NFL Crapshoot, Week 2: San Diego Chargers a Dangerous Test for Seattle Seahawks

Overreaction to Week 1 has become a self-aware pastime that is acknowledged by members of the general media.

Here’s the Sean Leahy of the Boston Globe telling you not to overreact to Week 1. Here’s Chris Chase of USA Today telling you not to overreact to Week 1. Here’s Frank Schwab of Yahoo Sports telling you not to overreact to Week 1. Here’s Daniel Kelley of SB Nation telling you not to overreact to Week 1 fantasy football outcomes.

Here’s Jerry Palm of CBS Sports telling you not to overreact to Week 1 in college football. The same goes for Bryan Fischer of NFL.com. And finally, Here’s Nick Kostos of Bleacher Report doing Yeomen’s work and sorting out said overreactions to Week 1.

You get it. But no matter how much shaming goes into Week 1 overreactions, it has become a pastime because NFL’s truncated schedule is conducive to fan and media overreactions. To their credit, there are historic playoff implications of starting with a 2-0 record as opposed to the dreaded 0-2 start.

Week 2 offers fertile ground for predictions by exploiting overreactions alone. After all, half of the league is undefeated, and the other half hasn’t won an NFL game in at least eight months. For those teams, it’s panic time. 

Here’s what I know will happen

I know the San Diego Chargers (+6) will cover against the Seattle Seahawks (via BOVADA)

The height of excessive hype comes when a defending Super Bowl champion looks dominant on national television against an NFL contender. This is exactly what happened during NFL kickoff last Thursday night, when the Seattle Seahawks outclassed the Green Bay Packers.

A win like that in a first outing is like introducing your girlfriend to your parents at a carefully planned dinner. After brilliantly scripting all her answers to questions you know your parents will ask, she passes the mom-and-dad test with flying colors. She does so well, in fact, mom asks when you two will get married. You just met her last week.

In this case, the Seahawks are the girlfriend and the public are your parents.

There’s already talk of a dynasty, and the public—currently pouring in 90 percent of the action on Seattle—is ready to see this squad stand at the Super Bowl altar.

But, potentially distracted by a Super Bowl rematch against the Denver Broncos in Week 3, Seattle is sandwiched by a talented San Diego team that is rarely a home underdog by a touchdown or more.

Seattle isn’t nearly the team on the road as it is at home. According to RJ Bell of Pregame.com, the Seahawks have only covered 42 percent of road contests in the last decade. Meanwhile, The Chargers tend to play up to their competition.

Five of San Diego’s seven losses in 2014 came to teams under .500, while six of their nine wins came against teams at .500 or better. It doesn't get any better than Seattle right now, which bodes well for San Diego at home.

Here’s what I think will happen

I think neither Eli Manning nor Carson Palmer will throw an interception

The New York Giants play the Arizona Cardinals this weekend in a matchup of the NFL’s two most prolific interception throwers over the last decade.

According to NFL.com, since 2004, Eli Manning and Carson Palmer have had the most games with multiple interceptions. In that span, Manning has had 47 games with two or more interceptions. Palmer has had 43 of these games.

So common logic dictates that Sunday will be an interception frenzy filled with turnovers, right? Probably. Have you seen Eli Manning play lately?

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In the last two seasons and change, Manning has basically played himself out of the first ballot of the Hall of Fame. If he keeps it up, his legacy will be indistinguishable from that of Phil Simms.

After another ugly performance on Monday Night Football, Manning seems determined to remain the interception king (18 TDs; 27 INTs in 2013 with two more on Monday night). Nobody is coming into Manning’s house to force more turnovers than him. That’s his crown they’re messing with.

Still, I’m going the other way. It’s just too obvious that both quarterbacks would each have multi-interception games in this spot. I bet neither throws a single interception. Without that type of irony and unpredictability, this would be the NFL.

Here’s what I’m probably wrong about

I’m probably wrong, but the Kansas City Chiefs will beat the Denver Broncos outright

The negative impact of a looming Super Bowl rematch goes both ways.

Denver is playing a division rival with more experience and film against its high-powered offense than non-divisional foes. Coming off a nationally televised win, the Broncos have a bit too much value, especially playing against a Chiefs team that looked awful at home against the Tennessee Titans.

Kansas City Chiefs head coach Andy Reid was admitting his in-game flaws liberally following the disaster and intimated that dynamic weapons Jamaal Charles and Travis Kelce will see more touches. “Not giving [Charles] the ball more than seven times is negligence on my part,” Reid told Terez Paylor of the Kansas City Star (h/t ProFootballTalk's Josh Alper).

The Chiefs also get Dwyane Bowe back from a one-game suspension, which is important to those of you in 20-team fantasy football leagues.

Kansas City won’t be nearly the juggernaut they were for the first half of last season. Their schedule is too tough compared to last season—when they also had an abnormally high turnover differential.

But in Week 2, with a favorable situation for a double-digit underdog and good coaching, not only can Kansas City be competitive, they can win.

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