Should Golden State Warriors Worry About Splash Brothers' Busy Summer?
California is suffering through its worst drought since 1977, which is why the Golden State Warriors really can't afford for the FIBA World Cup to dehydrate the Splash Brothers.
If that sounds like a long stretch for a not-so-clever intro, that's because it is.
But if that sounds like an overstatement of the dangers facing Klay Thompson and Stephen Curry as they pursue gold with Team USA in Spain, rest assured it's not.
Risky International Business
International play cuts into the valuable and increasingly scarce recovery time players need after the grind of the NBA season—a grind we simply can't underestimate.
ESPN.com's Tom Haberstroh (subscription required) has been writing a lot lately about the physical toll of the NBA schedule and discussed it most recently in terms of sleep deprivation:
"A season of 82 games will yield 578 brutal back-to-backs in 2014-15 where teams are forced to travel overnight, severely inhibiting sleep habits. To recap, studies have shown that a sleepless night or roughly a week's worth of little sleep has the impairment effect of becoming legally drunk. Another study shows that getting four or fewer hours of sleep a night in a week's span—something that can occur when a team is forced to play four games in five nights—can deplete a man's testosterone levels as if he's aged 11 years.
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Flying halfway around the world and playing five games in a six-day stretch isn't ideal for sleep patterns or physical recovery in general—especially when it comes after a long season. Remember, it's not just the World Cup games that are taxing Thompson and Curry; they've been practicing since July.
The risk of injury is obviously real, as Paul George's broken leg demonstrated. Though less catastrophic, old-fashioned fatigue is no joke either. Kevin Durant addressed that issue proactively, pulling out of the World Cup before the U.S. hopped a plane to Spain.
Physical breakdowns that show up after the fact are another problem. And though it's difficult to make a definite causal connection between international play and subsequent injury, we've seen some examples that are hard to ignore.
When Dirk Nowitzki underwent the knee surgery that kept him out of the opening weeks of the 2012-13 season, his international mileage was suspected as a factor, according to The Associated Press (via USA Today): "Nowitzki said doctors didn't find anything 'that was crazy or anything unexpected' during the surgery. He figures 14 NBA seasons, and playing on the German national team during the summers, just took its toll on his knee."
Manu Ginobili missed the first dozen games of the 2008-09 season (and another 19 straight between February and March) following an ankle injury that his participation in the 2008 Beijing Olympics prevented from healing.
Ginobili told reporters at the time: "My plan was to be part of the Olympic Games, and I knew that if I suffered from pain they would have to operate. This isn't something that took me by surprise."
Maybe Nowitzki, Ginobili and other players who broke down after international play would have suffered the same fate without busy summers. But we can say this for sure: Every player has a finite number of miles in him, and though we don't know what that number is, using up some of those miles over the summer cuts into the overall supply.
Weary Warriors?
If we look at Curry specifically, we should acknowledge that the frailty narrative that once defined his career is a thing of the past. He's played 78 games in each of his past two seasons.
Collapsible ankles were Curry's major physical issue and the reason the Warriors were able to sign him to such a team-friendly four-year, $44 million deal in 2012.
The uncertainty surrounding his future health, at the time, was very real.
Even if Curry has proved his durability, few players spent the past two years under more defensive pressure than he did. Opponents paid him uncommonly physical attention—pushing, trapping, tripping and generally trying to wear him down. Treatment like that adds up, and the Warriors should be concerned that the lack of an offseason break could set Curry back when the year tips off in late October.
The worries pertaining to Thompson are different.
He's big for a guard, dishes out more physical punishment than he absorbs and plays a style that subjects him to very little wear and tear. Floating on the perimeter and rarely attacking the basket is a good way to stay healthy on offense.
Thompson has missed just one game in his three-year career.
But that cuts both ways. Durability is good. Three-plus seasons without a break isn't.
Like Curry, Thompson has endured two straight seasons extended by tough playoff series. And unlike Curry, Thompson's dogged work on defense in the World Cup subjects him to quite a bit of contact.
Klay is a critical piece of the Warriors' future, something the organization made abundantly clear by refusing to include him in any trade for Kevin Love. Knowing that, even the small risk of losing him to fatigue, overuse or injury cannot be ignored.
At the same time, the benefits of playing for Team USA are significant.
Potential Payoff
Curry is honing his skills among elite competition, leading the U.S. in assist-to-turnover ratio while hitting 46 percent of his triples. Kyrie Irving has been a better scorer, but you could make the case that Curry has established himself as the best overall point guard on the roster.
The confidence he's building in Spain should be a major positive for the Warriors this year.
The same is true of Thompson, who joined Team USA as a specialist but has seen his role grow substantially. Through the Americans' first eight World Cup games, nobody has played more minutes than Thompson, who is tied for the team lead in shots and converted at a 51 percent clip overall.
For a guy looking to make the difficult step between "very good player" and "star," playing with Team USA is an invaluable experience.
In a diary entry penned with Rusty Simmons of the San Francisco Chronicle, Thompson wrote: "I’m super-excited to be playing in this tournament. I’m not playing 45 minutes. I’m playing 20 really-hard minutes. It’s cool playing for the other guys and for your country. It’s going to help me so much going into the season, because I’m playing with guys who are better than me."
Thompson may say he's playing with guys who are better than he is, but he's conducting himself like a player who genuinely believes he belongs in their company. That's huge.
We can look to players of the past who parlayed international competition into career breakouts as well. Derrick Rose won his MVP award the season after he starred for Team USA in the 2010 World Championships, and Durant took a leap after that same tourney.
Carmelo Anthony reached the Western Conference Finals for the first time in the 2008-09 season after shining in Beijing. Kobe Bryant won his fourth ring (and somehow played all 82 games) that same year after serving as the veteran heart of Team USA's gold-medal squad in China.
Consider, too, that guys like Curry and Thompson probably wouldn't be sitting on the couch with their feet up if they weren't in Spain right now. NBA players work out and play plenty of hoops over the summer, and logging 20 minutes per game against good competition is a good use of that offseason time.
Risk Rewarded
Ultimately, Curry and Thompson are putting themselves at risk by playing for Team USA. Golden State is depending on its backcourt for production, a playoff berth in the upcoming season and perhaps most importantly its identity.
The Dubs were actually a defense-first outfit last year, but to the casual basketball fan, they were best known for their sweet-shooting backcourt. With new head coach Steve Kerr implementing an offensive system that should free up the Splash Brothers for more shots and even bigger roles, we could see them become even more important to the team's success.
The Warriors should be worried. It's only natural.
But they should also be excited because they might be watching their two key players take the steps needed to lead the Warriors to the next level.
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