Contract Year NBA Players Poised to Have Huge Seasons in 2014-15
Before the 2014-15 NBA season tips off, a number of questions are waiting to be answered.
Chief among them: Which impending free agents are most likely to post the numbers necessary to garner substantial monetary commitments next summer?
From the max contracts LaMarcus Aldridge and Rajon Rondo will be seeking to pay increases for the likes of DeAndre Jordan and Greg Monroe, the regular season is going to set the stage for another dramatic summer of player movement.
As a result, we've decided to examine the players whose bank accounts stand to benefit from superlative performances in the year ahead.
Honorable Mention: LaMarcus Aldridge, PF, Portland Trail Blazers
1 of 12
Age: 29
2015 Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
LaMarcus Aldridge is a special case, in that he already appears to have a max contract sewed up.
After leading the Portland Trail Blazers to the playoffs behind nightly averages of 23.2 points and 11.1 rebounds (both of which represented career highs), Aldridge is in line for a huge payday, according to Yahoo Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski:
"With only a remote chance that Aldridge will agree to the three-year, $55.5 million extension afforded him this summer under the collective bargaining agreement, the Blazers are determined to keep Aldridge on a five-year, $108 million extension that he can sign upon reaching free agency next summer.
Aldridge has publicly and privately expressed a strong desire to stay with the Blazers, and there's believed to be significant momentum toward him ultimately recommitting to Portland. The fact that the owner and GM made the trip to present the offer face-to-face wasn't lost on Aldridge's camp, sources said.
"
That said, there are areas in which Aldridge can stand to improve. While his scoring and rebounding averages reached new peaks, Aldridge's field-goal percentage dipped to a career low of 45.8 last season.
That sub-optimal total can be partially attributed to the increased volume at which Aldridge hoisted shots, but it's worth noting he did knock down a career-high 44.2 percent of his looks between 16 feet and the three-point line.
According to Basketball-Reference.com, shots from that range accounted for 41.5 percent of Aldridge's total field-goal attempts, a fact that can temper concerns moving forward.
And since the offer already appears to be on the table, it would be a major upset if Aldridge didn't agree to max terms when free agency opens next summer.
Honorable Mention: Extension Candidates Galore
2 of 12
Since we're still four weeks away from the October 31 deadline for fourth-year players to sign extensions, it's difficult to project which ones will still be playing for raises when the 2014-15 season tips off.
But by now, you should be familiar with the big names in this group: Klay Thompson, Kenneth Faried and Kawhi Leonard.
In the tier below those prospective centerpieces are Jimmy Butler, Kemba Walker, Tristan Thompson, Reggie Jackson, Nikola Vucevic, Enes Kanter and the list goes on.
You can catch a complete rundown of those names here.
While some of those players will undoubtedly ink extensions prior to the league-mandated deadline, the remaining talents will fall into the Gordon Hayward sector of restricted free agency, where their previous employers will have a chance to match any incoming contract offers.
Honorable Mention: Rudy Gay, SF, Sacramento Kings
3 of 12
Age: 28
2015 Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
Rudy Gay garners honorable-mention consideration because last season suggests he could post huge numbers during his first full year with the Sacramento Kings, though that production may not necessarily translate to bigger checks.
As things stand, Gay is slated to make $19.3 million in the final year of his current deal. According to ESPN.com, that's the 10th-largest annual salary any one player will earn during the 2014-15 season, one spot ahead of Kevin Durant.
So even if Gay does average close to 20 points and shoot in the 47-48 percent range as Mike Malone thrusts him into a more comfortable combo-forward role, the Kings shouldn't be shelling out that sort of cash for a high-profile sidekick.
While the need for a second star is substantial in today's NBA, Gay shouldn't be compensated as if he's the focal point of Sacramento's quest for postseason glory. That title belongs to DeMarcus Cousins, and it won't be changing hands anytime soon.
Contract talks may be on hold for the time being, according to Cowbell Kingdom, but Gay's pursuit of a new deal should ramp up as the season gets underway.
Honorable Mention: Rajon Rondo, PG, Boston Celtics
4 of 12
Age: 28
2015 Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
Rajon Rondo gets grouped with LaMarcus Aldridge because his track record suggests a max contract should be in the cards.
General manager Danny Ainge admitted as much during the team's media day, according to The Boston Globe's Gary Washburn.
"I think a four-time All-Star by the time he’s 27 years old would qualify for max based on what we’ve seen in the marketplace,” Ainge said. "If I were Rajon and I were Rajon’s agent [Bill Duffy], I would definitely say that. But since I’m negotiating against him, I’ll withhold."
Washburn puts this into perspective:
"In other words, the Celtics have roughly nine months to determine whether Rondo will receive that money here or elsewhere. And it’s rather refreshing that Ainge admitted what the parameters of such an agreement would be. He hasn’t always been so open about players of the past, such as Kendrick Perkins or Tony Allen.
"
And while Rondo is facing adversity after suffering a broken hand that's expected to sideline him for six to eight weeks, he'll have plenty of time to prove his worth upon returning.
The bigger problem for Rondo, though, is that Boston holds quite a bit of negotiating power.
Not only did the Celtics just draft combo-guard Marcus Smart at No. 6 overall, but point guard is the league's deepest position. Thus, there's no telling what the market for his services could look like.
As a result, Rondo may have to shave a few million off that max asking price if he really does want to reunite with Boston.
Arron Afflalo, SG, Denver Nuggets
5 of 12
Age: 28
2015 Free-Agent Type: Player option ($7.5 million)
At first glance, Arron Afflalo may not look like he's playing for a new contract. After all, he has a $7.5 million player option that can easily be picked up next summer.
But according to the Orlando Sentinel's Josh Robbins, Afflalo "has indicated that he plans to decline his player option and become an unrestricted free agent in July 2015."
Following a 2013-14 season that saw Afflalo shoot 45.9 percent from the field and 42.7 percent from three en route to averaging a career-high 18.2 points with the Orlando Magic, Afflalo has the potential to complicate the Denver Nuggets' financial situation tremendously.
As things stand, the Nuggets' payroll shows the team is about $10 million over the 2014-15 salary cap of $63.065 million but about $3 million shy of the $76.8 million tax line.
Consider Denver has to take care of Kenneth Faried (whose annual salary could feasibly quadruple or quintuple from the $2.2 million he's making this season) and decide how to handle the final year of Wilson Chandler's partially guaranteed deal, and this won't be an easy decision for general manager Tim Connelly to make.
Should Afflalo seek a deal that's too rich for Denver's taste, don't be surprised to see him bolt for his third team in as many years.
Omer Asik, C, New Orleans Pelicans
6 of 12
Age: 28
2015 Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
Are the New Orleans Pelicans finally on the verge of breaking out?
For the second season in a row, hope is engulfing the Bayou's beloved basketballers, but how much progress they make is dependent on improvement across the board.
Should the Pelicans ultimately jump into the chase for one of the Western Conference's final playoff spots, expect Omer Asik to act as a facilitator of positive change.
With Asik bulkier and thus better equipped to defend some of the league's more physical low-post bangers, Anthony Davis should be afforded the opportunity to take less of a beating while almost exclusively guarding 4s.
And after Asik limited opponents to 46.8 percent shooting at the rim last season (No. 11 overall, minimum five attempts per game), according to SportVU player tracking data, New Orleans' ability to redirect looks in the restricted area to less efficient spots on the floor could improve dramatically.
Now that he'll be back in a starting role, Asik's scoring and rebounding averages should approach the double-double figures he posted as a full-time starter with the Rockets two years ago.
If those numbers prove to be easily replicable, Asik will be a hot commodity on the open market. After all, he only has one year and $8.4 million remaining on his contract.
With truly elite rim protectors a rare breed as teams league-wide begin employing smaller, more versatile frontcourt pairings, Asik has a chance to earn bags of simoleons during his first year in New Orleans.
Goran Dragic, PG, Phoenix Suns
7 of 12
Age: 28
2015 Free-Agent Type: Player option ($7.5 million)
Here's where things get complicated.
The Phoenix Suns are simply overflowing with depth at point guard after signing Eric Bledsoe to a five-year, $70 million deal.
However, there's still the matter of Goran Dragic's impending payday.
While Dragic can exercise a $7.5 million player option for 2015-16, he's established himself as Phoenix's most valuable ball-handler and scorer, making him a shoo-in to earn a salary bump.
But is a raise from Phoenix necessarily in the cards? While it would appear to be the most likely option at this point in time (particularly after the Suns signed his brother, Zoran), Grantland's Zach Lowe notes Phoenix has no shortage of options thanks to its glut of prolific 1s:
"The Suns have unmatched depth at the position, and that depth allows them to be opportunistic should the right deal become available. They can listen to offers for Dragic this season, the last on Dragic’s under-market deal, or once they re-sign him. They can listen to offers on Bledsoe; Masai Ujiri re-signed Nene to a big money deal in 2011 with the precise goal of eventually trading him, and though the return hasn’t panned out (I think JaVale McGee just ran the wrong direction somewhere), the rest of the league took note of the strategy.
"
With Dragic playing for a substantial pay increase, expect him to come out guns blazing and earn the all-star status he's long deserved.
Marc Gasol, C, Memphis Grizzlies
8 of 12
Age: 29
2015 Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
There isn't much intrigue regarding Marc Gasol's future as a member of the Memphis Grizzlies, namely because he's preemptively squashed any speculation that he could bolt for another locale.
Here's what Gasol told The Commercial Appeal's Ronald Tillery back in June regarding his status as an unrestricted free agent next summer:
"You know my relationship with Memphis and my relationship with the Grizzlies. I've always said Memphis is my home away from home. Robert (Pera, Griz controlling owner) knows that. I know that. My teammates know that and that's all that matters. I live day to day but I don't see myself anywhere else. Only time will time. But I don't see a reason to change right now. Why would I change right now?
"
But as CBS Sports' Matt Moore points out, this likely won't be the Grizzlies' pursuit alone:
"The Knicks have already immediately been put in the rumor mill as a suitor for Gasol. The Los Angeles Lakers, who acquired Gasol's brother from Memphis in 2008... in exchange for a package that included the younger Marc himself... will have max cap room. Nearly every powerhouse with cap room will make a run at the 2013 Defensive Player of the Year, even at age 30 which the Spaniard will be next summer. He'll be sought after, wooed, tempted.
"
How attractive those big-market opportunities are to Gasol remains to be seen, but additional interest only stands to bolster his negotiating power.
And while basic box score statistics may not paint Gasol as a max-contract superstar (averaging 13.5 points and 7.9 rebounds for his career), his status as one of the game's best mid-post passers and lockdown defenders should result in a contract that approaches the five-year maximum.
DeAndre Jordan, C, Los Angeles Clippers
9 of 12
Age: 26
2015 Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
It feels like just yesterday the Los Angeles Clippers were matching the Golden State Warriors' four-year, $43 million offer sheet for DeAndre Jordan.
Now, Jordan is staring at a considerable raise after entrenching himself as a dynamite rim protector during the 2013-14 season.
Back in August, CBS Sports' Zach Harper explained just how imperative Jordan's presence was to the Clippers' defensive success:
"After one season under Doc Rivers, Jordan flourished on the defensive end of the floor. In his first five seasons in the NBA, Jordan was capable of blocking shots, but a lot of them seemed empty. He'd provide the highlight, but it didn't stop the other team from regularly scoring whether Jordan was on the floor or not. In 2013-14, the Clippers gave up a slightly lower percentage in the restricted area when Jordan was on the floor, but they also gave up 3.0 percent fewer shot attempts in the paint with DeAndre patrolling the key.
"
With defensive development occurring at a steady pace, the next step will be for Jordan to slowly-but-surely expand his offensive arsenal.
The league leader in field-goal percentage each of the past two seasons, Jordan's modes of scoring are largely confined to lobs in pick-and-rolls, baseline cuts and second-chance opportunities.
To that point, Jordan attempted 81.7 percent of his shots between 0 and 3 feet last season while racking up an absurd 1.43 points per possession off cuts, according to Synergy Sports (subscription required).
After posting up on just 9 percent of his touches last season (0.80 points per possession), Jordan could garner a more generous bump in pay if he intersperses some post moves into his nightly scoring regimen.
Robin Lopez, C, Portland Trail Blazers
10 of 12
Age: 26
2015 Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
You probably weren't expecting this one.
Quietly, Robin Lopez put together a rock-solid 2013-14 campaign, one that saw him post the NBA's top individual offensive rating (128).
Furthermore, the Portland Trail Blazers were 5.8 points better per 100 possessions with Lopez on the floor, compared to minus-0.7 per 100 with him on the bench, according to NBA.com.
To cap things off, Lopez pulled down the league's third-most offensive rebounds (326) and tied for fifth in total blocks (139).
Following that pseudo-breakout season, Lopez is primed to boost his average annual salary while pursuing contractual security.
The only problem: Portland isn't in a position to be playing with long-term deals for non-superstars.
As previously discussed, LaMarcus Aldridge will be getting maxed out. The front office also needs to free up some cap room for Damian Lillard's eventual extension. Not to mention Wesley Matthews will be an unrestricted free agent next summer.
Which leaves Lopez in a very uncertain situation. If he shows out for the second year in a row, he'll undoubtedly be looking to capitalize on his surging stock. The question is: How will interested parties appraise his value?
Lopez could look for a contract in the Tiago Splitter range ($36 million over four years), but that feels like the max for a player of his ilk.
A one- or two-year pact could work for both sides with an increase in the salary cap looming, but Lopez would be smart to chase the money while he's still relatively young.
Paul Millsap, PF, Atlanta Hawks
11 of 12
Age: 29
2015 Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
There was no bigger steal during the summer of 2013 than Paul Millsap's two-year, $19 million deal with the Atlanta Hawks.
The contract was a below-market value to begin with, but when Al Horford went down with a season-ending pectoral injury, Millsap far outperformed his $9.5 million annual salary.
Thanks to averages of 17.6 points and 8.2 rebounds prior to the league's February recess, Millsap earned his first career All-Star nod. He then followed up that performance by averaging 18.6 points and nine boards following the break.
And after helping Atlanta push the Indiana Pacers to seven games during the Eastern Conference quarterfinals, Millsap emerged as a perfect interior complement on a team that did so much of its damage from beyond the arc.
So while his per-game numbers may drop slightly once Horford returns, Millsap's ability to successfully redirect defensive attention away from the main man in the middle and Mike Budenholzer's prolific perimeter attack could result in some much-deserved contractual security.
Greg Monroe, PF, Detroit Pistons
12 of 12
Age: 24
2015 Free-Agent Type: Unrestricted
After signing the Detroit Pistons' qualifying offer worth $5.5 million, Greg Monroe is slated to test free-agent waters for the second summer in a row.
Only next year, he won't be bogged down by the restricted label that precedes his free-agent designation.
While his steady play was overshadowed by Josh Smith's struggles and Andre Drummond's revelatory production last season, it's important to remember Monroe was one of 11 players to average at least 15 points and nine rebounds last season, according to Basketball-Reference.com.
Yes, it's still too early to peg potential suitors for Monroe's services, but don't discount the Pistons entirely when it comes to retaining the former lottery pick—particularly after Stan Van Gundy heaped praise on his frontcourt's offensive potential, according to NBA.com's Keith Langlois:
"I think it is an ideal pairing. If I look at just the film I’ve watched now and looking at the numbers, you would say that Greg and Andre together were great offensively. That was a great combination on the offensive end of the floor, especially when the three guys around them were shooters – more conventional perimeter types. That worked very, very well. Now, it didn’t work very well defensively. I think it puts a lot of responsibility on Greg Monroe to have to guard out on the perimeter.
"
Monroe's fit in Van Gundy's four-out, one-in scheme can rightly be questioned after 32.8 percent of his possessions came via post-ups last season, per Syngery Sports (subscription required), but a career-high 41 percent shooting between 10-16 feet provides hope that his stock can surge under the offensive practitioner.
All statistics courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise.
All contract information courtesy of ShamSports.com unless noted otherwise.
