NBA Predictions 2014-15: 10 Hidden Gems Who Will Emerge This Season
LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Derrick Rose may dominate the headlines during the 2014-15 NBA season, but in the shadows, some hidden gems will take their teams to unforeseen heights.
Last year, Phoenix Suns point guard Goran Dragic exploded with a career-high 20.3 points per game, helping keep his squad in the playoff race until the final week of the season. Sacramento Kings floor general Isaiah Thomas ditched the "Mr. Irrelevant" label by becoming one of the league's deadliest scorers.
The breakouts weren't limited to just guards, either. Los Angeles Clippers big man DeAndre Jordan found a coach willing to live with his dismal free-throw shooting and emerged as one of the NBA's top young centers. Paul Millsap put the Atlanta Hawks on his brawny shoulders once Al Horford went down with a season-ending pectoral injury, nearly helping key a major playoff upset of the Indiana Pacers.
Similarly, a number of currently unheralded players are on the precipice of career-best years heading into the 2014-15 season. Some may owe their imminent breakouts to a change in scenery; others can thank free-agent departures for opening up larger roles.
Looking only at players selected outside the lottery in their respective draft years, 10 in particular stand out as candidates to emerge this season after toiling in relative obscurity to date.
Note: Players are arranged in alphabetical order.
Honorable Mentions
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These players just missed the cut because they're former lottery picks. Still, all three appear poised to emerge as major contributors for their respective squads in 2014-15.
John Henson, PF, Milwaukee Bucks
This next month is the last time to buy low on John Henson's stock. Once the 2014-15 season commences, the No. 14 overall pick from 2012 is going to be an attention-grabbing stud in the Milwaukee Bucks' young lineup.
With Larry Sanders sidelined by injuries for much of last year, Henson slid into the Bucks' rotation mostly as a center and averaged 11.1 points, 7.1 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in just 26.5 minutes per game. He racked up double-digit point totals in 45 contests and grabbed 10 or more boards in 13 of the 70 games he played.
According to Gery Woelfel of The (Racine) Journal Times, Henson has considerably bulked up this summer, which could lead him to seize the opening-game starter role at the 5. Based on the flashes he showed last season, new head coach Jason Kidd would be crazy not to give the third-year pro at least 25-30 minutes of playing time per night, which should help fuel his imminent breakout.
Otto Porter, SF, Washington Wizards
In drafting Otto Porter third overall in 2013, the Washington Wizards believed they were getting an NBA-ready prospect whose all-around game would flourish in their system. Instead, a hip flexor injury cost Porter nearly all of the offseason, training camp and the preseason, which considerably hindered his development as a rookie.
The Georgetown product played just 319 minutes in total last year, averaging 2.1 points and 1.5 rebounds in 8.6 minutes per game. However, despite the signing of Paul Pierce this summer, Wizards fans shouldn't be ready to cut bait on the former No. 3 overall pick just yet.
During Vegas Summer League, Porter averaged 19.0 points and 5.8 rebounds in 31.8 minutes per game, shooting 48.4 percent from the floor and 38.9 percent from three-point range. Though Pierce will likely maintain a stranglehold on the starting 3 job all season, Porter should find his way into at least 20-25 minutes per night, proving himself not to be a major draft bust in the process.
Steven Adams, C, Oklahoma City Thunder
If Oklahoma City Thunder head coach Scott Brooks weren't so inexplicably dedicated to keeping Kendrick Perkins as his starting center, Steven Adams would be one of the biggest breakout candidates throughout the entire NBA.
The No. 12 overall pick from 2013 outperformed Perkins in virtually every measurable per-36-minute category last season, more than tripled his total win shares (2.9 versus 0.8) and nearly doubled Perkins up in player efficiency rating (11.2 versus 6.3). Alas, Brooks kept plugging the plodding Perkins into his starting lineup, forcing Adams to make his mark in limited minutes each game.
According to Anthony Slater of The Oklahoman, a quad strain will sideline Perkins for the first few weeks of training camp, which would "seem to crack the door a bit for Adams." If he takes advantage of the opportunity, there's a strong chance he'll maintain that role all season and never look back.
Aaron Brooks, PG, Chicago Bulls
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Chicago Bulls head coach Tom Thibodeau isn't only a defensive whisperer. He seemingly has the ability to transform any middling backup point guard into a legitimate bench threat, too.
From C.J. Watson and Nate Robinson to D.J. Augustin, tapping into the potential of a reclamation floor general has become somewhat of an annual tradition in Chicago. This coming season, Aaron Brooks is the Bulls' backup point guard seemingly destined for a stealthily stellar year.
Brooks started all 82 games for the Houston Rockets back in 2009-10, averaging 19.6 points and 5.3 assists per contest en route to the Most Improved Player award, but he largely fell off the map soon thereafter. He bounced around over the next few seasons, suiting up for the Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings and Denver Nuggets along with the Rockets, all the while averaging 9.0 points in 20.4 minutes per game.
The journeyman floor general has never been very efficient from the field—he's a career 41.3 percent shooter—but he possesses legitimate three-point range, having drilled 36.8 percent of his attempts from deep. With Chicago desperate for players capable of creating offensive opportunities, don't be surprised if Brooks earns roughly 25 minutes per game, averaging 10-12 points and 4-6 assists in that span.
For Chicago to truly challenge LeBron James and the Cleveland Cavaliers, former MVP Derrick Rose can't go down with a third consecutive season-ending knee injury. Even if Rose stays healthy, though, the Bulls will need a legitimate microwave scoring guard off the bench—a role that suits Brooks perfectly.
Bojan Bogdanovic, SG/SF, Brooklyn Nets
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The Brooklyn Nets suffered a major blow this summer when Paul Pierce decided to depart in free agency, heading down I-95 to join the Washington Wizards. There's only one silver lining to The Truth's decision: It opened the door for Bojan Bogdanovic to sign a three-year, $10 million deal with Brooklyn.
Bogdanovic, the No. 31 overall pick from the 2011 draft, won't be a household name to anyone who doesn't keep up on their international hoops. Those who watched the FIBA World Cup this summer will be well-acquainted with the Croatian sharpshooter, however, as he tied with Andray Blatche as the tournament's second-most prolific scorer (21.2 points per game).
The 25-year-old Bogdanovic has been the top scorer on the Turkish squad Fenerbahce Ulker for the past three seasons, having averaged 14.7 points on 47.4 percent shooting during that span. He's also been a prolific three-point shooter since joining Fenerbahce, drilling 36.3 percent of his 234 attempts from deep.
Andrei Kirilenko will likely begin the year as the Nets' starting small forward, but Bogdanovic should step in right away as one of Brooklyn's primary bench threats. He singlehandedly keyed a near-upset of France in the FIBA World Cup's round of 16, ringing up a game-high 27 points on 11-of-19 shooting, which speaks to his ability to hold his own against NBA-caliber competition.
Replacing a Hall of Famer like Pierce won't be easy, but Bogdanovic should be up for the task. Don't be surprised if he takes over as one of the Nets' top scorers as the year goes on.
C.J. Miles, SG, Indiana Pacers
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After nine somewhat nondescript years in Utah and Cleveland, get ready to become much more acclimated with Indiana Pacers swingman C.J. Miles this coming season.
With Lance Stephenson now in Charlotte and Paul George on the mend due to a broken leg, the Pacers lack any semblance of legitimate scoring wing options. George Hill and Rodney Stuckey aren't exactly going to drive the fear of God into opponents, to say the least.
Enter Miles, the 34th overall pick from the 2005 draft, who averaged 9.9 points in just 19.3 minutes per game last season with the Cleveland Cavaliers. He's a career 35.0 percent shooter from deep on a team devoid of three-point shooting threats, making him a perfect candidate to start at the 2 alongside Hill.
"[Miles] brings versatility to the small forward and shooting guard positions," Pacers president Larry Bird told reporters in July. "He's a great shooter and scorer, and we think he'll fit in nicely with the culture of our team."
The training camp battle between Miles and Stuckey for the starting 2 spot should be fierce, but in the end, the former's long-distance acumen should give him the edge. With Stephenson and George out of the Pacers' lineup, Miles should have little trouble smashing his previous career high in scoring (12.8 points per game, set back with Utah in 2010-11).
Gorgui Dieng, C, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Anyone paying attention to the Minnesota Timberwolves in the doldrums of the 2013-14 season already knows what a revelation rookie big man Gorgui Dieng was.
With starting center Nikola Pekovic sidelined by soreness in his right ankle for all but three of the Timberwolves' final 18 games, Dieng slid into the starting lineup for the first time on March 16th and vastly exceeded expectations. In those final 18 games, the Louisville product averaged 12.0 points, 11.3 rebounds and 1.5 blocks in just 30.2 minutes per game, winning Rookie of the Month honors in March as a result.
Pekovic leaves much to be desired defensively, having allowed opponents to convert 55.1 percent of their looks at the rim last season, per SportVU. With Dieng patrolling the paint, opponents only knocked in 51.5 percent of their tries at the rim, the second-best mark of any Timberwolves player who faced at least one attempt per game.
"Perimeter players drive recklessly into the paint against the Wolves, knowing there is no one at the rim to block or bother their finishes," wrote ESPN.com's David Thorpe in April (subscription required). "With Dieng in the game, that is not the case."
Though Pekovic will return as the starting 5 this year, he has yet to make it through a season without missing at least 17 games. Another injury could open the door for Dieng to seize control of the starting center job for good.
Hollis Thompson, SF, Philadelphia 76ers
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Opportunity is the name of the game when it comes to Philadelphia 76ers swingman Hollis Thompson. After starting 41 contests as a rookie in 2013-14, the Georgetown product seemingly has nothing standing in his way of locking down the starting 3 spot this year, too.
Thompson led all rookies last season in three-point shooting percentage (.401), providing the offensively challenged Sixers with a badly needed release valve. That hot shooting from downtown was no fluke; he finished his three-year career at Georgetown as a 44 percent shooter from deep.
He's somewhat one-dimensional as a catch-and-shoot perimeter threat, which helps explains why he went undrafted in 2012. However, with James Anderson no longer on the roster, Thompson appears poised to "assume a much bigger role this season," CSNPhilly.com's John Finger noted.
"I think I’ve got a lot to prove, more to myself than anybody else," Thompson told reporters during the offseason (via Finger). "I'm going to keep getting better every day, and I love playing basketball, so I’m going to do that. I still need to prove that I belong here, that I can play."
Luc Richard Mbah a Moute and Jason Richardson could both earn some spot minutes at the 3, but heading into training camp, it appears to be Thompson's starting job to lose. Given head coach Brett Brown's affinity for the second-year swingman, he's likely to play heavy minutes this season, which should help facilitate a major breakout.
James Johnson, SF, Toronto Raptors
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The Toronto Raptors made one of the most underrated signings of free agency by bringing in forward James Johnson on a two-year, $5 million deal. This marks Johnson's second stint with the club, having played 87 games with Toronto between the 2010-11 and 2011-12 seasons.
With Kyle Lowry, Terrence Ross, Lou Williams and DeMar DeRozan ready to shoulder the offensive load among wing players, Johnson will enter the year free to do what he does best: wreak havoc defensively. According to Raptors.com's Holly MacKenzie, he'll be "guarding the league's best and brightest each night."
Johnson sounds more than up to the task, telling reporters upon his signing that he's willing to do whatever head coach Dwane Casey asks of him:
"Playing defense, being an opportunity scorer, just doing the little things. Every day, practice hard and try to get our guys to the next level with team defense. I'm just more mature about my game. I'm doing the little things, finding my niche nowadays. Getting opportunity to score when I can and if not, don't worry about the offensive end.
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For an upstart Raptors team fresh off the best record in franchise history, having a defensive stalwart like Johnson will make it that much more dangerous this coming season. Though he's unlikely to light up the scoreboard very often, he appears poised to emerge as one of the league's top wing stoppers in Toronto.
Josh McRoberts, PF, Miami Heat
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With LeBron James having returned to Cleveland this offseason, the Miami Heat will be forced to overhaul their modus operandi from the past four seasons. Though Chris Bosh and Dwyane Wade will transition back into being the team's go-to men, the newly acquired Josh McRoberts will help compensate for the loss of James.
Fox Sports Florida's Surya Fernandez described McRoberts as "one of the best passing big men in the NBA …able to deftly find the open man with his impressive passing skills." Considering how frequently the Heat offense flowed through James instead of the team's nominal point guards, having a capable passer at the 4 will be a major asset for Miami to help ease this post-LeBron transition.
The smooth-shooting lefty averaged a career-high 8.5 points and 4.3 assists for the then-Charlotte Bobcats in just 30.3 minutes per game last season. He also knocked down a respectable 36.1 percent of his career-high 3.7 three-point attempts per contest, which should be music to the Heat's ears.
As Bleacher Report's Tom Sunnergren noted, sliding McRoberts into the 4 spot will allow "Bosh to slide down low—where he's surprisingly capable of wreaking some havoc of his own—without losing the spacing the Bostrich had provided." That could help the Miami offense "look quite a bit like its vaunted predecessor during certain sets," Sunnergren suggested," albeit with a bit less firepower."
McRoberts won't make anyone in South Beach forget about LeBron, especially given the power team that sprung up seemingly overnight in Cleveland this summer. However, the Heat should still be a surprisingly frisky playoff contender even without LeBron, which should help earn McBob some long-overdue attention.
Perry Jones, PF, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Two years into his NBA career, Oklahoma City Thunder forward Perry Jones remains somewhat of an enigma.
Jones slipped in the 2012 draft due to concerns about his knee and his so-called "motor," which allowed Oklahoma City to pounce on a former projected top-five pick late in the first round (28th overall). The springy Baylor product is wildly talented, but those questions about his motor have turned out to be valid.
He's the type of player who can unleash hell on both ends of the court one night and fade completely into irrelevance the next. The Oklahoman's Darnell Mayberry explained what makes Jones so baffling:
"Jones hasn’t just been described as a utility defender. He's also been called a capable 3-point shooter and the most athletic player in the league by teammates. But those descriptions only mean no one truly knows who Jones really is as a player and what his role will be. Versatility has a funny way of being a gift and a curse.
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Given how helpless the Thunder appeared in the Western Conference Finals with Serge Ibaka temporarily sidelined by a calf injury, head coach Scott Brooks would be wise to plug Jones into a more consistent role this coming season. After averaging just 10.4 minutes over his first two years in the league, PJ3 is poised to explode as a major contributor for OKC this year if given the chance.
Rudy Gobert, C, Utah Jazz
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Among the major revelations from the offseason was the breakout performance of Utah Jazz center Rudy Gobert, the No. 27 overall pick from 2013.
At Vegas Summer League, the big man averaged 11.8 points, 9.8 rebounds and 2.5 blocks in just 23.8 minutes per game, shooting 73.1 percent from the field in the process. He carried that success over to the FIBA World Cup, where he ranked second on the France squad with a plus-minus rating of plus-2.7 per game.
During France's quarterfinal upset of Spain, Gobert went toe-to-toe with the Gasol brothers and Serge Ibaka, finishing with five points, 13 rebounds and a block in 23 minutes. As NBA.com's John Schuhmann noted, the Jazz center singlehandedly outrebounded both Gasols, helping France to a 50-28 advantage on the boards.
His showing against Spain wasn't "some abnormal performance that Gobert is incapable of reproducing," Bleacher Report's Zach Buckley wrote. "It was a blueprint for how he can impact an NBA game right now and, in some ways, a basement for the player he can become."
Though Derrick Favors and Enes Kanter figure to command heavy minutes as the Jazz's starting frontcourt this year, Gobert clearly demonstrated over the summer that he deserves a larger share of the pie. "We have really high hopes for him," Utah general manager Dennis Lindsey told Grantland's Zach Lowe, which could speak to an impending breakout season for the 7'2" behemoth.
Tyler Zeller, C, Boston Celtics
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In an attempt to clear the requisite cap space to sign LeBron James this summer, the Cleveland Cavaliers salary dumped center Tyler Zeller, the No. 17 overall pick from 2012, to the Boston Celtics. For a team forced to play Jared Sullinger, Kelly Olynyk and Vitor Faverani at the 5 for most of last season, adding Zeller for a protected second-round pick was an absolute godsend.
Opponents converted just 48.3 percent of their looks around the rim against Zeller this past season, according to SportVU data, which would have been the second-best mark on the Celtics (behind only Faverani). Head coach Brad Stevens is well aware of Zeller's defensive limitations—"I think Tyler would be the first to tell you he's not going to block shots like [Dikembe] Mutombo," he told ESPN Boston's Chris Forsberg—but said "there are different ways to affect drives."
In other words: Just because he's not a top-tier shot-blocker doesn't mean he's a minus on the defensive end. And offensively, he appears to be an ideal fit for Stevens' system, as team president Danny Ainge told Forsberg:
"He can rebound, he can shoot, he can run. He's 7 feet tall, and I think he fits into how we want to play and how Brad wants to have that center position be a runner. You know, get up the court and run to the front of the rim. He fits all that criteria. He is a good young talent. We're excited to have him.
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Zeller should have little trouble fending off Faverani for Boston's starting 5 job this season, which will allow Sullinger and Olynyk to slide back to their natural position at the 4. With an offensive mastermind like Stevens leading the way, Zeller appears poised for a breakout season with the still-rebuilding Celtics.
Unless otherwise noted, all statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com and NBA.com/stats.
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