Breaking the Mold: Why the Knicks Need Tim Hardaway Jr. to Fulfill His Promise

There was something strangely familiar about Tim Hardaway Jr.’s rookie season.

After a promising first year, Hardaway became the third Knick in the last four seasons to be named to the NBA All-Rookie First Team. The other two, Landry Fields and Iman Shumpert, regressed after their first year.

For the Knicks to have any hope in 2014-15, they need Hardaway to break the recent tradition of rookies fizzling out.

The trend began in 2010-11, when Fields took the NBA by surprise and averaged 9.7 points, 6.4 rebounds and 1.9 assists in 31.0 minutes per game while shooting 49.7 percent from the field and 39.3 percent from three-point range. Speaking to the New York Post, Donnie Walsh went so far as to compare Fields to a young John Havlicek. The comparison was a stretch, even at the time, but Fields, a second-round pick, looked like the steal of the draft.

He couldn’t sustain it. Fields lost confidence in his second year, and his percentages dipped to 46.0 percent from the field and a ghastly 25.6 percent from three-point range. Even his free-throw shooting plummeted (76.9 percent to 56.2 percent).

By Year 4, Fields was averaging just 2.3 points in 10.7 minutes per game for Toronto (including 35 games in which he didn't play due to a coach's decision), putting his NBA career on life support.

Shumpert’s career arc has been tragic in its own way. Like Fields, Shumpert debuted with aplomb, averaging 9.5 points, 3.2 rebounds and 2.8 assists in 28.9 minutes per game. Shumpert didn't shoot as well as Fields (40.1 percent from the field and 30.6 percent from three) but earned a reputation as a lockdown defender and boasted a defensive rating of 101, excellent for a rookie.

Then he blew out his knee. It’s difficult to say how much the injury stunted Shumpert’s development, but it certainly didn’t help. His offensive game has barely improved in three seasons, if at all, and his defense has slipped too—a 108 defensive rating last season placed Shumpert in the bottom half of the league.

Sensing a pattern yet?

Last season Hardaway Jr. averaged 10.2 points, 1.5 rebounds and 0.8 assists in 23.1 minutes per game while shooting 42.8 percent from the field and 36.3 percent from beyond the arc. Although it’s clear that Hardaway is a more prototypical shooting guard than Fields or Shumpert, the numbers are strikingly similar.

Hardaway hasn't had to battle injuries like Shumpert, and confidence issues—which derailed Fields—are the least of Hardaway's concerns. But opponents now have a book on Hardaway. Teams are armed with a season of film and data documenting Hardaway’s weaknesses, which they will exploit.

Their target will be Hardaway’s soft underbelly: his defense.

Hardaway’s 114 defensive rating ranked 328th out of 337 players who logged 500 minutes last season, and the numbers bear out what was visible on the court: frequent mental lapses, failure to close out shooters and struggles guarding the pick-and-roll. If Hardaway has any designs on a successful NBA career, he must shore up his defense.

The “promising” part of “promising rookie year” was mainly limited to Hardaway’s offensive game, where he ran the floor like a gazelle and at times lit it up from range. Still, there were holes. Hardaway was too streaky, mostly due to poor shot selection.

Shedding his gunner mentality would go a long way for Hardaway.

If the Knicks want to entertain any notions of the playoffs next season, Hardaway must improve. The backcourt was shambolic last season. Felton was overweight and overmatched, Smith was incredibly erratic (even by his standards) coming off a marijuana suspension and knee surgery, and Shumpert—whose tense relationship with Mike Woodson was palpable—drifted in and out of games like a petulant teenager. And let’s not even get into the Beno Udrih fiasco.

Mercifully, Phil Jackson upgraded the backcourt in the offseason when he jettisoned Felton for Jose Calderon, a capable point guard with three-point shooting to complement an offense built around Carmelo Anthony. But Calderon is another weak defender, and pairing him with Hardaway could be a disaster unless Hardaway vastly improves on defense.

One way or another, the Knicks will be a bad defensive team next year; the question is how bad. They lost former Defensive Player of the Year Tyson Chandler, although by the end of last season it was clear Chandler had either checked out, was on the decline or both. How effectively new additions Samuel Dalembert and Jason Smith can plug the defensive holes remains to be seen.

To make matters worse, the perennially incompetent Andrea Bargnani will be back from injury, and the sieve-like Amar’e Stoudemire will demand minutes too. If Smith starts over Shumpert, it’s possible that Anthony will be the best individual defender in the Knicks’ starting lineup. Carmelo Anthony.

It’s a frightening thought. The silver lining is Hardaway, who unlike the rest of the roster (excluding rookie Cleanthony Early) can still improve. At 22 his NBA makeup is still elastic, and there’s no reason to believe that with his athletic ability he can’t become at least a par defender in the league. But he has miles to go.

Anyone can surprise in a rookie year. Building on it is different question altogether. If Hardaway goes the way of Fields and Shumpert, the Knicks will almost certainly be resigned to another year of sub-mediocre basketball. If he comes through on his promise, the Knicks just might show some promise of their own as they transition into a new era.

Advanced stats courtesy of Basketball-Reference.com.