Red Sox 'Spending Big' on This Winter's Free-Agent Class Would Be Bad Idea

The chairman of the Boston Red Sox, Tom Werner, said on WEEI Radio on Thursday that the team has "a lot of money to spend and we're determined to go into the free agent market and improve the team."

While the sentiment is admirable, spending big in the free-agent market would be a mistake.

It's only been a little over two years since the Red Sox realized that spending big for players was a massive mistake. The team shipped out Adrian Gonzalez (acquired in a trade with the Padres before the 2011 season, then signed to a seven-year, $154 million pact in May of 2011), Josh Beckett (four-year, $68 million deal in April of 2010), Carl Crawford (seven-year, $142 million deal prior to the 2011 season) and utility man Nick Punto.

It was a massive admission of a mistake by the Red Sox, and it took new ownership in Los Angeles with deep pockets and a desperate need to make a splash to make it happen.

Since then, the Red Sox have refrained from making large commitments to players, with the exception of Dustin Pedroia, who inked an eight-year deal that began in 2014.

However, Pedroia's situation is unique. Not only does he embody what it means to be a player for the Red Sox; he signed an extremely team-friendly deal that hands him $110 million over that time period. Past that, the largest contract the Red Sox have committed to since admitting their mistakes in the past is Mike Napoli's two-year, $32 million deal.

Owner John Henry's stated aversion to long-term contracts for players over 30 is well-known, but Werner noted to Nick Cafardo of The Boston Globe (subscription required) that "the team has never issued an edict on the subject."

Meaning if general manager Ben Cherington wants to offer Tigers ace Max Scherzer a 10-year contract, there's nothing preventing him from doing so. However, the Red Sox would be best-served to adhere to a similar policy this offseason, particularly on offense. 

While the team certainly needs help in order to contend for the division in 2015, the team has already essentially settled its offense for next year with the addition of Yoenis Cespedes and Allen Craig at the trade deadline. Combined with the emergence of prospect Mookie Betts and the inking of Cuban Rusney Castillo to a contract, there's no need for a major splash on offense. 

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Werner seems to understand that, telling WEEI that it's "front-line pitching talent" that's needed. After dealing away Jon Lester and John Lackey, it's easy to see why—and the stable of prospects the team has won't save the day in 2015.

While the club has a fair amount of pitching prospects, only two of the prospects figure to hold relevance for Boston: Matt Barnes and Henry Owens, both of whom figure to contribute significantly no earlier than 2016. ESPN's Keith Law believes that both Barnes and Owens can be No. 3 starters or better, but the rest of the crew—Anthony Ranaudo and Allen Webster, in particular—are no better than back-end options, which won't cut it.

There's certainly no shortage of quality pitching set to hit the free-agent market, which will be led by former Red Sox ace Lester. Scherzer and Royals ace James Shields round out the top trio of free agents, although there are many secondary options available.

However, it's commonly known that signing a pitcher to a long-term deal is playing with fire—especially signing ones who hit free agency who tend to be in their late 20s or early 30s, meaning any long-term deal would take the pitcher into the mid-30s.

Not only is there a whole host of issues to worry about on the injury front, but age can change an ace to a forgotten man in a hurry. Tony Blengino of Fangraphs broke down long-term contract extensions for pitchers, and the results were not pretty. Long story short: avoid long-term deals.

For example, how do the deals for CC Sabathia and Justin Verlander look now?

One possibility that exists is going after Japanese pitcher Kenta Maeda, considered a smaller version of Masahiro Tanaka, as Cafardo writes. Boston could pony up the $25 million posting fee and then attempt to negotiate a long-term deal with the 26-year-old. That's one way of using the team's financial resources without committing long-term deals to players over 30 years old.

While there's no question Boston needs front-line pitching—and that it is in the team's best interest to acquire these pitchers in free agency so they can avoid giving up assets in trades—the club needs to keep in mind the lessons learned in other long-term contracts for pitchers and limit their offers to five years or less for those who will spend the majority of the deal in their 30s.

The club has enough dollars where they can tack on additional money beyond market value in exchange for a shorter contract. 

It's easy to look at the glitzy numbers of Lester (who, it must be mentioned, could possibly return to Boston on a short contract) and Scherzer and be sucked in, but how many Red Sox fans were excited about Carl Crawford? Adrian Gonzalez? How many long-term deals have to go awry before all 30 teams conclude that it's simply bad business?

Just because the Red Sox are one of the first teams to realize this doesn't mean they should give up on avoiding long-term, expensive deals that other clubs will hand out.

In the long run, the strategy should benefit the Red Sox. GM Ben Cherington would be well-served to ignore the words of Tom Werner.