4 Important Reds Storylines to Monitor This Offseason

As bad as this Reds season has become, there are pivotal angles going into the 2014 offseason that will have an enormous impact on the 2015 campaign. The health of a few key guys, the possibility of trading names that properly account for the core of this very team and a few other roster possibilities are all worth monitoring over the winter.

No one seems to be behind the idea of standing pat, despite the fact that this may be one of the worst injury-plagued seasons to date. And the fact that 2015 will arguably be the last year that this current Reds blueprint has to succeed puts even more pressure on the following storylines.

While the 2014 Reds may not be worth following now, the following angles are worthy of any Reds fan's attention. 

All stats and salary information courtesy of Baseball-Reference.com unless noted otherwise. 

No. 1: The Health of Joey Votto

Gene J. Puskar/Associated Press

In case you have forgotten this face, here's a quick reminder of who you're looking at: the National League's 2010 MVP, a four-time All Star and Gold Glove-winning first baseman.

The narrative surrounding Joey Votto has slowly morphed from undeniably the best Red in uniform to the most overpaid Red in uniform. While it's not uncommon to hear that "he hasn't been the same since 2012," know that it's not entirely accurate.

Joey Votto was still the most important Red swinging a bat in 2013. For those who don't see it that way because of power statistics like home runs and RBI, there is a stat designed to measure the real, tangible impact a player has toward his team's run creation.

In 2013, Joey Votto was the NL's No. 1 run creator. I invite anyone who currently thinks more about Votto's contract than his recovery to visit the link and decide for yourself the validity of this stat. Consider the company surrounding Votto on the list.

Then consider the fact that the Reds are the third-worst team in the sport in OBP, according to ESPN.com. Votto's OBP after 62 games, most of which were presumably played on one healthy leg, is .390, which would still be the highest on the team from any other Cincinnati bat.

Votto's importance to the success of the team has been largely dismissed, which is a fallacy. While it's frustrating that someone commanding so much of the team's payroll isn't on the field, it by no means negates the tangible impact Votto has on this lineup.

The Reds' offense has scored 100 runs in just three months this season. Votto was playing the majority in two of the three. While everyone obsesses over which bat the Reds might add this offseason, there is no bat that could realistically join the team that would be better than his.

No. 2 Homer Bailey's Recovery

Al Behrman/Associated Press

Akin to teammate Joey Votto, Homer Bailey's health will be extremely vital to the success of the 2015 Reds. Apparently, Bailey will make a full recovery before the start of spring training. Per Cincinnati Enquirer Reds beat writer John Fay:

"

According to what I was told, everything went very well," Lessard said.

Bailey's injury is the same as Jonathan Broxton's from last year, but the tear was smaller. Dr. Tim Kremchek performed both surgeries.

"According to doc, (Bailey will) be able to start throwing by the end of December," Lessard said. "That's fairly normal for a pitcher."

The hope is Bailey will be ready for the start of spring training. Broxton had his surgery on Aug. 27. He came off the DL April 8. But, again, his tear was more severe.

 

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Homer Bailey's recovery is vital for a number of reasons. Most importantly, Bailey ended this season with a 9-4 record and a 3.71 ERA. Next year, the right-hander will command $10 million, but in 2016, he'll jump to $18 million, per ESPN.com. This makes for another bulky contract surrounded in a cloud of injury.

Furthermore, it's possible the Reds will deal one of their four starting pitchers who won't be under contract after 2015. Should either Johnny Cueto or Mat Latos be moved, Homer Bailey might even become the Reds' ace or No. 2 in the rotation, making his contribution to the team exponentially more significant. 

No. 3 Which SP Is Dealt

Patrick Semansky/Associated Press

Fox Sports' Ken Rosenthal tweeted the following back in August:

"

#Reds expected to trade at least one starting pitcher this off-season, when they can negotiate with all teams, not just a claiming club.

— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) August 27, 2014"

And it makes sense. After 2015, Johnny Cueto, Alfredo Simon, Mat Latos and Mike Leake will all be free agents. While the Reds will look to sign one, possibly two, it's simply unfathomable to see the Reds signing all four. And in order to get maximum value, they'll need to deal one or several while teams can still control them for an entire season.

ESPN.com's Jason Stark tweeted the following at the end of July:

"

Not only are #Reds not buying. Other teams say they've dangled Mat Latos. Looking for big return of course

— Jayson Stark (@jaysonst) July 31, 2014"

Mat Latos appears to be the favorite to be traded, but will that be the case? Considering the year Cueto is having, it's likely his price tag will be greater than Latos'. And when you consider Latos' age and limited injury history compared to an older Cueto's, it's hard to say he's the one to go with any degree of certainty.

But considering the lack of evidence on Simon, it's hard to gauge the return he would command. And personally, I believe Mike Leake will be the easiest to re-sign, but that's purely based on an opinion when considering Leake next to Latos and Cueto.

Regardless, it's highly unlikely the Reds will begin next year with the same rotation they started 2014 with even though they have control of every starter. 

No. 4 Hunt for Reds Left Fielder

Carlos Osorio/Associated Press

The Reds are almost assuredly going to be paying $4.5 million to say goodbye to Ryan Ludwick, so with his departure, the Reds will once again be searching for a left field bat.

Should the Reds trade a starting pitcher, it doesn't need to be for a left fielder. The Reds can leverage one or two starting pitchers to not only shed payroll but also to re-beef the farm system. They can use free agency to address the left field vacancy.

If you're wondering who will be on the market, Baseballprospectus.com lists all of the potential free agents at every position.

One name that jumps out, to me, from the list of outfielders is Nori Aoki. Currently slashing .267/.336/.337 for the Kansas City Royals, Aoki would provide precisely what the Reds offense lacks. Because as stated before, the Reds are so poor in OBP, they need to compile a lineup of guys prone to just getting on base.

Aoki fits the bill, especially with a career .350 OBP. And he hardly strikes out. Aoki boasts 39 walks compared to just 45 strikeouts. He's finishing a three-year deal worth just short of $5 million, so he should be affordable, even if his price tag goes up.

Would a lineup of Billy Hamilton, Aoki, Votto, Devin Mesoraco, Todd Frazier and Jay Bruce do anything to your offensive expectations?