Buffalo Bills vs. Houston Texans: Complete Week 4 Preview for Houston

The 2014 Houston Texans were bound to hit a few bumps in the road, but the pothole they hit in New York felt like it popped every tire on their bandwagon. It was as deflating a loss as I've seen in a long time.

However, even the most optimistic fans had them at 11 wins—I had them at seven—which meant there would be at least five losses this season. Days like Week 3 against the Giants were going to happen even if the team surpassed expectations this season.

Though it may feel like it right now, one loss isn't the end of the world or the end of the season for the Texans. After all, they're still in first place in the AFC South.

Coming to town in Week 4 will be the Buffalo Bills who, like the Texans, are looking for a big bounce-back game. The Bills also started off 2-0 before similarly getting completely outplayed in a 22-10 loss at home to the San Diego Chargers.

Both teams had the TV talking heads pondering about which start was more legit with a chance to be built into a playoff run; the dream of a playoff run is likely over for the loser.

I won't call a Week 4 game a "must-win," but as a game that both teams have circled as one they need to win to surpass expectations, a loss would be devastating. It's still very early in the season, but the difference between 3-1 and 2-2 for these teams is massive.

Starting the year with a 2-2 record for a more experienced team with a better quarterback than either the Texans or Bills have wouldn't be a big deal, but falling to .500 after a 2-0 start for these teams would feel like they were sinking fast.

At 3-1 the Texans would maintain at least a one-game lead over the Colts—who have a probable win against Tennessee at home this week—and would put them in a very favorable spot to make a playoff run going forward.

There's no doubt in my mind that the AFC is much weaker than the NFC this year, and when you look at the teams below the expected division winners, it appears to me that a 9-7 team will definitely get into the playoffs out of the AFC.

With a 3-1 record going into Week 5, the Texans would only need to go 6-6 over their final 12 games to reach nine wins, compared to 7-5 if they lose to the Bills. That may not seem like a lot on the surface, but I have a hard time imagining they'll pull off a winning record over their remaining schedule.

The series between these two teams is currently tied at 3-3, but for whatever it's worth—very little—the Texans have won the last two meetings by a total combined score of 52-19.

Houston Texans Week 3 Recap

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

No pass rush, never stopped the run, awful quarterback play, poor blocking from the offensive line and questionable decisions and poor schemes from the coaching staff. Other than that, the Texans played well against the Giants last week!

Last week really was a punch in the gut. All the little dings and chips in the armor cracked, split and were bust wide open by the Giants, who seemed to perfectly identify and exploit every weakness of the Texans.

The poor rush defense against the Redskins returned as an average NFL back tore the Texans apart for 176 yards—the same back who also tore them up last year for 150 yards as a member of the Oakland Raiders. In fact the top two rushing games of Rashad Jennings' career have both come against Houston.

We can't dismiss this as a one-game problem anymore; the Texans' struggle to stop the run is real and will continue to be a problem until either the scheme or personnel changes.

With personnel, it's simple: Jerrell Powe and Jared Crick are getting pushed around like their defensive backs. Neither guy uses his hands well. They play with poor leverage too often and appear to be glued to the blocker at times.

Not only are they getting pushed off the ball, but they're allowing the blockers to get up to the second level on the linebackers, who also haven't been able to shed blockers to make plays. Maybe rookie sixth-round pick Jeoffrey Pagan plays more, but with fellow rookie Louis Nix III going on injured reserve, they're very thin up front.

In terms of scheme, whenever the Texans go into their dime look—a decent chunk of the game—they take out a linebacker and move D.J. Swearinger down to act like a linebacker. Not surprisingly, they haven't been able to stop the run with this undersized group on the field.

If their only problem was stopping the run in their dime formation, that would be fixable to some extent, but they haven't stopped the run out of their base packages either. I'm at a loss as to how that can be turned around before the offseason, when they'll have a chance to change out some of the personnel.

That change in personnel would obviously include Whitney Mercilus, who just looks lost. 

"

Mercilus loses contain. Basic defense here, big gain for the Giants. #Texans https://t.co/qgLQYxuZhS

— PDS (@PatDStat) September 24, 2014"

If you want a stat to further show how poorly the front seven has played this season, check out the team leaders in tackles. 

"

5 of the 6 leading tacklers for the #Texans are in the secondary. Cushing-28 JJo and KLew-21 Swearinger-17 Bouye-14 KJax-12

— PDS (@PatDStat) September 25, 2014"

Some of that is on the scheme, but if the linemen and linebackers were doing their jobs well, that list would look a lot different.

Staying with the theme of the scheme, I've grown tired very quickly of Romeo Crennel's "bend but don't break" philosophy with this defense.

In particular, my gripe is with the off or soft coverage the Texans use on nearly every play. If their corners were lousy, I would understand the strategy of keeping everything in front to prevent getting beaten deep and then rallying for the tackle. Their corners aren't awful, though, and I think they're being misused.

As was shown last week, any team with a solid quarterback and good receiving targets will slice and dice that defensive strategy all game long. I'm not saying Houston should or have to play in press coverage all game long, but the defense has to contest the throws from the opposing quarterback at least a little bit.

With no pass rush outside of J.J. Watt—who had a down game by his standards—and the corners playing off the line of scrimmage, how in the world do the Texans expect to stop anybody? If the quarterback doesn't face pressure and his receivers are given a free release off the line, it's going to be pitch-and-catch all day.

At least if they mix in some press coverage it would obviously slow the receivers' release off the line and throw off the timing of the route to give the pass-rushers more time to get the quarterback, not to mention that it would make the passing windows smaller, leading to more difficult completions.

This defense also hasn't disguised its blitzes very well by walking up to the line early and not moving. That makes it easy for the quarterback to point out and identify the blitzers and make whatever protection changes he needs to make.

Eli Manning knew on just about every play exactly who and how many rushers were coming after him, and to make matters worse, he knew exactly where he could go with the ball quickly to exploit the defense because of the off coverage.

It's been a recipe for disaster. It's time for "Mr. Moving Parts" and this coaching staff that preached versatility and said it would change the game plan week to week to fit the opponent to live up to those promises.

On offense, you don't need me to tell you what happened. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a below-average quarterback who will put up stinker games like this several times per year. Nothing can be done about that, short of changing who the signal-caller is under center.

No Arian Foster, a down game for Fitzpatrick and poor blocking up front—this offense was awful all-around except for DeAndre Hopkins and a few plays from Alfred Blue. Unfortunately, even Hopkins had a bad moment when he lined up in the wrong spot and cost himself what would have been the catch of the year so far.

Even Andre Johnson had a few bad plays with a drop in the red zone and some poorly run routes. 

"

Dre has to run a better route than this. Let's the defender cut in front of him. That route is not Dre like... https://t.co/mSPPDsuNlT

— PDS (@PatDStat) September 24, 2014"

The quarterback and skill position players often get most of the blame for poor offensive performances, but the offensive line didn't play well either against the Giants. 

"

4th and 1 on their own 45. Giants win. #Texans OLine not very good here. https://t.co/LlP7qAbTRY

— PDS (@PatDStat) September 24, 2014 "

"

3rd and short advantage Giants. #Texans https://t.co/8DIqJb2TWv

— PDS (@PatDStat) September 24, 2014"

On the 4th-and-1 play, you can clearly see Brandon Brooks (the right guard) get knocked to the ground—the Texans were depending on him to be a difference-maker in the run game. On the 3rd-and-short run, watch for how Derek Newton gets pushed into the backfield.

Credit to my man Patrick Starr from State of the Texans for these Vine breakdowns; he's a must-follow on Twitter.

Long story short—this slide has been anything but—the Texans played poorly in all phases of the game. They didn't pass the ball well, failed to run the ball effectively in short-yardage situations, allowed big plays to the Giants with the run and pass and permitted a punt from Shane Lechler to be blocked.

The replay of the block makes it look like Danieal Manning didn't even try on that play. I'm not sure why he's being asked to block on special teams, but his lack of effort might have cost one of the best punters in the league a couple of games, as Lechler was hurt on the play.

The coaching staff will also need to have a better game against Buffalo, as I described here with Crennel and in my game grades article with some of the decisions Bill O'Brien made on when to be aggressive and when to be conservative.

The Texans can beat the Bills, but they won't beat anyone if they play like they did against the Giants again.

News and Notes

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Newly Acquired Ryan Pickett Reunited with His Former Defensive Line Coach

From the Houston Chronicle, during Pickett's first five seasons with the St. Louis Rams, he played under Bill Kollar, who has been the Texans' defensive line coach for several seasons. Pickett appears to be happy to play for Kollar once again, saying, "He’s still the same guy. It’s a good thing. I’m excited to play for him again."

If Pickett can stay healthy, he could help improve the Texans' rush defense. 

"

"They said they need help stopping the run and that’s what I do. I’m excited about the opportunity." -- new #Texans NT Ryan Pickett

— Dave Zangaro (@DZangaro) September 24, 2014 "

"

Pickett is the NT here. If he can bring this, he could help. #Texans https://t.co/uk1KvDMx7k

— PDS (@PatDStat) September 24, 2014"

As a veteran who will be asked to just go in and stop the run on first and maybe second down, his learning curve shouldn't be as steep as it would be for most in-season additions. Maybe Pickett will make a difference and maybe he won't, but I'm glad the Texans are at least bringing in some help.

D.J. Swearinger Feels More Comfortable with His Elbow Brace

Swearinger wasn't as effective in Week 3 as he had been earlier in the season, and some of that drop-off has been blamed on the elbow brace he was wearing. From Tania Ganguli of ESPN.com, Swearinger feels more comfortable with the brace and should be able to make plays once again.

"I'll be back to myself," he said. "Last week I was a little off, trying to figure it out, how to play with it, but I've been practicing on it this week, so it won't be a problem. I'll definitely have to wear the brace, but it's good now."

Swearinger plays a huge role as both a pass defender at safety and a run defender and blitzer as an undersized linebacker in the dime package. His health and performance are critical to Houston's success.

Chris Boswell Will Punt on Sunday if Shane Lechler Isn't Able to Play

Former Texan Chris Boswell was re-signed to the team and put on the practice squad the other day to help bridge the gap if punter Shane Lechler has to miss any time with the hip injury he suffered on a blocked punt against the Giants. 

"

Shane Lechler said, "I'll be ready." Immediately after was asked if he'll be ready and he said, "I'm going to give it my best shot. #Texans

— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) September 25, 2014 "

"

"There are multiple people on our roster who can punt," O'Brien says. Will he tell us who? Nope. #Texans

— Tania Ganguli (@taniaganguli) September 25, 2014"

Boswell was signed as an undrafted free-agent kicker to compete with Randy Bullock but did a lot of the punting for the Texans in Games 2, 3 and 4 of the preseason. The former Rice Owl isn't the punter that Lechler is, but Boswell is a quality option as a short-term replacement.

Injury Report

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

From Pro-Football-Reference as of Friday morning:

• Arian Foster, Questionable
• Jadeveon Clowney, Out
• Jared Crick, Probable 
• Tim Jamison, Probable 
• Louis Nix III, Out 
• Shane Lechler, Questionable
• Kareem Jackson, Questionable
• Ben Jones, Questionable
• D.J. Swearinger, Questionable
• Johnathan Joseph, Questionable
• Andre Johnson, Questionable
• Shiloh Keo, Questionable
• Eddie Pleasant, Questionable

X-Factors and Matchups to Watch

Bill Wippert/Associated Press

Texans Run Defense vs. the Bills Rush Offense

As I mentioned on a previous slide, the Houston rush defense has been awful this year outside of a decent performance against Oakland in Week 2. That weak spot will receive a huge test this week as the Texans face a Bills team with two talented backs that finished second last year in rushing yards per game.

The Bills currently rank 10th this year in rushing yards but still pose the same threat to any team that cannot stop the run. Both C.J. Spiller and Fred Jackson are talented weapons, but of the two, I'm more concerned with stopping the veteran Jackson.

Jackson is the better runner between the tackles, which is where the Texans' problem has been so far this year. Another potential issue could be their use in the passing game. I don't trust the linebackers to cover in space, and Jackson is actually tied for the team lead in receptions for Buffalo.

Bills Interior Defense vs. Texans' Running Game

The strength of the Bills defense is right up the middle with their two defensive tackles and middle linebacker. That could pose a problem for a team that needs to run the ball well to win.

In particular I'm concerned about Kyle Williams, who seems to get a jump off the snap quicker than most players at his position. Making matters worse in that regard will be his experience with hearing Ryan Fitzpatrick's cadence over several years of practicing against him.

Ben Jones and Brandon Brooks had a rough week—even Pro Bowl center Chris Myers had some bad plays—so their performance in slowing down Williams and Marcel Dareus will be key.

X-Factor of the Week: Jerrell Powe

The former Kansas City Chief has to perform better, or he may lose his job to the newly acquired Ryan Pickett; hopefully, that acquisition will motivate the underperformer.

Powe's performance will be critical to the Texans' ability to stop the Bills' rushing attack, but he could also play a role in stopping quarterback EJ Manuel. It's obvious that Powe needs to eat up blocks to allow the linebackers to make tackles, but he also needs to get a gap-responsible push on passing downs.

If Powe can get a little push up the middle while still staying within his gap and responsibility, then that will help keep Manuel in the pocket and prevent him from hurting the Texans with his running ability. J.J. Watt and Brooks Reed usually do a good job of keeping the edge; they need Powe to collapse the pocket from the inside.

Prediction

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

I am concerned about how well the Texans will stop the run against Buffalo, but I still think the Texans will win this game. My gut feeling is that this game will play out in a very similar way to how their Week 1 game against the Washington Redskins turned out.

Like Washington, the Bills run the ball well but have struggled in pass defense and at best have shaky quarterback play.

The Bills this season rank 26th in passing yards allowed per game and 23rd in opponent completion percentage at 67.5 percent. Ryan Fitzpatrick still isn't a great or even good quarterback, but I don't think the Bills are capable of exploiting his weaknesses.

EJ Manuel's performance has steadily dropped off with his completion percentage and yards per attempt numbers falling each week this year. In the Bills' last game, Manuel completed just 58 percent of his passes on 6.1 yards per attempt; I don't think he's capable of beating the Texans through the air.

Don't expect the Texans to win easily like against Oakland, but they should win this game.

Prediction: Texans 23, Bills 17

Follow me on Twitter for more Texans opinion and analysis: @sackedbybmac