Houston Texans Can't Win AFC South on Running Game and Defense Alone

Bill O'Brien's Houston Texans have shown some spread elements early in each of their two wins, but those have given way to 1980s football late in games: pound the rock and play defense. 

Arian Foster had a league-high 28 carries in Week 1 against Washington. As the Texans ground out their second win against the Raiders, Foster again finished with 28 carries, one behind DeMarco Murray for the league lead. The Texans added 18 other carries from other backs as they salted the game away against an irrelevant Raiders squad. 

So far, this has worked. The Texans are 2-0. If the Colts slip up against the Eagles on Monday night, Houston could carry a two-game lead over the consensus AFC South preseason favorite. 

	Time of Possession	Second half runs
vs. WAS	29:06	18
@ OAK	38:36	23

The truth is that this is such a bad division right now that a Foster-and-defense Houston squad could have a winning record in it. The truth is also that the Texans have ridden two poor opponents and some lucky breaks to where they are today. They will need to play better than they have thus far, and find better play from Ryan Fitzpatrick, to shoot the moon. 

Running back carries relating to wins is a classic mistake made by those who don't understand which hand washes the other. The Texans are not winning because they are running. They are running because they are winning. 

Fourteen of Houston's 46 carries came on one drive: a game-ending fourth quarter drive that chewed up nearly 10 minutes of game time. The Texans were winning 27-7. The game script was very favorable for the Texans to chew clock in Oakland as they got out to a quick two-score lead against a bad team.

In fact, per Advanced Football Analytics, the Texans have spent less than two minutes of this season with a sub-30 percent chance of winning. Based purely on the scorelines and down-and-distance, they entered halftime with a 79 percent chance of beating Washington, and they had a 91 percent chance of beating Oakland by the end of the first quarter. 

Not that Bill O'Brien wasn't already going to eschew using Fitzpatrick anyway, but with these game scripts, the Texans have hardly needed to bother rolling the dice downfield. Fitzpatrick attempted just four passes marked as "deep" in the NFL gamebooks (15 yards or further downfield) against Washington. Against Oakland, just one: a 25-yard catch for Garrett Graham when he turned around a linebacker in the middle of the field. 

Week	Quarter	Time	Target	Yards
1	1	13:48	80-A.Johnson	0
1	2	4:28	10-D.Hopkins	76
1	3	3:14	80-A.Johnson	0
1	4	3:06	80-A.Johnson	20
2	2	5:03	88-G.Graham	26

The Giants, who finished fourth in Football Outsiders' run defense DVOA in 2013, are up next. They've played respectable run defense against the Lions and Cardinals thus far, though it's hard to tell how they'll look on a seasonal basis through two games. 

The defense has been able to maintain those game scripts thus far, but they also have played two of the weakest offenses in the NFL. Robert Griffin couldn't keep his eyes downfield when blitzed. Derek Carr is a raw rookie who just played his second career game. 

Houston fans should remember last year's 2-0 start and take it to heart. Not because they don't have a chance to win the division, but because this team has yet to be put in a position where its clear weaknesses (run defense, pass offense) will be tested. The Texans are fortunate to not have a tough schedule ahead, but they will find themselves in a tougher position at some point.

Until that happens, and Houston proves it can handle playing from behind, they won't be taken as a serious contender for a playoff spot.