Ranking the Most Desperate NBA Teams Down the Final Stretch
With most of the NBA season in the books, excuses like "slow starts" and "chemistry issues" can be thrown out the windows. For all contending teams, there is one objective in the short term: to qualify for the postseason.
More than a few squads have dug themselves in deep enough holes where playoff success—once considered an afterthought—is more far-fetched than they could've imagined during preseason.
For a select few, it'll have a direct impact on the franchise's direction moving forward.
As the 2013-14 regular season's conclusion nears, we rank the teams most desperate for a late-season surge in the standings.
8. Golden State Warriors
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Prior to the season, Golden State Warriors head honcho Joe Lacob showed the NBA world he was all-in by giving the green light on big-market spending.
The offseason that began with an ill-fated pursuit of Dwight Howard ended with a combined $96 million between Andre Iguodala, Jermaine O'Neal, Marreese Speights and an Andrew Bogut extension. Added to a core that resided at the top of the West last season in terms of excitement, these Dubs were purported to be one of the conference's top powers.
They've been competitive for much of the year, but a slow start has the Warriors closer to the bottom of the West's playoff picture than the top.
That 14-13 beginning, a partial result of Iguodala missing time early on, cramped any hope of Golden State taking home a top-four seed in a strong Western Conference. It's gone 21-10 since, but a 35-23 record is only good for sixth, and 1.5 games away from the final spot.
The team owns just one pick over the next two drafts, and it is essentially locked into this roster for the next three seasons.
Youth definitely plays to Golden State's favor, and time should only help the current core develop. But with no legitimate roster help on the horizon, barring a major trade, the Warriors qualify as a fringe team when discussing those most desperate for a late run.
7. Washington Wizards
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For a while, it seemed like this could finally be the Washington Wizards' season. With a young, explosive John Wall-Bradley Beal backcourt, and a frontcourt headlined by two bona fide bigs in Marcin Gortat and Nene, the Wiz seemed destined to compete—especially given the weak state of the East.
But, after news that Nene will be missing the next month-plus, according to Yahoo! Sports' Adrian Wojnarowski, the 30-28 Wizards' chances at advancing far at all may be on life support.
Per Basketball-Reference, the Wizards are more than seven points per 100 possessions better with Nene on the floor this season. The team has gone 8-12 in games with Nene missing from the starting lineup.
Including Nene, who's under contract for $13 million a season through 2015-16, this seems to be the majority of Washington's core for the foreseeable future. Wall, Beal, Nene, Martell Webster and Otto Porter make a good chunk of the Wiz payroll through that season, though the team will have cap space this summer to add another piece or two.
But this season was the first true opportunity to plant the seed, or so it seemed. Wall is approaching the prime of his young career, and he is surrounded by three 40 percent three-point shooters and two reliable two-way bigs.
But even in a depleted East, Washington has merely been able stay afloat at .500. It's been sufficient to this point, and .500 will almost certainly earn it a playoff spot. But in a field as weak as this one, a team with as much young talent as Washington should strive to make more noise—especially when it's trying to lure a top free agent to join up in D.C. next summer.
The Wizards are safely in the middle of the Eastern playoff pack. But pulling ahead could potentially benefit their young core more than any other team.
6. Denver Nuggets
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Few teams have shifted outlooks as drastically and as swiftly as the Denver Nuggets have over the last season.
Just a year ago, under guidance of Executive of the Year and Coach of the Year winners, Denver was an efficiently scoring, young playoff contender in the West. After a summer of transition, the Nugs are more a collection of individual parts than a cohesive team.
They've spent themselves into a corner over the last few offseasons as well, as six of their seven highest-paid players are all under contract through at least 2015-16.
Under George Karl, the team had finished top-five in offense during each of the last four seasons, finishing outside the top 10 just once since 2006-07.
Under Brian Shaw, the offense has undergone a dramatic face-lift, and it's clear that the personnel—largely molded for Karl's schemes—isn't a right fit. According to Synergy, transition frequency is down from last season, and they've dropped from sixth best while running to 19th.
Particularly in the case of Kenneth Faried, who has morphed into one of the best-fitting pieces in the NBA to among the worst. Last season, Synergy ranked him as the 54th-most efficient scorer in the league at 1.01 points per play. Just five percent of those plays were post-ups, and in transition, which made up 16 percent of his offense, Manimal shot 87 of 123 and scored 1.31 PPP.
This season, with post-ups nearly equaling his number of transition plays at 15 percent, Faried's 0.98 PPP rank 92nd among all players.
They're on track to finish below .500 for the first time since 2002-03, the season before they drafted Carmelo Anthony third overall.
Denver is among the league's younger clubs, but the "no true star" reputation that has plagued the team since Carmelo Anthony's departure is perhaps more prevalent now than ever. Reinforcements are in store for next year as Danilo Gallinari and JaVale McGee are set to return from injury, as well as the addition of the Knicks' first-rounder, which may fall in the lottery.
But without a true hint of sustainable success this year, Denver's future may not be as bright as its past.
5. Brooklyn Nets
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The Brooklyn Nets' season has taken an undoubted turn for the better over the last two months, but that doesn't diminish how desperate they are for a true playoff run.
Brooklyn is the NBA's second-oldest team, and it is locked into the entire current roster, with the exception of Paul Pierce, Shaun Livingston and Jason Collins, through the end of next season. Its first-round pick is either traded or swapped until 2019.
After investing everything into this season and next, the Nets have no choice but to contend.
The Brooklyn front office did well to put together what should have been one of the East's tougher rosters last summer, after it appeared to be locked into a roster destined for mediocrity. Pierce and Kevin Garnett have adjusted well to new roles as of late, and despite Brook Lopez's season-ending foot injury, the team has awoken from the bowels of the East to enter the playoff picture.
But when you're talking about the most expensive team the NBA has ever seen—in terms of salary and luxury tax—merely making the playoffs isn't enough. It's clear that the Nets won't be able to compete for a title, but the goal from the very start was to reach a stage against Miami or Indiana.
That can still be accomplished.
And if it's not, then Brooklyn will have to live with the current roster for another season, and then have to work around Brook Lopez's max salary until 2015-16, which may then evoke memories of Amar'e Stoudemire's current deal, depending on how Lopez's rehabilitation goes.
Deron Williams, who has played in less than 40 games and is averaging his lowest assist numbers and posting his lowest PER since his first two seasons, finally comes off the books in the summer of 2017.
In short, it doesn't appear that anything desirable is in Brooklyn's future. Winning now would simply be a nice consolation prize in preparation for those future hardships. And without a decent run this season, the Nets may just get their inevitable decline started a season early.
4. Detroit Pistons
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The Detroit Pistons' interesting makeover last summer hasn't exactly panned out the way they'd hoped. At 23-35, they sit outside the Eastern Conference playoff scenario, and are in the league's bottom half in offense and defense.
After adding Brandon Jennings and Josh Smith—the latter logging major minutes at small forward for the first time since 2006-07—the Pistons have barely managed to escape 2012-13's level of mediocrity. Smith has logged a career-low PER of 15, the team has declined to feed the rock to Andre Drummond—whose usage rating has declined since his rookie season—and Jennings has managed to worsen his already-sorry career field-goal clip.
What makes this season so imperative, though, is what David Aldridge reported earlier in the month. The NBA.com insider reported that Detroit plans to match a max-level offer for Greg Monroe, a restricted free agent this summer.
"If Falk finds a team ready to give Monroe the max or something close to it, expect Detroit to match the offer sheet and worry about the money later. At worst, you'd have a 24-year-old, 6-foot-10 power forward under contract that you'd then be able to shop. The Pistons had to lose a lot to wind up with top-10 picks in three straight Drafts. Those assets mean more to them than they probably do to others.
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Monroe is a fine player, and he will certainly garner serious interest in free agency. But the Pistons' unorthodox "big-ball" scheme, with three starters that have logged minutes at the center position, has largely failed. They're already invested long-term in Smith, the most obtrusive of the three, while Drummond is the most promising and on a rookie-scale contract.
If Monroe truly does return to Detroit long term, it would mean an equally long-term commitment to this season's plan, which has failed about as loudly as possible.
Which puts that much more importance on the end of this season.
Mo Cheeks couldn't figure it out, and it cost him his job just a half season into it. It'll certainly be no easy task, but Detroit is going to need some results out of this core to restore any inkling of future hope.
3. Minnesota Timberwolves
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This marks attempt No. 3 of the Minnesota Timberwolves' alleged Cinderella run into the postseason, and it's shaping up to be the third consecutive failure. At 28-29, Minny is 10th in the West and hardly within reach of the eighth seed 5.5 games in the distance.
Kevin Love's career season, ironically, makes it even worse.
At this point, for the Wolves, every game's intention is about getting their star to re-up with Minnesota in 2015. With prime locations like Los Angeles and New York set to open up the checkbooks that summer, Flip Saunders' front office already has its work cut out for it.
A combined 85-120 over the last three seasons under Rick Adelman, and alongside the Ricky Rubio-Nikola Pekovic core, hasn't helped the cause.
On the verge of missing out on the postseason for the 10th consecutive season, Minnesota isn't giving Love much to buy into. With no significant cap space in the foreseeable future, though, it may be the best it has to offer.
The Wolves have posted a top-10 offense and a top-10 defense this season, but for whatever reason, they haven't been able to weather the storm in the ferocious Western Conference. And if nothing gets figured out through the final 25 games, they may have already lost out on everything they're playing for.
2. Cleveland Cavaliers
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Cleveland Cavaliers fans have seen this movie before. Except in the original, it was Rookie of the Year awards, MVP awards and various playoff appearances. In this second go-around, it's a fellow Rookie of the Year, and three sub-.400 winning percentages.
We're two-and-a-half seasons into Kyrie Irving's career, and already we are hearing rumblings of the 21-year-old taking the LeBron James route as soon as he can. According to Brian Windhorst of ESPN, who'd previously spent time covering the Cavs during James' tenure there:
"The Cleveland Cavaliers will offer Irving a maximum contract extension once they’re allowed to on July 1, and if he hasn’t signed it by October, the team will likely be forced to trade him before the Oct. 31 deadline for third-year players to extend their contracts.
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And while Irving has said all the right things about staying put in public, it’s no secret that Irving’s camp has been making it known for years now the point guard would like to be elsewhere long term. No matter how much he denies it.
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Like the Timberwolves' quest to keep Kevin Love in Minneapolis, Cleveland may have already lost its consolation prize for losing the game's single best player.
This season, which was supposed to end with a playoff run, has gone as miserably as any for the Cavs, and that's including the post-Decision, pre-Kyrie 2010-11 campaign.
They're 24th in offense, 18th in defense and dead last in things-that-have-actually-gone-right efficiency rating. Starting with Anthony Bennett and Andrew Bynum, and most recently culminating with Irving's latest departure rumors, this season has been every bit the disaster Cavs fans tried to force out of possibly entering their minds.
So, desperate? Yeah, the Cavaliers are desperate. And whether Irving stays or leaves, that probably won't change any time soon.
1. New York Knicks
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At last, the New York Knicks. Oh, the Knicks, and their hopeless, 21-win roster. The Knicks, and their two lonely draft picks between now and 2018. The Knicks, and their coach that can't remember how he won 54 games last season, and the owner that's convinced he knows how to do everyone else's job when he can hardly manage his own.
And, of course, the all-world superstar in the midst of a career season, that should escape the Garden's grasp while he has the chance this summer.
Carmelo Anthony has put up MVP-type numbers this season on a team with literally no other capable weapons. Other than 'Melo, only Amar'e Stoudemire and Tyson Chandler have posted league-average PERs this season (min. 250 minutes).
While Anthony's 28 points, 8.6 rebounds, 45 percent shooting and 46 percent three-point clip all go to waste each and every night—not to mention his recent four-game stretch in which he's averaged 41 and seven on 53 percent shooting—the Knicks can't help but fear their star already has one foot out the proverbial door.
At this point, it's hard for Anthony to mask any longer. According to Clifton Brown of the New York Times:
""You score 40, 44, 44, 44, all losses - you kind of ask yourself is it worth it," Anthony said. "I'm not going to stop doing what I'm doing. You can believe that."
The way Anthony felt after Nowitzki made the winning basket mirrored the way he has felt many times this season.
"It's like a needle in a balloon right there, just sucks all the air out you," he said.
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Unlike various other meddling teams with abominable rosters, the Knicks don't have the luxury of restarting next year with a shiny new draft selection. This year's first-rounder is headed to either Denver or Orlando, and their second-rounders are off to Houston, Sacramento and Toronto for the next four years.
The 2016 first-round pick was brilliantly shipped to the Raps in a salary dump—except the dyslexic Knicks misunderstood that they were the ones who should've received picks for taking on Andrea Bargnani's $24 million.
Given everything Anthony's seen in his Knicks tenure, if he truly values winning a championship, there's no reason for him to re-sign with New York this summer. And when the Knicks are left with essentially the same roster next season, sans 'Melo, without any draft help, maybe then they'll realize their own flaws from the top down.
Combine a coach who doesn't have a clue, a roster that was constructed to fail and ownership that prioritizes topics like media control over the basketball product, and you have the NBA's most desperate team.
