Derrick Rose Enters Next Season as Chicago Bulls' Biggest Question Mark
The Chicago Bulls watched Derrick Rose play during the FIBA Basketball World Cup, but they still haven't really seen him—not the way they need to.
So as training camp approaches and Rose tries to retake center stage, a Bulls team with title aspirations still has more questions than answers about its most important player.
Is He Healthy?
That depends on the definition of healthy.
Rose knocked out nine games in 16 days at the World Cup, a stretch of condensed action as grueling as any he'll face in the upcoming NBA season. That's a positive sign on its face, as even the most optimistic of Rose's supporters likely had doubts about his ability to simply stay on the floor.
At the same time, Rose wasn't logging big chunks of high-intensity play. He averaged just 17.1 minutes per game, a great many of which occurred in low-leverage situations after the outcome was already decided.
And as good as the FIBA competition was, it still fell far short of what Rose will face with the Bulls this year.
The best thing you can say about how Rose fared in the World Cup is that he survived. Chicago will need him to do much more than that in 2013-14.
Can He Shoot?
Once upon a time, Rose could really shoot.
Per Grantland's Kirk Goldsberry, Rose's 2009-10 season featured flat-out elite jump-shooting:
"In that season, only three players attempted more midrange shots than Rose: Dirk Nowitzki, Kobe Bryant, and Kevin Durant. But Rose outshot all of those hacks (jk, jk) in terms of field goal percentage in the midrange. Of the 25 NBA players who attempted at least 500 midrange shots that year, Rose ranked first in efficiency, knocking down 47 percent of his 794 midrange attempts.
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In subsequent years, Rose phased out the mid-range shot and substituted triples. Per Basketball-Reference, only about 5 percent of Rose's shots came from beyond the arc in his first two NBA seasons. Over the ensuing three campaigns, more than 25 percent of his field-goal tries were threes.
Analytically, threes are smarter shots to take. But Rose's accuracy suffered immensely after the swap, and it hasn't ever recovered.
Maybe the 2009-10 season was an outlier. Or perhaps Rose's mechanics changed because of his increased three-point attempts. Whatever the case, D-Rose's outside shot has been an issue throughout his lengthy rehab process.
All along the way, he's claimed improvement. And even after struggling through a mighty slump in the World Cup, he confidently told reporters "I think I found it now, just changed one little thing" before the U.S. took on Slovenia on Sept. 9, per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune.
Rose would connect on six of his 10 shots in a blowout win over Slovenia, but he didn't make a single one from outside the paint.
Whether Rose will truly rediscover his stroke for the Bulls this season—something he must do in order to keep defenders honest enough for him to get to the hole—remains a huge question. All we know for sure is this: Rose's field-goal percentage has declined in each of the last four seasons he's played, and he's never shot better than 34 percent from long range.
The Bulls added shooting over the summer in the form of Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic, but they'll still need Rose to be at least a marginal threat from outside the lane.
Can He Play Like He Used To?
Rose's jumper won't matter quite as much if he scores in transition and attacks the rim like he did three years ago.
The problem: Chicago still doesn't know if he can do those things.
Deferential to a fault in the World Cup, Rose offered up only the briefest flashes of his old head-down, run-through-a-wall style. A little discretion is probably a good thing for a player coming off two seasons lost to injury, but even just one sustained stretch of vintage Rose would have eased the Bulls' concerns about his physical health and mental state.
Still, the flashes were pretty cool.
Rose can't be a facilitator who picks his spots if Chicago is going to make any real noise in the Eastern Conference. He has to be the primary weapon.
Can He Retake Control of the Bulls?
There's a fascinating, under-discussed subplot to Rose's impending return: The Bulls aren't his team anymore.
Two years with Rose on the sideline created a leadership void in Chicago—one filled by a two-man committee of Tom Thibodeau and Joakim Noah. Thibs became the organization's most iconic figure on the strength of his no-compromise approach and renowned defensive scheming. He got more out of the past two years' Bulls teams than anybody had a right to.
Noah took over as Chicago's heart—its emotional leader and most impactful on-court presence. He collected a Defensive Player of the Year award last season, an indication the NBA cognoscenti acknowledged his rise to prominence.
It would be a mistake to assume Rose will saunter back into Bulls primacy.
He's been gone too long, surrounded by too many questions and never really had the outspoken, take-charge personality you normally associate with leaders. The Bulls should be somewhat concerned at the way Rose so willingly took on a secondary role in the World Cup, despite the urging of his coaches.
Per K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune, Team USA head coach Mike Krzyzewski said:
"He’s being very unselfish, trying to be a good teammate. It all comes from a good place. He knows the defensive ball pressure is there. He wants to distribute the ball. He’s in a lot of times when DeMarcus (Cousins) is in to try to get him the ball. We would like for him to look for his stuff as well.
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That's hardly a knock, but it's cause for pause.
Because Rose is reserved by nature, he'll find it hard to snatch back the reins he once held in Chicago. And if he plays in as subdued a fashion as he did in Spain, it may be impossible.
Will We Ever Be Satisfied?
There's only one thing Rose can do to appease Bulls fans and the public at large: play exactly like the MVP he once was.
It's amazing Rose is healthy after all he's been through, and when he labels an underwhelming (but healthy) return to competitive basketball a success, maybe it's a sign we should relax our own expectations.
"He gave himself an A, when asked how would he grade his overall performance during the FIBA Basketball World Cup. Despite the suspect assist-to-turnover ratio, the anemic outside shooting, the visible problems he had finishing, and the fact that once he lost his starting spot to Kyrie Irving he never got it back, Rose still personally won.
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It's not fair or realistic to always measure a player against the impossibly high standards he set in the past, especially when the circumstances that have befallen that player make a return to the pinnacle so unlikely. The Bulls may not take the same unrealistic approach to Rose's return as most fans do, but the fact remains that—fair or not—Rose will have to be every bit as good as he once was in order to get the Bulls where they hope to go.
And Chicago simply can't know if he'll measure up until the season begins.
The Only Question That Matters
The biggest question of all is the only one with an answer.
If Rose isn't his old MVP self, are the Bulls contenders?
No way.
Adding Pau Gasol and improving the team's shooting on the wing make Chicago better, but Rose's ability to lead, to dominate, remains singularly important.
Can Jimmy Butler take the next step?
Will Noah remain healthy?
Is Taj Gibson going to be cool with coming off the bench again?
These are all pressing questions, but they impact the Bulls less than Rose, who is, at this point, nothing but a collection of questions himself.
The good news: Training camp is just a couple of weeks away.
The Bulls are about to get some answers.
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