Which Portland Trail Blazers Player Has the Most Upside Right Now?
Few teams can boast an abundance of young talent, but the Portland Trail Blazers are one of them.
It's even more of a luxury to have to assess which players have the most upside and who will flourish first. For the Blazers, guys like Damian Lillard, Nicolas Batum and Wesley Matthews have developed into legitimate NBA players, often dominating games at their respective positions.
Yet others such as Thomas Robinson, C.J. McCollum and Will Barton have yet to fully step into the spotlight and reach their fullest potential. Developing talent always takes longer than signing established free agents but more often than not pays larger dividends.
It's been a successful route for most, but it's been a rather shaky one for Portland fans in years past. From Greg Oden to Brandon Roy, injuries have often decimated hopes of young talents growing into young stars.
But as the current players gear up for the coming season, there's a few who will have the chance to take advantage of a revamped reserve unit. Let's take a look.
Will Barton, G
Barton started out last season as a fringe reserve player but saw his role grow as the season went on.
He emerged as a spark plug off the bench, with athletic plays energizing his teammates and the crowd. Barton’s playing time was sporadic early on, as he averaged 4.8 minutes prior to All-Star Weekend and 12.4 thereafter.
He chipped in 5.3 points and 2.4 rebounds in the latter half and played solidly against the San Antonio Spurs in the second round of the playoffs. Barton’s 17 points and six rebounds in Game 4 stopped the Blazers from being swept.
With former reserve Mo Williams having joined the Minnesota Timberwolves, Barton will have the chance to be a primary reserve behind Matthews. It’s likely McCollum will act as the team’s new sixth man, with veteran Steve Blake coming in at either guard spot.
In any case, Barton has potential to develop into a solid player. His jump shot needs a bit of work though, as he converted just 24.1 percent of them, according to NBA.com. Barton could also grow into a two-way player on the wing, which would further enrich Portland's bench.
Still, he has a way to go.
Meyers Leonard, C
After being selected No. 11 in the draft, Leonard has struggled to stay on the court as a serviceable player. His defense, mobility and passing likely netted him such high consideration, but it hasn't translated well to the professional level.
Leonard is often caught in the middle of things, with an inconsistent motor hampering his ability to contribute. As such, he saw his minutes drop from 17.5 during his rookie year to just 8.9 last season.
There seems to be a consensus around the NBA that is as follows: You can't teach height.
At 7'1" and 245 pounds, it's likely Leonard will always have a place in the league. Having a big body in the middle is imperative, regardless of the competition. Against smaller lineups it's an advantage, and against bigger ones it levels out the playing field.
Even so, Leonard needs to improve in a few areas to really become a significant player. And as he told reporters, he knows it too: "I think I really have something to prove. I have all the confidence in the world in myself. I know that I will work as hard as I can this summer and get a lot better. There's no doubt in my mind that I will be a relevant factor in the team's success in the future."
He went on to touch on his play last season, mentioning it was "not the year I wanted to have, but I think that's going to fuel me for this coming summer and next year."
Leonard's playing style can be compared to that of teammate Robin Lopez to a certain extent, as the latter is a solid two-way post player who can pass well. The only bump in the road has been his lack of development.
Coming into next season, Leonard will be one of many young players who should improve. His upside is very high, but it will come down to his ability to stay confident and keep at it.
Thomas Robinson, PF
Of all the players we’ll review here, Robinson was picked highest in the draft. Taken No. 5 in 2012, he bounced from the Sacramento Kings (after 51 games) to finish his rookie season with the Houston Rockets, before ending up in Portland for last season.
Robinson has yet to start a single game during his career thus far, which isn’t fully indicative of much, though a player taken that high in the draft normally develops into a starting-caliber player.
That hasn’t happened yet for the big man.
Robinson doesn’t have a select area where he excels, which makes it difficult for him to find a niche. His post moves are limited, his jump shot is inconsistent and his work on the boards isn’t dominant enough for him to act as a rebounder.
He averaged 4.8 points and 4.4 rebounds last season, though he struggled to stay on the court with 1.9 fouls in just 12.5 minutes per game.
What cannot be questioned, though, is Robinson’s athleticism, effort and motor. He may often be left out of position offensively or defensively and try to do too much with the ball, but his effort level remains high.
It may have something to do with finally settling in the right circumstances.
Under an experienced coach in Terry Stotts and surrounded by experienced veterans, Robinson may have found the right place to develop as a pro. Speaking to reporters, he discussed his growth during last season:
"This season was great for us. The fact that I was able to contribute for a dominant part of the season for a winning team was big for me this year. Coming back with more consistency...I think I have a better understanding of who I am as a player this year. Now it's just about making it known that's who I am and building off of that.
"
It’s clear he has an understanding of his role going into next season and will still have room to grow despite it. It’s more than likely the perfect situation, given that the pressure of playing like a No. 5 pick will be off his shoulders.
Some players develop slower than others, and being in the right situation might be a turning point for Robinson. The effort, motor and determination to play stronger are there, which, logic would dictate, should equal improvement next season.
He has a satisfactory arsenal of skills, with only a few needing tweaks to become serviceable, consistent traits. In particular, his post moves and jump shot (with a little work) could launch Robinson to the next level.
The upside and potential surrounding the power forward are high, but it’ll be a process for Robinson and a project for Portland’s training staff. He deserves a nod of consideration for what could transpire going into next season, but he doesn’t have the most upside when compared to one of his teammates.
C.J. McCollum, G
All those listed thus far could snag the title for having the biggest upside, but it is appropriately assigned to McCollum.
He was also a lottery pick for the Blazers, taken No. 10 in the 2013 draft. McCollum also had a shaky start to his NBA career, but for different reasons when compared to Leonard and Robinson.
After breaking his left foot in January while at Lehigh, the guard went on to break the same foot in October during practice with the Blazers. He subsequently missed the majority of training camp and the first few months of the season, both critical periods of adjustment for players.
McCollum instead had his debut on Jan. 8 against the Orlando Magic but averaged just 12.5 minutes in 38 games for the season. He acknowledged his odd start to his NBA career to the media:
"I went through some unusual circumstances getting hurt early on in training camp, but one that I'm grateful for. I've learned a lot throughout the process of being hurt and then coming back on a team that was -- I think we were 23-5 or something like that. I got a different type of circumstance where I was a lottery pick playing on a good team who finished top six in the NBA. I'm thankful for the opportunity. Looking forward to a clean slate going through a healthy training camp and bouncing back for next year.
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Given his unorthodox entry to the league, many are quick to forget his ability as a prolific scorer. Though he chipped in just 5.3 points on 41.6 percent shooting for his rookie season, McCollum showed flashes of brilliance in the summer league.
He averaged 20.2 points—good for No. 4—on 47.9 percent shooting, thoroughly outplaying opposing backcourts with ease. It should be noted that the competition in the summer league and in the NBA are significantly different, but it's still noteworthy regardless.
With former reserve Williams on a different team, McCollum should almost certainly be the primary reserve for the Blazers. He can play either guard spot but is more of a scorer than distributor if he's inserted when Lillard heads to the bench.
By playing more minutes, McCollum will thrive with more opportunities to score while creating with the ball or hit outside shots while playing off-ball. Either approach would work splendidly in Portland's offense, with multiple creators and distributors on the court at once.
In addition, he has good size at 6'4" and could feasibly replace Matthews in the starting lineup in the future. Lest we forget perhaps the most important aspect when negotiating who has the most upside, McCollum was a senior when he was drafted.
Some might view it as a slight against his potential, having played four years of college basketball, but McCollum won't need the same span of time to come out of his shell. He's already experienced to a certain extent and will be able to contribute right away next season.
His teammate Lillard was also a senior when drafted. It's important to draw a line and understand that it doesn't mean McCollum will burst onto the NBA scene next season, only that he's got the tools to do so sooner rather than later.
Because of this, McCollum has the most upside of all the developing talents on the Blazers roster. He's experienced, finally healthy and has the right tools to succeed as an NBA guard. McCollum's size, shooting and ball-handling are all strong, and they'll be even more maximized when deployed in Portland's system.
In addition, he'll slide into a primary role off the bench and will be able to contribute right away. All signs are pointing to McCollum's foot being healthy with no setbacks in sight, which is good news for Blazers fans.
The mention of any sort of foot or knee injury will have fans blocking their ears (see Arvydas Sabonis, Bill Walton, Geoff Petrie, Oden, Roy), but they can sleep easy when it comes to McCollum. He might not be a franchise player or a game-changing talent, but his potential is high enough to anticipate his play next season.
The Blazers have a plethora of young talent on board, from Robinson to Barton, but McCollum outdoes all. It's no sure thing, but his upside instills excitement in Rip City.
Here's looking at you, kid.
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