San Francisco 49ers: Will They Get Back on Track Against Philadelphia Eagles?

The 1-2 San Francisco 49ers are taking on the 3-0 Philadelphia Eagles this Sunday…and they’re actually favored by 4.5 points, according to Odds Shark.  That’s a little unusual, and it’s in part because the Eagles aren’t your regular 3-0 team.

Philadelphia has trailed by 10 or more points in every one of its first three games before coming back to be victorious.  It is the only team since 1940 who can claim that, and while that makes its record look nice and shiny, it’s not sustainable.

Similarly, the fact that the 49ers have opened up eight-plus-point leads in every game only to lose twice is simply unsustainable.  These are the sort of splits that occur in small sample sizes and should regress toward the mean as the season goes along. 

In short, if the Eagles are as good as their 3-0 record suggests, they’re going to stop falling behind early, and if the 49ers are as bad as their 1-2 record suggests, they’re going to stop jumping to early leads.

Michael Perez/Associated Press

I don’t think either of those statements is true—I think the 49ers are significantly better than their record indicates, and the Eagles are significantly worse.  I think, in general, the Eagles are the better team right now, but the gap is small enough that the 49ers should be able to come out on top in their matchup this week.

That’s a good thing for the 49ers too.  While a 1-3 start to the season wouldn’t be a death sentence, it would significantly damage their hopes of making the playoffs, especially in the tough NFC West. 

Only 15 percent of the time do 1-3 teams make the playoffs, while 2-2 teams end up there 36 percent of the time.  Obviously, this is generally because the 2-2 teams are better than the 1-3 teams, but it’s also because, in a short season, an early hole can lead to you playing catch-up the entire rest of the way.

A loss actually means the 49ers would not control their own destiny for the playoffs—they could finish the season 13-3 and theoretically miss out on the playoffs.  Obviously, I wouldn’t start seriously worrying about that at this point in the year, but the NFC West is a very tough division to win games in, and the AFC West, who the 49ers play, doesn’t have a lot of pushovers either. 

Better to get a win here and get back to .500 before things can get too bad.

The 49ers pass rush might get back on track this week because the Eagles’ offensive line is a mess.  Evan Mathis, Jason Kelce and Lane Johnson are all starters—and all are out of this matchup.  So is backup tackle Allen Barbre, meaning even the depth isn’t there. 

So far, the patchwork Eagles lineup has been holding up OK but not great—Pro Football Focus (subscription required) says they didn’t allow a sack against Washington last week, but Nick Foles was hit eight times and hurried 16 more.

Marcio Jose Sanchez/Associated Press

The 49ers defense as a whole has only 20 hurries on the season, so San Francisco will need to pick that number up against the Eagles.  If the 49ers can consistently pressure and hit Nick Foles, they’ll take the Eagles out of the rhythm they love to build so much. 

The makeshift line also means lesser holes for LeSean McCoy, who is only averaging 2.9 yards per carry this season.  The potential is there for the front seven to have an enormous game, taking the pressure off a secondary that has struggled somewhat this year.

The 49ers’ offensive line might get a bit of a break too, as the Eagles have not been able to generate much of a pass rush this season.  They’ve managed a grand total of three sacks in the first three weeks—one each for Nate Allen, Mychal Kendricks and Trent Cole.  Kendricks isn’t practicing either, according NJ.com's Eliot Shorr-Parks, so they’ll likely be missing their top pass-rusher.

That should give Colin Kaepernick and the passing game plenty of time to shred the Eagles' pass defense.  The Eagles are giving up 280.3 yards per game so far this season, good for 30th in the NFL.  If Vernon Davis is healthy enough to play in this one, the 49ers have the tools to attack cornerbacks Cary Williams and Bradley Fletcher as well as safety Nate Allen. 

They’ve struggled against Andrew Luck and Kirk Cousins; Colin Kaepernick and his league-leading accuracy, per Pro Football Focus, should be able to pick the Eagles apart, assuming he has enough time to stay upright.

H. RUMPH JR/Associated Press

That’s not to say this one should be a cakewalk or anything of that nature—when you combine a team with three second-half comebacks and a team with three second-half drop-offs, you’re almost ensuring that things won’t be over until the final gun sounds. 

The Eagles also know that if they can get past the 49ers here, they have only the St. Louis Rams and New York Giants on their way to a 6-0 start at their bye week, which would be their best start since their 2004 Super Bowl season, when they started 7-0—they’ll be all-in for this game.

The history of Chip Kelly-Jim Harbaugh matches have also been dramatic, with Harbaugh’s Stanford going 1-1 against Kelly’s Oregon.  Harbaugh’s unranked Cardinal knocked off the Ducks in 2009, while the Ducks rolled Stanford the next season during their undefeated regular season.  Consider this a rubber match between two very strong coaches.

Still, when all is said and done, I like the 49ers to come on top of this one and trigger a winning streak of their own.  By the time the Denver Broncos game rolls around in Week 7, the memories of the 1-2 start should be long forgotten.

Prediction: San Francisco 27, Philadelphia 24

Bryan Knowles is a featured columnist for Bleacher Report, covering the San Francisco 49ers.  Follow him @BryKno on Twitter.