Oakland Raiders vs New England Patriots: Complete Week 3 Preview for New England
While no NFL team can ever take a game for granted, the New England Patriots are likely facing their cushiest matchup of the year this week, a home contest against the hapless Oakland Raiders.
With arguably the league's most barren roster and a head coach in turmoil, the Raiders reside at or near the bottom of virtually every power ranking.
If the Patriots are truly Super Bowl contenders, then Sunday's contest will mostly represent a battle for self-improvement. New England has prided itself upon mental toughness, which requires both rebounding from adversity—as they did last week—and professionally approaching inferior competition.
The Pats possess enough flaws that victory is not a given without further progression.
One would expect such progress based on New England's track record under Bill Belichick, but at the moment, issues in the passing game, offensive line, interior pass rush and special teams coverage represent significant warts on a team with championship-or-bust expectations.
A Week 3 victory is the most important goal, but considering the level of opposition, forging continuity and reliability at most positions represents an almost equally crucial benchmark.
With that in mind, let's take a look at the most important players and matchups to watch in the Patriots' home opener.
Patriots Week 2 Recap
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After a plethora of issues emerged in New England's Week 1 loss, most of those problems resolved themselves in the Patriots' 30-7 victory over the Minnesota Vikings.
A return to one-gapping 4-3 defensive principles saw the likes of Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich bounce back after rough debuts, while the secondary received a boost from Logan Ryan's insertion at right cornerback.
As such, do not expect many lineup changes on that side of the ball. Ryan is not the most physically imposing press corner, but his intelligent hand usage and instinctive ball skills allowed him to largely neutralize the 6'2" Cordarrelle Patterson.
Whether he lines up against the 6'1" James Jones or the 6'3" Rod Streater this week, Ryan will need to lean on similarly refined technique to thrive again.
However, the Patriots' passing game was the one remaining eyesore from Sunday's victory. Those limitations may partially stem from offseason surgeries hampering Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Dobson. Everyone knows the versatility Gronk infuses the offense with, while Dobson likely represents the Patriots' best perimeter threat.
Until those two return to full workloads, expect steady doses of screens, slants and other short-to-intermediate in-breaking routes.
Perhaps Shane Vereen will receive more snaps this week, if only to attract some attention away from Julian Edelman.
That we have yet to mention the offensive line illustrates last week's significant improvement. Josh McDaniels did a better job of protecting the still-gelling unit with heavy doses of run calls and three-step passes, but let's see if the Patriots mix in more deep drops this week.
Until the passing game achieves some semblance of diversity, the offense as currently constituted is not championship-caliber—even if the potential exists.
News and Notes
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Brady Looking to Spread the Ball
At the moment, the Patriots possess one of the most unbalanced passing offenses in the league. Of Tom Brady's 74 "aimed" passes (passes that were not thrown away, batted down, etc.), Edelman and Gronkowski have received 32, according to Pro Football Focus (subscription required).
Consider the latter's limited usage at this point, and that is a relatively astounding number that illustrates Brady's tunnel vision at the moment.
To his credit, Brady understands the shackles such a mindset places on the offense. According to The Providence Journal's Mark Daniels, Brady is working to balance out his target distribution:
"I think that’s definitely a big part of what we’re trying to do offensively, to make us hard to defend, is to throw the ball to everybody. [Edelman and Gronkowski] have seen the majority of the throws and I’ve got to do a better job of finding the other guys. Hopefully it shows up this week in our passing game. We’re going to work hard this week to see if we can all get on the same page more often.
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The Patriots' play-calling has not really given the opportunity for the likes of Brandon LaFell and Danny Amendola to shine. With the Patriots relying on two-back and two-tight end sets, their playing time has been diminished as well.
Thus, even if Brady makes a more conscientious effort to look at his secondary targets, New England has adopted a more conservative offensive approach to protect the offensive line—something that will place a firm ceiling on the third and fourth receivers' production.
Penalties an Emphasis
Though the Patriots are typically one of the league's most disciplined teams, penalties have been a constant woe over the first two weeks.
Only San Francisco has exceeded New England's 24 penalties over the first two weeks, as the Pats set a dubious franchise record with 15 flags last week. As the Boston Globe's Michael Whitmer (subscription required) relays, Josh McDaniels highlighted penalties as the top priority for the Pats to remedy:
"I’d say the No. 1 thing that stood out to me was the penalties. The times where we hurt ourselves, and put ourselves in really long-yardage situations, it’s just going to be tough to overcome those. The players know that, we’ve addressed it, and we’ll continue to try to coach it hard.
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The Patriots have not exactly been victimized by the league's new points of emphasis, as they have just two combined illegal contact and defensive holding calls. Rather, it has been more bizarre infractions, such as two offensive pass interference calls on pick plays, that have sabotaged drives for New England.
Based on track record, expect this penalty rate to level off.
While flags do not necessarily hold a strong correlation with winning—the Seattle Seahawks were the league's most penalized team last season—the Pats will surely seek to recoup some of the hidden yardage they have squandered thus far.
Hightower Thriving
"Dont'a Hightower's 8 total pressures leads the Patriots despite only rushing the passer 31 times.
— James Christensen (@NEPatriotsDraft) September 16, 2014"
After being miscast as a roaming, sideline-to-sideline coverage linebacker last year, Dont'a Hightower's increased role as an edge-rusher has led to a third-year breakout. Hightower has adopted a much more versatile role that includes edge-rushing, interior gap control against the run and pass coverage.
According to Pro Football Focus (subscription required), Hightower has posted the second-highest pass-rushing productivity among all 3-4 outside linebackers so far, behind only Jason Babin.
Though he has only rushed the passer on 54.5 percent of his snaps, those numbers figure to increase as he continues to flash excellent power and persistence on his rushes.
Indeed, the Patriots' best pressure has come when pairing Hightower with Chandler Jones on the right side of the defense. Such an overwhelming power-speed combination has created some enticing one-on-one matchups.
If offenses devote extra protection to that side (chipping tight end, running back, etc.), that could potentially create more opportunities for the likes of Rob Ninkovich and Dominique Easley.
With Jerod Mayo and Jamie Collins providing rangy coverage at the second level, Hightower's reduced responsibilities have yielded significantly more production.
His emergence has provided a crucial third edge-rushing option behind Jones and Ninkovich, providing the Pats with more pass-rushing depth than they have enjoyed in years.
Injury Report
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| Don Jones | S | Questionable |
| Michael Buchanan | DE | Questionable |
| Jamie Collins | LB | Questionable |
| Dan Connolly | C/RG | Probable |
| Alfonzo Dennard | CB | Questionable |
| Julian Edelman | WR | Probable |
| Rob Gronkowski | TE | Probable |
| Sealver Siliga | DT | Probable |
| Shane Vereen | RB | Questionable |
| Ryan Wendell | C | Questionable |
While the odds suggest the Patriots' injury luck will turn eventually, New England remains one of the healthiest teams in the league through the first two games.
Though the likes of Dennard and Collins have missed games, their absences seem more precautionary than reason for alarm.
Vereen is a new addition to the injury report this week, as he is dealing with a shoulder injury that may explain his reduced Week 2 workload. If the fourth-year back is limited against Oakland, perhaps rookie James White will see his first game action of the season.
Edelman was also dinged up last week, taking a pair of spills where he landed hard on his head. Edelman is actually listed with a back injury, however, so any concern about concussion-like symptoms seems unfounded without further information.
Otherwise, the most pressing issue looks like depth in the trenches.
Siliga has played with a club on his hand throughout the season, but has ably held his own in base packages next to Vince Wilfork.
Buchanan's absence is less concerning with Dont'a Hightower's emergence as a viable edge-rusher, but given the heavy snaps that Hightower and Chandler Jones have played so far, his return might provide a necessary rest for those workhorses.
All injury information via ESPNBoston.com's Mike Reiss.
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X-Factors and Matchups to Watch
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Rob Gronkowski vs. Charles Woodson
The 37-year-old Woodson is not the same uber-versatile shutdown weapon he was in his prime, but he remains the leader and best player of the Oakland secondary.
Pro Football Focus (subscription required) indicates Woodson has picked off one pass and has yet to allow a reception of more than nine yards this season, which illustrates his exemplary instincts in anchoring the back end of the defense.
Though Woodson is more of a roaming center fielder than a man-to-man matchup safety, the Raiders figure to shade their best defensive back toward Gronkowski—particularly in the red zone.
Gronk has yet to bear a full workload or run a full route tree since his return, so even with his size advantage, the Patriots tight end could have a difficult time getting open with a linebacker and Woodson bracketing him in the middle of the field.
The Patriots were largely able to run the ball in the red zone last week, a strategy they figure to duplicate considering that the Raiders have conceded five yards per carry thus far.
Nevertheless, Gronkowski remains the fulcrum of New England's red-zone offense, so expect Oakland to devote its top resource towards slowing down Brady's go-to scoring target.
Chandler Jones vs. Donald Penn
Fresh off the best game of his career, Jones faces a rise in competition against the Oakland left tackle. Despite being a cap casualty in Tampa Bay, Penn remains one of the league's steadiest all-around tackles, having experienced a renaissance during the start of his Oakland tenure.
But the 6'5" Penn is not exactly the lithest tackle around, and can be susceptible to speed rushers like Jones.
While New England's third-year outside linebacker has worked to diversify his arsenal, reverting to his trusted assortment of swims and rips should allow him to turn the corner and pressure Derek Carr on a consistent basis.
In reality, the Patriots figure to fluster the rookie quarterback mostly by blitzing, since Carr has compiled a horrific 4.2 QBR when blitzed, according to SBNation.com's Levi Damien.
If the interior Oakland line and running backs must protect against A- and B-gap blitzes, Jones should exploit his steady diet of one-on-ones with Penn.
Nate Solder vs. Khalil Mack
The fifth overall pick in 2014 Mack has fulfilled his reputation as the most destructive rookie defender outside of Jadeveon Clowney.
The Raiders' "Sam" linebacker was a dangerous chess piece against the Houston Texans last week, as his five stops and two quarterback pressures made him one of the few Raiders defenders to register a positive performance.
Mack often serves as a de facto right defensive end when Oakland brings in sub-package personnel, meaning that Nate Solder will see plenty of the Raiders' impressive rookie.
Solder bounced back from a rough debut and gave up just a single pressure against Minnesota, though his mind-boggling three-penalties-in-two-snaps stretch tainted some of that performance.
At his best, Solder possesses the power to anchor and lateral agility to slide-step as well as any tackle in the league. That versatility is critical against someone like Mack, whose athleticism enables him to win through either power or speed—even as he continues to develop a real pass-rushing tool kit.
If the Pats decide to open up the passing game against a mostly benign-looking Oakland pass rush, Solder will be the lineman with the toughest assignment.
X-Factor: Jamie Collins
Collins will receive a difficult test in his return to the lineup, as the Patriots' best coverage linebacker will likely match up against Raiders fullback Marcel Reece.
The 29-year-old defies positional categorization, for much like Miami's Charles Clay, he is a Swiss Army knife that the Raiders will line up in a variety of positions.
Whether Reece is a fullback, tight end, halfback or slot receiver, Collins figures to draw the assignment. Reece is not particularly physically imposing, but his quickness out of cuts threatens the middle of the field and will force Collins to play with containment discipline.
Oakland does have some intriguing perimeter weapons, headlined by James Jones and Rod Streater, but the secondary is New England's strength.
Last week, the Collins-less Patriots covered tight ends and halfbacks with bracket coverage between linebackers and safeties. Against a more formidable test in Reece, it will be interesting to see if the Pats repeat that strategy or delegate sole responsibilities to Collins.
Prediction
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To be blunt, a loss here would be stunning and raise plenty of questions about New England's long-term viability. Any sweeping judgments at this nascent stage of the season would be impetuous, but at the very least, the Patriots would dig themselves a hole in the division and conference race.
At the same time, New England is far from a complete team at the moment. That's a sentiment that applies to the entire league, but for Pats fans with lofty standards, expecting a walkover on Sunday is presumptuous.
Nevertheless, the Patriots possess far superior talent, and the Raiders look like an increasingly dysfunctional outfit that has failed to install the correct organizational leadership once again.
Derek Carr and Khalil Mack provide a promising base, but Oakland features a largely barren roster without enough long- or short-term solutions.
Again, while the Patriots should expect to evolve into Super Bowl contenders, they are not yet cohesive enough to blow out teams merely with their presence. Ultimately, though, even if the Pats have yet to approach their peak form, this represents one of the cushiest contests on their schedule.
Prediction: Patriots 32, Raiders 12
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