College Football Week 3 Predictions: Picking Top-25 Games Against the Spread
There will be more glamorous weeks in the not-too-distant future. That’s an ominous way to preview Chapter 3 of the college football season, although it requires no real confirmation if you glanced at the slate of games. Chances are, you’ve done your homework.
That’s not to say there aren’t impactful matchups. Take Georgia and South Carolina, for starters. The winner of this game will immediately vault to another level in the SEC; one could quickly become a national-championship contender, the other could continue its climb back upward.
And even if that game doesn’t tickle your fancy, there are point spreads in place to level the playing field in each and every Week 3 matchup. When you factor in these handicaps—some of which are substantial—all games become competitive. That’s one way to sell it.
Using the most recent AP Top 25 Poll, all games featuring Top 25 teams have been picked. In our new format, the 10 most intriguing matchups of the week will have their own breakdown. The remaining games will be broken down, briefly, on the final slide.
Thanks to a rain-shortened Alabama-FAU game, we were above .500 in Week 2. The plan is to elevate the results as we go. So, let’s go.
All spreads are courtesy of Oddshark.com unless noted otherwise.
No. 25 BYU vs. Houston
1 of 11
The Line: BYU (-18.5)
After annihilating Texas for the second consecutive year, BYU cracked the AP Top 25 for the first time in 2014. The Cougars—of the BYU variety—have covered in both games, outscoring their opponents 76-17.
On the other side of the covering spectrum, Houston is still looking for its first positive spread outcome. After falling to lovable UTSA, the Cougars—of the Houston variety—bounced back with a win over Grambling State. We use the term “bounced back” loosely, of course.
The spread opened around two touchdowns and has since soared. Given how BYU is playing on both sides, it’s easy to see why. Playing at home for the first time all year, look for Bronco Mendenhall’s squad to win big.
The Pick: BYU (-18.5)
No. 22 Ohio State vs. Kent State
2 of 11
The Line: Ohio State (-32)
Given recent events—and more specifically, a loss at home against Virginia Tech—Ohio State’s season looks mighty different than it did seven days ago. As a double-digit favorite, the Buckeyes lost outright to an unranked, out-of-conference team at home for the first time since 1982.
Enter Kent State, 0-2 on the season and 0-2 against the spread. The Golden Flashes just lost to South Alabama, which isn’t as bad as it sounds. The Jaguars are only a two-touchdown underdog to Mississippi State this week. (No, really. They’re not bad.)
How will OSU respond? Will the Buckeyes be angry? Will the team come out flat? Ohio State should cruise without issue, but it just seems like too many points as OSU sorts out its issues.
The Pick: Kent State (+32)
No. 21 Louisville at Virginia
3 of 11
The Line: Virginia (+7)
Louisville hits the road for the first time in 2014, hoping its trip to Virginia is kinder than it was for UCLA. The Bruins won that game in Week 1, although they needed three defensive touchdowns as a 19-point favorite to sneak by.
Both teams are 2-0 against the spread, covering in all four situations with relative ease. Last week, however, Virginia snapped a 10-game losing streak with its blowout victory over Richmond.
On paper, this one looks lopsided. And yet, the point spread paints a much different picture overall. Given the way the Cavaliers have pushed quality teams at home—see BYU last season and UCLA in Week 1—it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if they kept this close with solid defense.
The Pick: Virginia (+7)
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
No. 20 Missouri vs. UCF
4 of 11
The Line: Missouri (-9)
Full disclosure: I picked against Missouri last week. Not just against the spread but also to lose outright on the road at Toledo. Well, needless to say, I’d love to have that one back. In fact, let’s just pretend that whole thing never happened.
Central Florida enjoyed a bye week following its journey to Ireland. The Knights fell to Penn State on a last-second field goal, although they seemed to figure things out offensively as the game progressed. This production came in large part because of Justin Holman, and the quarterback will get the start after coming in—and playing well—off the bench.
But Maty Mauk looks the part. And more importantly, that Missouri front seven—led by Markus Golden—looks better than advertised. I learned my lesson.
The Pick: Missouri (-9)
No. 17 Virginia Tech vs. East Carolina
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The Line: Virginia Tech (-11)
If any team is going to come into Week 3 with a massive success hangover, Virginia Tech would be the selection. Given the nature of the upset, I wouldn't blame the Hokies one bit if they did.
Frank Beamer's team delivered the biggest victory the program has seen in some time against Ohio State, and now they’ll face a familiar out-of-conference foe. Although East Carolina couldn’t deliver similar results against South Carolina, the Pirates covered the 14.5-point spread on the road. ECU has now covered in six of its past seven games and also four of its last six against the Gamecocks.
Virginia Tech will look to make life difficult for senior quarterback Shane Carden and will likely succeed in doing so. But ECU can play, and it will be close deep into the second half. The Hokies get the win, but it won’t be easy.
The Pick: East Carolina (+11)
No. 12 UCLA at Texas
6 of 11
The Line: UCLA (-7.5)
The struggle between these two teams operating under vastly different expectations is real. It’s worth emphasizing, however, that UCLA remains unbeaten despite lackluster showings against Virginia and Memphis to start the year. As a result, the Bruins are still in search of their first cover.
Texas, operating without its starting quarterback, starters on the offensive line and potentially one of its top wideouts, is limping into this one following a 41-7 drubbing to BYU.
Although UCLA is still a team we’re trying to figure out—and this diagnosis will stretch well beyond Saturday’s game—Texas is a difficult team to back given the various questions. Injuries and roster attrition have clearly taken their toll, and thus, it’s hard to feel good about picking the underdog, even with more than a touchdown to work with.
The Pick: UCLA (-7.5)
No. 11 Notre Dame vs. Purdue
7 of 11
The Line: Notre Dame (-28.5)
Why is this game deserving of its own slide? Well, for starters, have you seen the rest of this slate? Also, if we’re being honest, this quasi-rivalry remains a guilty pleasure.
Yes, it’s much more one-sided now (hence the four-touchdown handicap). Purdue is coming into this game fresh off a 38-17 loss to Central Michigan, a game in which the Boilermakers were favored by three points.
Notre Dame delivered much different results in Week 2, shutting out Michigan, something that doesn't happen all that often. Quarterback Everett Golson has been fabulous, and Brian Kelly’s defense looks like one of the more athletic groups in the nation.
In the past 10 games between these two, each team has covered five times. Although Purdue has struggled mightily, 28.5 points is a lot to lay. The Irish win easy, but not that easy. (I’m alluding to the spread. Otherwise this game would be incredibly unwatchable.)
The Pick: Purdue (+28.5)
No. 9 USC at Boston College
8 of 11
The Line: USC (-17)
Since opening up at nearly three touchdowns, this point spread has been bet down some. USC, which just finished up a physical win at Stanford, will now pack up and head to Massachusetts. Perhaps the line movement is a product of the masses assuming that a letdown is imminent.
Boston College is looking for its first cover of the season, and the Eagles will look to bounce back from a 30-20 loss against Pitt. The cross-country travel from the opponent will obviously work in BC’s advantage here, although will it actually matter?
The contrarian opinion would be to take Boston College, assume USC is without much energy after a grueling game and see what happens. But given the canyon-sized difference in talent, I’m not taking the bait.
The Pick: USC (-17)
No. 6 Georgia at No. 24 South Carolina
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The Line: Georgia (-6)
For many seeing this point spread for the first time, allow me to summarize your reaction:
That’s it?
Yes, the most intriguing game of Week 3 has been given a point spread that seems, well, far less than what most might have anticipated. After blowing out Clemson in Week 1, Georgia enjoyed a lovely sandwich bye week between two quality opponents.
South Carolina has enjoyed a far less relaxing start. After getting blown out by Texas A&M, the Gamecocks bounced back against East Carolina last Saturday. Still, Steve Spurrier’s bunch was unable to cover the 14.5-point spread.
The assumption for this game—and it might be realized—is that Georgia will come to Columbia and dominate behind running back Todd Gurley and a defense that was everywhere in the opener. But this stadium has not been kind to the Bulldogs in recent years. In fact, Georgia has not cracked the 20-point barrier in the Gamecocks’ digs since 1994. Add in that South Carolina is 4-1 against the spread while playing Georgia in the last five games, and it becomes more intriguing.
Georgia wins, but this one is close. Really close. This game could get weird and fun.
The Pick: South Carolina (+6)
No. 4 Oklahoma vs. Tennessee
10 of 11
The Line: Oklahoma (-20.5)
The expectations for Oklahoma and Tennessee are drastically different, at least right now, although both teams have looked excellent in the early part of the season. The Sooners have been dominant behind quarterback Trevor Knight, and the defense has been as good as advertised.
Tennessee took down both Utah State and Arkansas State, although the Vols were unable to cover the 16-point spread against the Red Wolves in Week 2. Now, one of the nation’s youngest teams will head on the road for the very first time. It will be greeted with one of the nation’s most difficult road environments.
In a few years, when Tennessee’s wealth of young talent has developed, spreads like this won’t be in the cards. And while it seems like a lot of points for a team that is obviously improved, the Sooners are on a different level entirely.
The Pick: Oklahoma (-20.5)
Other Top 25 Games
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No. 16 Arizona State (-15.5) at Colorado
On the surface, this looks a bit like the Iowa State-Kansas State game from Week 2: a fascinating number that felt like it should be higher. Arizona State wins, but Colorado makes a surprising game out of this at home.
The Pick: Colorado (+15.5)
No. 15 Stanford (-28.5) vs. Army
What does Stanford have left after a hard-hitting difficult loss, and more importantly, does it matter against Army? The Black Knights hung tough with Stanford last season, and they will again thanks to some favorable timing.
The Pick: Army (+28.5)
No. 14 Ole Miss (-27) vs. La.-Lafayette
Ole Miss is 2-0 against the spread and looks like it has one of the nation’s up-and-coming defenses. Well, everyone looks that way against Vanderbilt, but they keep the cover streak going.
The Pick: Ole Miss (-27)
No. 8 Baylor (-35.5) at Buffalo
Quarterback Bryce Petty should be back as Baylor hits the road for the first time. The long Buffalo voyage plays a role in deciding this one, and the Bears only beat the Bulls by 30 instead of 36.
The Pick: Buffalo (+35.5)
No. 10 LSU (-31.5) vs. UL Monroe
LSU is just beginning to stretch its legs offensively, although Louisiana-Monroe is no slouch. It just feels like a few too many points to be handing out, especially as LSU readies for the start of the SEC season next week.
The Pick: UL Monroe (+31.5)
No. 7 Texas A&M (-32) vs. Rice
In two games, Texas A&M has scored 125 points. This might not be a fun Saturday for Rice, not after watching the Owls get shredded by Notre Dame in Week 1.
The Pick: Texas A&M (-32)
No. 3 Alabama (-48) vs. Southern Miss
The biggest point spread on the week features a mismatch of monumental proportions. But with Florida waiting in the on-deck circle, look for Alabama to pull its foot off the gas early.
The Pick: Southern Miss (+48)
No. 2 Oregon (-44) vs. Wyoming
Will the Ducks have a Michigan State hangover? Even so, will it stop them from scoring 60 points here? The covering machine doesn't rest.
The Pick: Oregon (-44)
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
