games this year, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).

Evans and Grubbs' inability to keep pressure off Drew Brees is a big part of the Saints' offensive struggles this season. If they continue to struggle, McCoy could end up spending a significant portion of Sunday afternoon in the New Orleans backfield.

Michael Johnson vs. Terron Armstead

Cliff McBride/Getty Images

As the Bucs learned in Pittsburgh, defensive end Michael Johnson's importance to Tampa Bay's pass rush is second only to that of Gerald McCoy.

In sacking Ben Roethlisberger twice and generally harassing him much of the game, Johnson finally made good on the talent which got him a $43 million contract this past offseason. The trick now is for Johnson to perform like he did in Pittsburgh on a weekly basis.

Saints left tackle Terron Armstead suffered a concussion last Sunday but was "fully cleared" this week, per ESPN.com's Mike Triplett. Armstead is playing well this season and could stonewall a hobbled Michael Johnson.

Johnson was a limited participant in practice on Thursday with an ankle sprain, per Sports Talk Florida's Jenna Laine. He played through this sprain last Sunday and turned in his best game as a Buccaneer.

The second-year Armstead hasn't surrendered a sack yet this season. Johnson may need help getting to Drew Brees, which could include sending additional blitzers and employing stunts.

Neither player is entering Sunday's game 100 percent. Armstead might have the upper hand, but Johnson surprised in Pittsburgh. He may surprise in New Orleans as well.

Mike Glennon vs. the Saints Pass Rush

Don Wright/Associated Press

Mike Glennon's first start of the season ended with a surprising win over the Steelers, but to truly convince anyone that the starting job belongs to him, Glennon must take advantage of a subpar Saints defense.

For as a disappointing as the Saints offense has been this season, the defense is much worse:

Saints 2014 Defensive Stats and Rankings

	Total Yards per Game	Passing Yards per Game	Total Scoring	Sacks
Season	396	272.5	110	5
Rank	28th	28th (T)	28th (T)	23rd (T)

Source: NFL.com

The five total sacks for the season tell the story. The Saints are not generating much of a pass rush, and their overall pass defense is paying the price.

Saints defensive coordinator Rob Ryan is not the blitz-happy cowboy he is sometimes credited as being, but he is simply not getting production out of his pass-rushers outside of linebacker Junior Galette and defensive end Cameron Jordan.

Mike Glennon was awful when pressured in the pocket in 2013. According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Glennon when pressured completed only 43.4 percent of his passes, averaged a paltry 4.4 yards per attempt and threw six interceptions.

The Bucs offensive line has been shaky at best this season, but it did show improvement in Pittsburgh. With only two reliable individual pass-rushers, the Saints may need to blitz more often in order to get in Glennon's face.

Without pressure, Glennon is a very different quarterback. Last year, without pressure, he completed nearly 70 percent of his passes, averaged 7.4 yards per attempt and threw 12 touchdowns to only three interceptions, per Pro Football Focus.

The Bucs must focus on holding Galette and Jordan at bay with tight-end chips and double-teams, while also planning for mismatches in coverage when the Saints send the blitz. The cleaner Glennon is on Sunday, the better the Bucs' chances of pulling the upset.