Predicting the NBA's Biggest Win-Total Increases for 2014-15
It’s that time of year again—a time when the world’s foremost basketball prognosticators gather to offer their best guesses for the season to come. And get them completely wrong.
That won’t stop us from trying, of course. Today’s challenge: predicting the 10 teams that stand to author the biggest boosts to their regular-season win counts for the 2014-15 campaign.
Some of the teams will be obvious. We don’t want to spoil anything, but we’ll give you a cleverly disguised hint: Kevin James.
Others are looking to rebound after truly woeful performances a year ago, while still others hope to continue their climb up the conference-standings ladder.
It’ll likely be many moons before anyone comes close to topping the Boston Celtics’ 42-win improvement between 2006-07 and 2007-08. But one team on this list might not be that far off.
For those of you wondering whether the Providence Steamrollers made the cut, this is the last time I’ll say it: They’ve been defunct since 1949. Stop asking.
Charlotte Hornets (4 Games)
1 of 10
2013-14 Record: 43-39
2014-15 Prediction: 47-35
When the past two seasons have seen you author win increases of 14 and 22 games respectively, that tells us two things: First, you were probably terrible the year before that (they won seven games in 2011-12); and second, you’ve exhausted your massive leaps for the decade.
The Charlotte Hornets emerged as one of the East’s surprise playoff teams a season ago. Led by a plucky core of Kemba Walker, Gerald Henderson and Al Jefferson, Charlotte leveraged head coach Steve Clifford’s topnotch defensive scheme toward a solid—if not entirely exciting—2013-14 campaign.
And while the Hornets would bow out to the Miami Heat in short, four-game order, the addition of Lance Stephenson this summer was exactly the kind of move Charlotte needed to take that next step.
Don’t be surprised if the Hornets finish as a top-five team in overall defensive efficiency. Whatever their ultimate fate, so long as the Walker-Stephenson-Jefferson trio remains intact, this is a playoff shoo-in in the East.
Boston Celtics (5 Games)
2 of 10
2013-14 Record: 25-57
2014-15 Prediction: 30-52
We struggled a bit with this one. Not because we think there’s a chance the Boston Celtics will be any good (they won’t), but because Rajon Rondo remains the circus train’s worth of elephants in the room.
If the Celtics were indeed to pull off a Rondo trade, it’s almost certain the return haul—picks, young assets and expiring contracts basically—would make Boston worse in the short term. Like, fewer-wins-than-it-had-a-year-ago worse.
If, however, general manager Danny Ainge feels compelled (by the poor play of rookie point guard Marcus Smart perhaps) to try and make Rondo the team’s future cornerstone, it wouldn’t be shocking to find the Celtics flirting with a mid-30s win total.
It’s a lot of ifs, to be sure. Here’s what we know: With Smart, fellow rookie James Young, frontcourt youngsters Jared Sullinger and Kelly Olynyk and second-year coach Brad Stevens, Boston’s rebuilding plan is still years away from being fully realized.
We’re chalking this slight jump in wins up to two things: Rondo being healthy for two-thirds of the season and Stevens being too good a coach to allow a standings backslide.
Milwaukee Bucks (6 Games)
3 of 10
2013-14 Record: 15-67
2014-15 Prediction: 21-61
Rome wasn’t built in a day and, as it turns out, neither is Milwaukee. Which is like Rome, except on a lake in America and with a lot more beer and cheese.
With rookie sensation Jabari Parker set to join a fresh-faced fray that already includes the magnetic Giannis Antetokounmpo and a pair of young, rangy beasts in John Henson and Larry Sanders, the Bucks are exciting. They’re fresh. They’re up and coming.
They’re also really, really…really…really bad. Still, new head coach Jason Kidd—just months removed from an awkward episode ending with Kidd being dumped by the Brooklyn Nets—is sure to have the ear of his charges. Short of casting some kind of ancient runic spell, however, the wins will remain in short supply.
As bad as the East remains, it's been so bad for so long that eventually the conference’s youth movement is bound to show its mettle. That, in turn, means an even more competitive bottom tier. Unfortunately for the Bucks, bright as their future is, they still have plenty in the way of upstart talent to contend with.
Denver Nuggets (6 Games)
4 of 10
2013-14 Record: 36-46
2014-15 Prediction: 42-40
There was no discernable disaster that caused the Denver Nuggets to hemorrhage 21 games between the 2012-13 and 2013-14 seasons. Although losing all three of Danilo Gallinari, J.J. Hickson and JaVale McGee to injury didn't help.
Playing under first-year coach Brian Shaw, the Nuggets struggled to recapture their offensive magic from the season previous, dropping from fifth in offensive efficiency to 16th en route to a frustrating 36-win campaign.
The good news: With Gallinari set to return, Kenneth Faried fresh off straight-up FIBA dominance and two-way stud Arron Afflalo set to join the ranks, Denver should trend its way back to being an elite-level NBA offense.
The bad news: The West is still the West, and it’s hard to see the Nuggets—lacking as they are a legitimate scoring threat—making much more than marginal improvements this season.
Sadly, 42 wins likely won’t be enough to land a playoff spot, putting Shaw immediately on the hot seat and the Nuggets themselves on the cusp of the game’s most damning fate: middling purgatory with no end in sight.
Golden State Warriors (7 Games)
5 of 10
2013-14 Record: 51-31
2014-15 Prediction: 58-24
Speaking of hot seats, Mark Jackson couldn’t even use a 51-win season—a four-win improvement over the season before—to save himself from his.
Enter Steve Kerr, the longtime NBA broadcaster and former Phoenix Suns general manager now tasked with accomplishing what Jackson couldn’t: turning the Golden State Warriors into bona fide championship contenders.
With arguably the best starting five in the business at his disposal (Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson, Andre Iguodala, David Lee and Andrew Bogut), Kerr certainly has the foundation for achieving that very feat.
The question now becomes if Kerr’s triangle-inspired offense will be enough to turn what was by all accounts a middling offense a year ago into a straight-up hardwood juggernaut—while getting the bench to pull more of its weight.
Coming off stellar showings with Team USA, Curry and Thompson are poised take their respective offensive efficiencies to ever-higher heights. That’s great news for the Warriors and absolutely terrifying for everyone else.
So long as Golden State can stay healthy, there’s no reason to believe it can’t contend for one of the West’s top two seeds. Fifty-eight wins could put the Warriors right there, particularly if the Oklahoma City Thunder or San Antonio Spurs—two teams who yet again neglected to make any significant summer moves—somehow stumble.
Detroit Pistons (8 Games)
6 of 10
2013-14 Record: 29-53
2014-15 Prediction: 37-45
We wanted it to work. We really did. At the same time, only a few were courageous enough to say what everyone else was thinking: Plopping Josh Smith alongside Andre Drummond and Greg Monroe is just a bad idea.
The Detroit Pistons found this out the hard way, sputtering to a dismal 29-win campaign. Of course, firing your coach midway through the season doesn’t help either.
The man tasked with righting the ship: Stan Van Gundy, the team’s new coach and president and the brains behind what hopes to be a quick, talent-rich rebuild. In Drummond, Van Gundy boasts a tantalizing franchise cornerstone not unlike a young Dwight Howard around whom SVG managed to built a viable contender with the Orlando Magic during the mid-to-late 2000s.
Following an awkward summer that saw Monroe and the Pistons haggle over the big man’s long-term future, the latter finally agreed to return for his $5 million qualifying offer. Indeed, it’ll be fascinating to see how Van Gundy will choose to utilize a player who, for all his undeniable talent, is likely bolting for greener pastures next summer.
However, if it means putting Josh Smith at his more natural power forward position and laying down the foundations of a Drummond-centric franchise, limiting Monroe’s minutes might be the only option.
Whatever his ultimate plan, Van Gundy is exactly the kind of coach Detroit needs at the helm—smart, tough and forward-thinking enough to see the franchise forest for the trees. Which is why we expect quite the leap indeed from Motown’s finest this season.
Los Angeles Lakers (8 Games)
7 of 10
2013-14 Record: 27-55
2014-15 Prediction: 35-47
Just how historic was the Los Angeles Lakers’ woeful 27-win campaign a season ago? See for yourself.
More like the walk of shame, huh? Please don’t X-out of this slideshow.
When you hitch your wagon to a 36-year-old superstar coming off a pair of serious injuries, it’s almost a guarantee your seasons will be feast or famine. The bad news for the Lakers is that they’re still a year or two away (at least) from recapturing their status as contenders. And that’s assuming they’re able to reel in one or two big-name free agents the next two summers.
After Bryant, the talent drop-off is steep indeed: Carlos Boozer, Jeremy Lin, Nick Young, rookie Julius Randle—and that’s the top tier.
Indeed, as Bleacher Report’s Dan Favale recently wrote, the Lakers will be toeing a fine line between marginal improvement on the one hand and a repeat of last year’s unmitigated disaster on the other:
"For the Lakers to be better than expected—not even a playoff team; just better than expected—they need to be elite in one area of the game, lest the ultra-competitive Western Conference swallow them whole. Problem is, the Lakers aren't built to defend, Scott isn't an a brilliant offensive mind and their most valuable scorer, Bryant, has appeared in six games since April 2013.
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At the same time, it’s hard to imagine L.A. possibly being worse than it was a season ago. An eight-win increase might sound overly optimistic, but we’re banking on a healthy Bryant and an engaged Byron Scott—who’s always been somewhat underrated as a coach—resurrecting the pride of this gold-standard franchise.
Chicago Bulls (10 Games)
8 of 10
2013-14 Record: 48-34
2014-15 Prediction: 58-24
Seriously, Tom Thibodeau could coach five broken vacuum cleaners to 40 wins. Now that he has Derrick Rose back in the fold and a resurgent Pau Gasol conducting his unique brand of low-post wizardry on the block? Forget about it.
True, Rose looked more than a little bit rusty during his run with Team USA, which saw the former MVP coming off the bench to spell the comparably ascendant Kyrie Irving. Still, Gasol’s presence alone spares Rose the pressure of being Chicago’s primary playmaker every time down the floor.
Chicago’s outstanding defense will still be there. That’s a given. But it’s Thibodeau’s offense that stands to benefit significantly from the pairing of Gasol and Joakim Noah—the latter of whom, let’s not forget, was a walking triple-double machine for stretches of the 2013-14 season.
The Cleveland Cavaliers remain the heavy favorites in the East. But if there’s one team with the coach and the potential chemistry to stop LeBron James and Co. in their tracks, it’s Chicago. Fifty-eight wins—book it.
New Orleans Pelicans (11 Games)
9 of 10
2013-14 Record: 34-48
2014-15 Prediction: 45-37
We know, we know: You’re tired of hearing how Anthony Davis is poised for interplanetary basketball domination. Just in case you hadn’t, however, here’s Kevin Durant—no slouch himself—espousing on the subject:
"I know how good [Davis] is going to be," Durant told NBA.com's Jim Eichenhofer after one of the USA practices. "I know how good he is now, but I know how good he’s going to be. He’s an MVP-caliber player. So he’s next. He’s next in line—a guy that has grown so much in just a year."
But the New Orleans Pelicans’ much-improved prospects go beyond the next-level prospects of their frontcourt cornerstone.
With the addition of Omer Asik—acquired for a pittance from the Houston Rockets—the Pelicans are poised to blow last year’s 25th-ranked defense completely out of the water. Indeed, between Asik and Davis, head coach Monty Williams wields perhaps the game’s most formidable defensive duo upfront.
And while Asik’s offensive anemia will always present strategic issues, the improved backcourt dynamics of Jrue Holiday, Eric Gordon and Tyreke Evans is more than enough to keep the Pelicans squarely in the upper half of the league in terms of offensive efficiency.
This isn’t to say 45 wins will be enough for New Orleans to sneak into the playoffs. As a sizeable next step for what’s looking like a legitimate franchise on the rise, however, it’ll do just fine.
Cleveland Cavaliers (29 Games)
10 of 10
2013-14 Record: 33-49
2014-15 Prediction: 62-20
For those of you expecting to see the Philadelphia 76ers occupying this slideshow’s top spot, we apologize. Also: You should probably be watching things other than basketball.
Look: LeBron James, Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving could top last year’s 33-win season by themselves. Throw in basketball brainiac David Blatt, the feisty Dion Waiters, the still-developing Tristan Thompson and wily vets Anderson Varejao, Shawn Marion and Mike Miller, and you don’t just have the one of the best teams in the league; you have the blueprint for a legitimate NBA dynasty.
To be sure, the Cavs won’t be gangbusters out of the gate. Just as James experienced with the Miami Heat, it’ll likely take some time for all Cleveland’s pieces to properly mesh. But when they do, we could bear witness to one of the most unstoppable offensive forces the league has ever seen.
