Packers vs. Lions: What Are Experts Saying About Green Bay?

The Green Bay Packers travel to Ford Field on Sunday to face a Detroit Lions team that, after two weeks of play, boasts the No. 2 overall defense and No. 10 offense. 

Though any rankings heading into Week 3 should be taken with a grain of salt, the Lions have looked stout up front and have been more efficient than expected against the pass despite losing Chris Houston in free agency and injuries to safety James Ihedigbo and slot corners Bill Bentley and Nevin Lawson.

There are areas in which the Packers can exploit the Lions, one being the offense's relapse into inaccuracy demonstrated Week 2 at Carolina. After protecting the ball against the New York Giants, the Lions turned it over three times against the Panthers. 

But as they've demonstrated through two weeks, the Packers aren't without weaknesses of their own, including a slow start to the rushing attack, missed tackles and a banged-up offensive line struggling in pass protection and run blocking. 

Let's take a look at what those on the Packers beat are saying prior to the game Sunday, and then break down what they need to do to walk away from Ford Field 2-1 on the season.

Tyler Dunne: Covering Calvin Johnson Is a Chore

Rick Osentoski/Associated Press

Calvin Johnson is the Detroit Lions' X-factor in this matchup, and as Tyler Dunne of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel noted, the Packers have struggled to contain him in past contests. 

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There's been one other constant in this match-up: Covering Calvin Johnson is a chore. He's done more damage against Green Bay than any other team, catching 71 passes for 1,163 yards with 12 touchdowns in 12 games. Granted, Johnson is of course 2-10 in those games. But he'll again be the Packers' focus this week.

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Per Dunne, Johnson has played at his best against Green Bay over any other opponent: 71 passes for 1,163 yards with 12 touchdowns in 12 games. 

In Green Bay's Thanksgiving Day loss to Detroit last season, Johnson caught just six balls but totaled 101 yards and a score. He averaged 16.8 yards per reception.

According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), in that game Sam Shields was in primary coverage on Johnson; Johnson was targeted seven times while Shields was in primary coverage. Of those seven targets, Shields allowed three receptions for 46 yards and also intercepted a pass intended for Johnson. 

Matthew Stafford targeted Johnson once when Tramon Williams was shadowing him, and he allowed the reception for 19 yards, including six yards after the catch. 

Shields is Green Bay's top cover corner, and he'll surely be tasked with covering Johnson Sunday. His ability to make plays on the ball, as he demonstrated last time these two teams met, will be essential in covering the NFL's second-most prolific receiver heading into Week 3. Johnson has 247 yards over 13 receptions—trailing only Jordy Nelson.

Rob Demovsky: Jordy Nelson Is Being Targeted at a Record Rate

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ESPN.com's Rob Demovsky, citing a statistic from ESPN Stats & Information, noted that Jordy Nelson is being targeted at a record rate two games into the season...and he thinks that may continue into Week 3 at Detroit. 

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For his part, Nelson does not think he will continue to be targeted at this pace, an average of 15 times per game. Rodgers, however, might have other ideas. 

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That stat states that Nelson has been targeted 42.3 percent of the time that he has gone out on a route. By Pro Football Focus' count, he has been thrown at 30 times, bringing in 18 receptions for a total of 292 yards. 

Aaron Rodgers tends to spread the ball out much more than he has through the first two weeks of the 2014 season, but a confluence of factors have led to Nelson's increase in targets.

The first is that Eddie Lacy has had trouble finding an open lane to start the season. Averaging 18.9 carries per game in 2013, Lacy had 12 carries against the Seattle Seahawks in Week 1 and 13 against the New York Jets last week. Green Bay's game plan to start the season in Seattle included plays designed to utilize Lacy, with fewer receivers on the field, but the Seattle defense put an end to that pretty early in the game.

Again against New York, the Packers found that their opponent was zeroed in on preventing the run. ""The way the defense played had a lot to do with throwing the ball as much as we did," Mike McCarthy said in a press conference, per Packers.com.

So Rodgers took to the air, and found immediate success with Nelson. And that's the second factor involved in Nelson's increased targets—he's turning them into something. His 292 yards have been gained over 131 snaps through two weeks, per Pro Football Focus. That includes 112 yards after the catch. 

Would the Packers like to be more two-dimensional in moving the ball? Sure. But one of the greatest benefits of having a strong run game is that it forces opponents to adjust and frees up opportunities to pass the ball on the outside. That's already happening, just by Lacy's presence on the field. 

With Detroit's front seven, which has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards with 115, the Packers will continue to see opportunities to involve Nelson on Sunday. 

Ryan Wood: Lions' Defensive Line Could Give Packers Offense Fits

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

Perhaps the most important matchup between any of Green Bay's and Detroit's units Sunday will be the Packers offensive line versus the Lions defensive line, as Ryan Wood noted on PackersNews.com.

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Detroit has the defensive line to give Green Bay's offense fits. With injuries, the Packers offensive line has certainly struggled in both run and pass blocking. Whoever wins that matchup will probably have the better day.

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Green Bay's offensive line, through two weeks, grades out 18th in the league in pass-blocking and 29th in run blocking, per Pro Football Focus. Derek Sherrod, stepping in for an injured Bryan Bulaga, has been particularly poor in pass protection, allowing three sacks, two hits and two hurries on Aaron Rodgers over three games. 

Mike McCarthy is "more optimistic" about Bulaga returning this week than he was last, per Wood, and that would certainly put this offensive line in a better position to take on the Lions' stout front. 

Meanwhile, Detroit's defense, which heading into Week 3 is No. 2 overall, has allowed the second-fewest rushing yards (115) in the NFL so far this season and is tied for sixth in sacks (six). The Packers have allowed the second-most sacks in the league with seven. 

These patterns will continue on Sunday if Green Bay's offensive line can't create opportunities for Eddie Lacy and is unable to protect Rodgers.

Bob McGinn: Under Mike McCarthy, Packers Have Always Owned Lions

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

As Bob McGinn of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel pointed out, the Packers have done incredibly well against the Lions during Mike McCarthy's tenure as head coach. But the two losses they have suffered to Detroit during that time both occurred at Ford Field:

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The Packers under coach Mike McCarthy have owned the Lions. He's 14-2 against Detroit, and in the defeats Aaron Rodgers either didn't play because of a broken collarbone (November 2013) or was knocked out shortly before halftime because of a concussion (December 2010). Both of those Lions' victories, 7-3 four years ago and 40-10 last Thanksgiving, were played at Ford Field.

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The Lions under new head coach Jim Caldwell are a different squad than they were under Jim Schwartz. On the other hand, a Packers offense led by Aaron Rodgers will look very different than the Matt Flynn-led unit the Lions manhandled in their 30-point rout of Green Bay last Thanksgiving. 

Still, Ford Field is a difficult place to play, and it was at home in Week 1 that the Lions embarrassed the New York Giants 35-14 to start the season. Detroit faltered in Week 2 at Carolina, so Week 3's matchup will be determined in large part by which Lions team shows up. 

The factor in Green Bay's favor is that, while the Packers seemed to have corrected against the Jets issues that plagued them Week 1 against Seattle—missed tackles and poor defensive line play being chief among them—the Lions dipped in Week 2, turning the ball over three times. 

A healthy Rodgers has never lost to Detroit in 16 matchups. Though the Green Bay offense has been hampered thus far by questionable play-calling and a weaker-than-expected running game, it's hard to imagine his first loss to the Lions will come this Sunday.

But if it does, it would be fitting to occur at Ford Field.  

Mike Spofford: Missed Tackles Could Be a Challenge Against Lions

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Packers.com writer Mike Spofford cautions that the Packers can't let Lions weapons like Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush break away for big plays on Sunday:

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I'll go back to tackling, too. Calvin is tough to bring down, and Reggie Bush still has a lot of wiggle. Solid gains can rupture into big plays if you let those guys break tackles.

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Green Bay missed 18 tackles Week 1 against the Seattle Seahawks, looking like the worst team in the league wrapping up ball-carriers. The Packers improved dramatically in Week 2 against the New York Jets, bringing the total down to three. 

Jamari Lattimore stepping into the lineup at middle linebacker in place of an injured Brad Jones may have helped in that department. Jones alone accounted for three of Green Bay's 18 missed tackles in Week 1. 

As Spofford alluded to, wrapping up ball-carriers will be vital for Green Bay defense, as the Lions can use Bush and Johnson to create mismatches and make big plays.

It's encouraging that the tackling looked so much improved during Week 2, but considering how much the issue plagued the team in 2013 (when the Packers had 127 missed tackles), it's hard to believe the problem has been fully resolved.