San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals: Complete Week 3 Preview for Arizona
The first rivalry game has arrived for your NFC West-leading Arizona Cardinals as the San Francisco 49ers come to town looking for trouble in this Week 3 matchup. The Cardinals have not put up much of a fight over the past five seasons, dropping nine of 10 over that span to the 49ers.
Arizona has turned the ball over far too often against San Francisco recently, as noted by Kent Somers of AZCentral.com:
"No big secret why #azcardinals lost 9 of last 10 to 49ers. AZ 30 turnovers. 49ers, 7.
— Kent Somers (@kentsomers) September 18, 2014"
The Cardinals turned the ball over at least twice in nine of those 10 games and had at least four turnovers three times. The only game Arizona did not turn the ball over multiple times was the Monday night debacle in 2012 that saw quarterback Alex Smith go 18-of-19 passing (94.7 percent) for 232 yards, three touchdowns and a near-perfect 157.1 passer rating.
There is a very good chance quarterback Carson Palmer sits out for a second straight week, so we will assume in this preview he is out Sunday. All signs point in that direction, so that is that.
Here is your in-depth preview of the Cardinals as they face the 49ers.
Cardinals’ Week 2 Review
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Starting for an injured Palmer, Drew Stanton completed 14 of 29 passes (48.3 percent) for 167 yards, no touchdowns and, most importantly, no interceptions for a 66.3 rating. Not great, but not turning the ball over is a major plus.
The run game helped him immensely, as Andre Ellington carried 15 times for 91 yards (6.1 yards per carry).
Early success in the passing game and consistent success running the ball led to averaging 6.8 plays per drive, up from 5.7 during Week 1. The Cardinals converted five of 13 third downs, a respectable 38.5 percent conversion rate considering Stanton had not played in a real game in nearly four years.
On defense, defensive end Calais Campbell played some of the best football we have ever seen him play dating back to his days as a bright-eyed rookie in 2008. He led all defenders with 10 tackles—all solo—and should have had two sacks of New York Giants quarterback Eli Manning if not for, quite frankly, a terrible penalty called on cornerback Jerraud Powers.
Regardless, Campbell sacked Manning late to thwart a comeback attempt, helping seal the win.
Todd Bowles’ defense forced three turnovers of the Giants, including picking off Manning twice. Special teams added another, as linebacker Kenny Demens forced the ball out of Quintin Demps’ grasp on a kickoff.
One thing we need to see more of from Stanton in the 49ers game is leading drives after a turnover. He and the offense turned New York’s four turnovers into just six points.
If the defense is able to force turnovers and Stanton can turn an extra possession or two into touchdown drives, Arizona has a good shot against San Francisco this week.
News and Notes
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Backup Running Back Arrested
I’m not going to interject a strong opinion here or demand action, because the team has handled it well enough so far. But Arizona’s backup running back was arrested for allegedly head-butting his wife and breaking her nose, among other deplorable accusations.
Read the report from Matthew Casey of AZCentral.com if you want. That’s the end of it from me.
Abraham Flunking Tests
Outside linebacker John Abraham left the team following the Week 1 victory on Monday Night Football. He had just suffered a concussion and was debating whether his heart was still in the game.
It apparently is, as he returned to the team just a week later. But he is having difficulty passing the league’s concussion protocol tests, and that is keeping him from returning to practice and, ultimately, games.
Head coach Bruce Arians was on SiriusXM NFL Radio this week discussing the team, and he had this to say of Abraham (h/t Darren Urban of AZCardinals.com):
"He’s excited [to play]. When you get that first concussion, and he had a big one, it shakes you up sometimes. I think the rest and sitting back this weekend at home, he missed it a lot. He’s more than ready to roll for [us] down the stretch.
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Palmer Unsure When Nerve Will Wake Up
Remember when Peyton Manning missed the entire 2011 season with a nerve issue in his neck? He had a handful of surgeries to try to get the nerve right and ended up OK in the long run, but could a nerve issue take away the entire 2014 season for Palmer?
He voiced his frustration to Adam Green of ArizonaSports.com:
"It’s extremely frustrating. I wish I had a concrete answer or somebody knew exactly what to do to wake [the nerve] up. It’s not known. It’s just time—the only answer is time.
I’m hoping it doesn’t take any more time.
"
We all hope it doesn’t take any more time, Carson. Stanton can manage the offense, but against the 49ers defense it will be tough to sustain drives without the starting quarterback.
Birdgang Boo-Boo Brigade
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| Player | Position | Injury | Wednesday | Thursday | Friday | Game |
| John Abraham | OLB | Concussion | DNP | DNP | IR | IR |
| Andre Ellington | RB | Foot | DNP | LP | LP | Probable |
| Larry Foote | ILB | Shoulder | LP | LP | FP | Probable |
| Rob Housler | TE | Hip | - | DNP | DNP | Questionable |
| Kevin Minter | ILB | Quadriceps | FP | FP | FP | Probable |
| Alex Okafor | OLB | Thigh | DNP | DNP | DNP | Out |
| Carson Palmer | QB | Shoulder | LP | LP | LP | Questionable |
| Frostee Rucker | DT | Calf | DNP | DNP | LP | Questionable |
| Lyle Sendlein | C | Ankle | FP | FP | FP | Probable |
| Dave Zastudil | P | Groin | LP | DNP | DNP | Out |
*All injury statuses provided by AZCardinals.com.
The first thing we want to point out is that there are three new names on the injury report this week. Inside linebacker Larry Foote (shoulder), tight end Rob Housler (hip) and center Lyle Sendlein (ankle) are new members of the Birdgang Boo-Boo Brigade, so it will be interesting to see their statuses for game time on Sunday.
Outside linebacker John Abraham could technically be called new to the list, but considering we all knew he suffered a concussion during Week 1 and was not with the team last week, the news is not new.
(UPDATE: Abraham has been placed on injured reserve and will miss the rest of the 2014 season.)
Last week, Ellington did not practice either Wednesday or Thursday, so progress has been made this week, as he was a light participant Thursday. His foot must be feeling better—after averaging 6.1 yards per tote on 15 carries against the Giants, you'd expect he once again will be a full go this week.
After having a punt blocked in consecutive weeks to start the season, the Cardinals released punter Drew Butler and will go with injured veteran punter Dave Zastudil. He has been at this a long time, so it's probably not essential for him to participate in practice. Let him rest the groin and stay fresh and ready to go Sunday and beyond.
Defensive tackle Tommy Kelly likely will start again this week for Frostee Rucker. That's no problem for the defense, as Kelly played extremely well in New York and in relief of Rucker on Monday Night Football against the San Diego Chargers in Week 1.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Patrick Peterson vs. Michael Crabtree
Historically, Michael Crabtree has owned Patrick Peterson in their careers. In six games, Crabtree has caught 19 of 25 targets (76.0 percent) for 310 yards (16.3 yards per catch), four touchdowns, with no interceptions for a 156.7 passer rating, per Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
All four touchdowns came in two games during the 2012 season.
It’s a No. 1 versus a No. 1. Both are top athletes. There is no need to explain further. I’ll say this though: Peterson cannot let the officiating get under his skin this week. The referees got to him last week, and it affected his play.
Ted Larsen vs. Justin Smith
If ever there were a week to come back healthy both physically and mentally, Jonathan Cooper needs to make this week that week. Left guard Ted Larsen has not been good in the slightest so far, being pushed around and bullied both weeks.
Imagine a grizzly bear attacking a house cat. That, in a nutshell, is what defensive end Justin Smith will do to Larsen Sunday. The Cardinals should avoid running off Larsen’s backside, because Ellington and Co. will be destroyed if they do so.
Not to mention Stanton—or Palmer, God willing—on dropbacks. Smith has a sack in each of the first two games and is playing well early this season.
Cardinals’ X-Factor of the Week: Tyrann Mathieu
Speaking of players returning from injury, defensive back Tyrann Mathieu really needs to start at nickelback in place of Powers this week. Powers has been abused in two games this season, being targeted on nearly a quarter of his coverage snaps this season—16 targets on 69 pass-coverage snaps (23.2 percent), per PFF.
Mathieu would bring a boost to a secondary on the verge of being great. Not only is he good in coverage, but he times blitzes from the slot so well he often disrupts what the offense is doing.
He was active last week for the first time this season, and he played only five snaps. Was he expecting a bigger role in his debut? You bet, according to Josh Weinfuss of ESPN.com:
"I was expecting to play a little but more. It didn’t work out that way. We were playing great defense. Gave up a few plays but, yeah, I was expecting to play more going into the game.
"
Is he ready to give it a full go and play every snap on defense? Probably not. But more than five snaps would be a start. Get him at least half the snaps to ease Powers against a team that most assuredly will target him in coverage as much as possible.
Prediction
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As mentioned at the outset, we are assuming Palmer is out Sunday against the 49ers. That has a big impact on how this prediction is laid out.
On offense, look for a bigger role from Ellington. The loss of the backup running back means Stepfan Taylor will now fill the role as backup.
He will now be Ellington’s goal-line vulture and could even get his first rushing touchdown as a pro this week. Anymore, it seems Ellington will have to get his touchdowns from beyond 10 yards. It’s incredibly unfortunate, because he worked hard this offseason to add bulk with the assumed hope it would lead to more goal-line touches and, ultimately, more rushing touchdowns.
That has not been the case early.
Arians has his type of goal-line back, and Ellington is not it. Former Pittsburgh Steelers and Cardinals running back Rashard Mendenhall is a great example of what an Arians goal-line back looks like. The three-yards-and-a-cloud-of-dust types with big bodies and a low pad level are what Arians looks for in his goal-line back.
From 2009 to 2011, only Adrian Peterson (22) had more rushing touchdowns from three yards and closer than did Mendenhall (20).
Ellington will do some damage this week against the 49ers as long as Arians avoids running off left guard—or wherever Smith is lined up.
Defensively, it is imperative for the linebackers to stay home when in charge of spying quarterback Colin Kaepernick. He has proved over his career to be a thorn in the side of defenses whose linebackers vacate the middle of the field, because as soon as he feels pressure or determines there are no open receivers, he can and will take off down the field.
Those long strides make him difficult to catch.
It’s also important to note that San Francisco tight end Vernon Davis has been limited all week with an ankle injury he suffered in the fourth quarter of last week’s loss to the Chicago Bears. If he is limited on Sunday, that will help the defense hone in on Kaepernick more instead of worrying which safety is being beaten by Davis.
Whether it’s Palmer or Stanton behind center Lyle Sendlein, this should be a great game. The chances of victory increase if Palmer plays, but again, assume he won’t suit up. If the nerve in his throwing shoulder is giving him problems enough that he can’t throw at practice this week, it’s probably not just going to magically be fine on Sunday.
But we can hope it is magically fine on Sunday.
Prediction: 49ers 16, Cardinals 13*
*In the event Palmer starts and is unaffected by the shoulder issue, this score prediction will change to: Cardinals 24, 49ers 16
All stats gathered from Pro-Football-Reference.com unless otherwise stated.
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