Is Reggie Jackson on Pace to Become the Next Eric Bledsoe?
Oklahoma City Thunder guard Reggie Jackson has good reason to be monitoring the progress (or lack thereof) between restricted free agent Eric Bledsoe and the Phoenix Suns.
After all, it's not every day you get an almost perfect window into your own future.
"The player whose contract situation Reggie Jackson has said he is paying close attention to this summer could be about to get paid.
And if Eric Bledsoe signs a maximum contract with Minnesota, which has reportedly put that offer on the table, it could have a direct impact on the future of the Thunder’s sixth man.
"
Though there's more smoke than fire in any discussion of the capped-out Minnesota Timberwolves paying Bledsoe the max (they can't) or sending junk assets to Phoenix (the Suns aren't interested), the ongoing stalemate between Bledsoe and his team is instructive for Jackson and his.
Bledsoe has been in the league four years now and is currently enduring the tribulations of restricted free agency. Summation: He wants the max, but can't get it. And Phoenix has no reason to do anything but stand pat.
The Suns made him an offer of four years and $48 million—which Bledsoe declined—and now seem perfectly happy to wait for him to sign the $3.73 million qualifying offer to return for another year, during which time the Suns will get a chance to evaluate a promising player who missed half of the 2013-14 season with a knee injury.
It's a pretty good spot to be in for the Suns—except for the fact that their relationship with Bledsoe might now be ruined.
Oops.
Jackson is a year behind Bledsoe, having just completed his third NBA season. OKC can extend him on a new contract this summer, as long as it does so before Oct. 31. If no deal is reached by then, Jackson will head into the morass of restricted free agency next summer.
The Thunder probably aren't keen on that idea, given how things have gone between Bledsoe and the Suns. To date, though, there haven't been any rumblings of an extension that would avoid that fate.
Before anyone pipes up about how Bledsoe is a vastly superior player and/or Jackson can't possibly expect to come within a country mile of max money next summer, pump the breaks, friend.
If we consult the numbers, it's startling to note how much more Jackson and Bledsoe have in common than contractual status.
Through their first three years in the NBA, Jackson and Bledsoe's production levels were eerily similar.
| Bledsoe | 19.6 | 6.7 | 3.0 | 2.6 | .460 | 13.6 |
| Jackson | 19.3 | 8.0 | 2.7 | 2.7 | .474 | 14.3 |
In fact, Jackson's third season (in 2013-14) was far better than Bledsoe's third (2012-13).
| Bledsoe | 20.4 | 8.5 | 3.1 | 3.0 | .473 | 17.5 |
| Jackson | 28.5 | 13.1 | 4.1 | 3.9 | .485 | 15.4 |
Anecdotally, most give Bledsoe an edge over Jackson on the defensive end, though the numbers comparing their third seasons, per 82games.com, aren't all that dissimilar.
| Bledsoe | 14.9 | 102.0 | 106.9 |
| Jackson | 16.4 | 104.7 | 105.4 |
Athletically, we can all agree Bledsoe, aka mini-LeBron, has a distinct advantage. Still, for all that bulk and speed (Jackson's no athletic slouch, by the way), Bledsoe's first three years in the league weren't markedly better than Jackson's.
The obvious difference is that we've seen what Bledsoe can do with a major role as a consistent starter. He broke out last year, albeit in half a season.
Jackson has yet to get that chance, and even if he wins the starting shooting guard job with the Thunder this year, he'll still be stationed well beneath Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and, probably, Serge Ibaka on the touches totem pole.
In that sense, even if Jackson's role grows, OKC could still head into the 2015 offseason (assuming no extension is reached before Oct. 31) with far less information about Jackson than the Suns currently have about Bledsoe.
Right now, Phoenix knows its free agent can play like a star when given a leading role. OKC probably won't be able to say that a year from now—no matter how many flashes of brilliance Jackson shows.
From the Thunder's standpoint, a limited role for Jackson might be a good thing—if it depresses his value to the point other teams won't throw big offer sheets at him next summer. Then again, Jackson is watching Bledsoe's situation play out, and he clearly sees how restricted free agency already puts the player at a disadvantage.
He might become doubly upset if he feels the Thunder never gave him enough playing time or touches to create whatever smidgen of leverage he could.
"It’s very prideful for me," Jackson told Mayberry. "I feel like I’m very talented. I feel like I can lead a team. That’s just how I’ve been raised and that’s just how I’ve always felt. I want to be the guy in charge. I want to be the guy leading the team. The head of the snake."
If this sounds like a potentially complicated situation, that's because it is.
A couple of key factors figure to make the Thunder's position easier next year, though: They don't need Jackson, and they can't afford to pay him max money.
Bledsoe is the second-best player on Phoenix's roster behind Goran Dragic, and he fits perfectly into the dual-point guard system it prefers. Jackson is merely a role player for the Thunder, and he'll be no more than that as long as Oklahoma City's stars remain on the roster.
Jackson might be every bit as good as Bledsoe, but the Thunder aren't in a position where losing him would be as big a blow as the Suns losing Bledsoe. Furthermore, the $63 million OKC currently has committed to salaries in 2015-16 means paying Jackson isn't really an option—unless the cap spikes by much more than most expect.
That's not ideal; the Thunder have made a habit of losing supporting scorers in the past—think Jeff Green and James Harden. If you subscribe to the notion that continuity matters, the reality of letting Jackson walk might sting a bit more.
Still, there's the small matter of preserving as much cash and flexibility as possible for Durant's 2016 contract. I'm guessing that free-agency situation occupies a slightly higher spot on the Thunder's priority list than Jackson's.
All this puts the Thunder in an interesting situation this season. They need a guy to take over the off-guard spot from the departed Thabo Sefolosha, and Jackson could be that somebody. Of course, they also need a steady influence to lead the second unit at the point, a role Jackson has already proved he can handle.
OKC needs Jackson to play well no matter what, and he might even be the piece who puts it over the top in its quest for a ring this year. But if Jackson really shines, just as Bledsoe did in his fourth year, we could be headed for a stubborn summerlong non-negotiation just like the one the Suns and Bledsoe are stuck in right now.
As potential problems go, though, you'd have to think the Thunder would accept one created by Jackson playing like a borderline All-Star.
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
