Denver Broncos: Has Julius Thomas Become the NFL's Best Tight End?

The Denver Broncos were able to take care of business on Sunday night. They defeated the Indianapolis Colts in Week 1 of the regular season 31-24 at Sports Authority Field at Mile High.

The league’s most dangerous passing game is found in Denver, and future Hall of Fame quarterback Peyton Manning leads the way for his team. One of Manning’s favorite targets is fourth-year tight end Julius Thomas.

In the game against the Colts, Thomas hauled in seven catches for 104 yards and three touchdowns. It was the third 100-yard game of his career, and the first time Thomas had three touchdowns in a single game.

Thomas was simply dominant against the Colts, and his performance begs the question: Has Thomas become the best tight end in the league? Let’s take a look to find out.

The Competition

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

There are really three elite tight ends in football today. The debate about the best tight end in the game today should include Thomas, Jimmy Graham (New Orleans Saints) and Rob Gronkowski (New England Patriots).

Thomas came into the league as a fourth-round pick in the 2011 NFL draft out of Portland State. He was primarily a basketball star in college, but Thomas did have one year of college football experience under his belt. In the 2010 season, Thomas caught 29 passes for 453 yards and two touchdowns. In his lone college football season, Thomas was named First-Team All-Big Sky Conference.

He got a chance to shine in front of NFL scouts at the 2011 East-West Shrine Game in Orlando, FL. Thomas was a standout player during the week of practice. Observing him, I felt that Thomas played a lot like former Packers tight end Jermichael Finley. Thomas scored the only points for the West team that year, catching a 5-yard touchdown pass from Idaho quarterback Nathan Enderle. Thomas followed that up by also catching the 2-point conversion.

At the 2011 Scouting Combine, Thomas was one of the top performers at his position with a 35.5 inch vertical jump. Thomas measured in at 6’5” 246 pounds, and he ran a 4.68 second 40-yard dash. At the Combine, not many talked to Thomas during the interview process. He was an unknown basketball player from a small school, but Thomas had big goals of making it in the NFL.

“Going out against some of the people in the Shrine Game was huge against them, and it helped me set a bar for myself and allow me some ideas of what I can do and most of all was encouraging to know that I can play.” Thomas told me that day.

The Broncos took a chance on Thomas in the fourth round, and they would have to wait almost two years for their gamble to pay off. An ankle injury suffered in his rookie season—that later required surgery—knocked Thomas out for most of the 2011 and 2012 seasons. During that time, he barely appeared in only nine games and had one catch for five yards for his career.

Thomas splashed onto the NFL scene last year, and he looks to continue working hard in order to prove his worth in the league.

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

Like Thomas, Graham was primarily a basketball star in college. Graham played only one season of college football for the Miami Hurricanes, and he caught a mere 17 passes for 213 yards and five touchdowns. He came into the league as a third-round pick by the Saints in the 2010 NFL draft.

Graham was able to standout—like Thomas—during a college All-Star game before the draft. During the week of practice for the 2010 Senior Bowl in Mobile he wowed those in attendance (including me) with his elite athleticism. Graham showed the natural ability to run routes, and he used his basketball skill set to effectively “box out” defenders in single coverage.

At the 2010 Scouting Combine, Graham showed how much of an elite athlete he was. Graham recorded a 38.5 inch vertical, and he also ran the 40-yard dash in only 4.56 seconds.

The Saints brought him on board in the draft that year, and Graham started five games for them as a rookie. During the 2010 season, Graham caught 31 passes for 356 yards and five touchdowns. In 2011, Graham had arguably the best season of his pro career—and he hasn’t slowed down since then.

Charles Krupa/Associated Press

Unlike Thomas and Graham, Gronkowski was not a basketball star in college. During his time with the Arizona Wildcats, Gronkowski compiled 75 catches for 1,197 yards and 16 touchdowns over two seasons.

He was the highest picked in the draft of this trio, as the Patriots took him off the board in the second round of the 2010 NFL draft. The Pats were comfortable taking a chance on Gronkowski even though he missed all of the 2009 season (and three games in 2008) due to a back injury that required surgery.

As a rookie, Gronkowski started 11 games for the Patriots and immediately proved his value as a red-zone target. Gronkowski finished the 2010 season with 42 catches for 546 yards and a whopping 10 touchdowns.

The next year, his first—and only—season playing a full 16 games, Gronkowski dominated the league.

The Comparisons

Now that we’ve decided who the competitors are, let’s take a look at some statistical comparisons. While Thomas and Gronkowski have missed many games due to various injuries, Graham has only missed two games in four NFL seasons.

Looking at career stats, it’s easy to see Graham has been way more productive.

Year	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
2010	31	356	5
2011	99	1310	11
2012	85	982	9
2013	86	1215	16

Year	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
2010	42	546	10
2011	90	1327	17
2012	55	790	11
2013	39	592	4

Year	Receptions	Yards	Touchdowns
2011	1	5	0
2012	0	0	0
2013	65	788	12

If Thomas wants to enter the same category as Graham, he will need to catch about 20 more passes per season. Thomas is already a fine red-zone threat, but eclipsing 15 touchdowns in a season would put him at a mark that both Graham and Gronkowski have already reached. 

The Forecast

Joe Mahoney/Associated Press

Past performance is not always an indicator of future success. In this section, we’ll examine what could be in the future for all three tight ends competing for that top spot.

Thomas is catching passes from Peyton Manning. The veteran quarterback has three years remaining on his contract with the Broncos, and there’s no sign of him slowing down. The way that Manning has played over the last two seasons in Denver, he could easily fulfill his contract obligations with the Broncos.

That’s great news for Thomas. What gives this situation some uncertainty is Thomas’ contract situation. He is in the final year of his rookie deal, and Thomas is set to hit free agency after the season.

With Minnesota Vikings tight end Kyle Rudolph signing a five-year, $36.5 million contract (with $6.5 million signing bonus and $18.5 million guaranteed) earlier this year, one would have to estimate that Thomas could—and should—strike a similar deal with the Broncos.

Assuming that Thomas stays in Denver—and that Manning plays three more seasons—we could see the young tight end prove his dominance on a weekly basis for years to come. If Manning retires before his contract is up, or if Thomas does not stay in Denver, then his statistics would suffer.

AJ Mast/Associated Press

Graham is catching passes from another future Hall of Fame quarterback in Drew Brees. The Saints have Brees signed through the 2016 season. Currently at age 35, Brees could realistically play at a high level for another five years. That means in order to stick around with the Saints, the team would have to extend Brees for a couple more seasons.

Like Thomas, Graham’s numbers are tied to that system and that quarterback. Unlike Thomas, Graham has already been rewarded with a big-money deal—the richest contract for a tight end in NFL history. Earlier this year, Graham signed a four-year, $40 million contract (with a $12 million signing bonus and $20.9 million guaranteed) to stay in New Orleans.

Graham was initially slapped with the franchise tag that would have paid him a one-year salary of $7.3 million. The veteran tight end tried to argue with the league that he should be categorized as a franchise wide receiver because of how often he lines up split out wide. Graham lost his case in arbitration, but found a deal both sides could agree on before the deadline to sign franchise-tagged players was up.

These three tight ends are all catching passes from outstanding quarterbacks who will go down in NFL history as some of the best to ever play the position.

Michael Dwyer/Associated Press

Gronkowski has been a favorite target of Tom Brady for years. The Patriots have Brady signed through the 2017 season. At 37 years old, Brady has said that he wants to play until he’s 40. This gives the duo plenty of time to continue their dominance in the NFL.

The Patriots signed Gronkowski to a six-year, $54 million contract and have his services secured through the 2019 season. Gronkowski earns an annual average salary of $9 million, and $13.1 million of his deal is guaranteed to go along with his $8 million signing bonus.

Clearly, all three tight ends have a bright future in the NFL provided their quarterbacks stay in the game. It’s difficult to determine who will have the larger role as all three are important pieces to the passing game.

Summary

Thomas was a breakout player in 2013, and he could be even better this season. He worked out this offseason with future Hall of Fame tight end Tony Gonzalez in an effort to be more productive as a pro.

The loss of Eric Decker and Knowshon Moreno means there will be receptions that could go to other players in the passing game. Thomas could be a primary recipient of those targets—especially those red-zone targets that Decker received last season.

"

what we saw from Julius Thomas last yr was just tip of the iceberg, he's not Jimmy Graham but he's getting better & getting closer #Broncos

— Cecil Lammey (@cecillammey) September 8, 2014"

So Thomas is not quite the weapon—or athletic freak—that Graham is. However, Thomas has yet to show us his best on the football field. There’s a good chance that Thomas could post stats that rival Graham this year with a larger role in the Broncos offense. Gronkowski is a dangerous weapon as well, but his injury problems keep him from contending with Thomas and Graham for the top spot.

Rating the best tight ends in the game has to shake out like this: Graham, Thomas, Gronkowski.

The Broncos took a chance on Thomas years ago by moving up in the 2011 NFL draft (the Green Bay Packers moved down so they could select tight end D.J. Williams in the draft—ouch). With Manning leading the way, Thomas has worked hard to be one of the best tight ends in the game today—and he is.

All quotes and injury/practice observations obtained firsthand. Record/statistical information provided via email from the Denver Broncos unless otherwise noted. Contract and salary-cap information provided by Spotrac.com. Transaction history provided by ProSportsTransactions.com. Scouting Combine results via NFL.com.