Which Washington Wizards Player Will Make Biggest Leap in 2014-15?
Bradley Beal's upside is difficult to predict. Not because he's wildly inconsistent or because he has so much to improve on.
It's because he has the highest upside of almost anyone in the NBA right now, and there's simply no telling how good of a player he can grow into.
Beal just recently turned 21, and he's already played in two playoff series, went toe-to-toe with Paul George, made clutch three-pointers to sink a higher seed in the postseason (the Chicago Bulls) and has simply gone where only a few players have gone before.
Although John Wall is a young talent, it seems as if we already know where he's headed. It's likely that Wall will be an All-Star year in and year out as long as he's healthy.
But Beal's upside is much higher at this point, and for this season, he'll take a bigger leap forward than Wall.
In his second year in the league, when he was 20 years old at the All-Star break, Beal was one of only four players ever in their sophomore campaign to shoot at least 40 percent from three-point range, average three assists and 17 points per game and have four win shares.
| Vince Carter | 1999-00 (23) | 40.3 | 25.7 | 3.9 | 23.4 | 11.8 |
| Hersey Hawkins | 1989-90 (23) | 42.0 | 18.5 | 3.2 | 17.0 | 8.0 |
| Stephen Curry | 2010-11 (22) | 44.2 | 18.6 | 5.8 | 19.4 | 6.6 |
| Bradley Beal | 2013-14 (20) | 40.2 | 17.1 | 3.3 | 14.3 | 4.0 |
The other three guys? Vince Carter, Hersey Hawkins and Stephen Curry. That's some pretty great company to be in.
In his third year, Carter's per-game averages in those categories increased by 1.9 points and 1.1 win shares while his assist and three-point numbers stayed the same. Although Curry started only 23 games in his third year and his points-per-game average dropped, his three-point shooting increased to 45.5 percent, and he had .144 win shares per 48 minutes, up from .128 in his second year.
It's not unreasonable to see Beal's assist and points averages making a similar jump in addition to his win shares increasing by one or two.
Beal also was only one of two players ever between the ages of 18 and 21 to have a player efficiency rating of at least 17 in the playoffs while averaging 19 points and shooting 41 percent on three-pointers. The only other player to do that was Russell Westbrook in 2010, who played in just six postseason games that season. Beal played in 11.
| Player | Year (age) | PPG | APG | 3P% | PER |
| Bradley Beal | 2013-14 (20) | 19.2 | 4.5 | 41.5 | 17.0 |
| Russell Westbrook | 2009-10 (21) | 20.5 | 6.0 | 41.7 | 24.3 |
Just based on that grouping of players, it's clear that Beal is on pace to be one of the top players in the NBA.
In the context of Washington's offense, Beal will improve on the offensive end with the addition of Paul Pierce.
Beal's biggest flaw last season was his propensity to take ill-advised mid-range jump shots.
He shot just 37 percent between 16 and 24 feet and attempted more shots from that range than any other shooting zone.
By adding Pierce, Beal will be able to patrol the perimeter more—his strength—and Pierce can be more of the mid-range guy. Pierce made 42.41 percent of his shots from that range last season, as shown in his shot chart from NBA.com/Stats.
Beal had an effective field-goal percentage (a field-goal percentage that weighs three-pointers as being worth more than two-pointers) on catch-and-shoots last year of 58.1 percent, according to NBA.com/Stats.
We've seen that Beal is a below-average ball-handler and that the Wizards are better off when Wall is making plays at the rim with Beal at the corner. Although Pierce isn't an elite three-point shooter, he's effective at making threes on the fast break and is at least a better ball-handler than Beal.
The Wizards want Beal doing what he's best at: shooting threes. Having a veteran like Pierce on the floor is only going to help Beal grow.
On the defensive end, Beal is going to have to take on a larger role with Trevor Ariza gone.
Washington will likely go with a "by committee”" approach to having a primary defender mainly because there isn't an elite guy on the roster right now on that end of the floor.
Wall tends to look lost at times, Pierce isn't as quick as he used to be, and Beal is simply not experienced enough to cover guys like Lance Stephenson, LeBron James and Derrick Rose—players whom the Wizards will face multiple times this season and likely in the playoffs.
Off the bench, Garrett Temple can be an end-of-game defensive stopper but probably won't be on the floor at the same time as Beal in the first three quarters. Otto Porter Jr. and Glen Rice Jr. both have the length to be solid defenders, but we haven't seen them on the floor enough to know what they'll bring to the table.
When given the opportunity, Beal will struggle at first to cover elite guys but will only improve over time this season. Like Wall, he has great close-out speed, as seen against this defense of a D.J. Augustin shot in the playoffs.
However, he has problems with rotations on defending the pick-and-roll.
As Umair Khan of Bullets Forever wrote when describing Beal on defense:
"For Beal, containing dribble penetration will be how he earns his keep on defense. He'll have to do a better job on ICE calls, which requires him to position himself on the ball handler's hip and away from the screener and force his man baseline, making it impossible for his man to use the screen. There were a number of times last season where he failed to do so despite his big man being in position to defend on the sideline, and the end result was the ball handler getting to the middle of the floor.
"
These are things that are certainly fixable, and with more experience, Beal will improve on defense, only making him a better player.
Even with slight tweaks and the addition of Pierce, Beal is going to take a huge step forward. It's easy to forget that he's just 21 years old, and by the time he's 25, there's no telling how great of a shooting guard he'll be.
- All statistics are from Basketball-Reference.com unless otherwise noted.
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