This is a followup to an earlier article that I wrote: The Five College Football Teams That Might Surprise You in 2009.
Now, I want to look at which five teams might disappoint and why. Last years ACC preseason favorite and preseason, top 15, team, the Clemson Tigers limped out of the gate losing four of their first seven games.
They recovered to make a bowl game, but mid-way through the season head coach Tommy Bowden was gone. What about the Michigan Wolverines last season? People expected growing pains under new coach Rich Rodriguez, but no one could see the Wolverine's worst season in over 30 years coming.
Let's see which teams in 2009, might not meet expectations.
Last season was another top-five finish for the Trojans. 12-1, and they beat Penn State in the Rose Bowl. The decade's most dominant program just rolls on. The Trojans defense only gave up nine points a game, and that led the nation.
College football fans would have really enjoyed matching up that defense with Oklahoma's, or Florida's offense. By the end of year, the Trojans could make a legitimate argument that they were the nation's best team.
Why they might Disappoint
Disappointment at USC is a relative term. They aren't going to lose five or six games, and coach Pete Carroll isn't going anywhere, but there is cause for concern at Southern Cal. First off, there's the Reggie Bush payment allegations.
This issue has been a little quiet recently, but it has the potential of being a major distraction during the upcoming season. The defense that was so good in 2008 returns only three starters.
I know USC has talent at every position, but that still is question mark. There's also a new quarterback, new offensive and defensive coordinators, and a brutal schedule. There are games at Ohio State, at California, and at Oregon. A season with two or three losses at USC is a disappointment, and it could happen this year.
The once dominant program had fallen on tough times, but last year was a resurgence of sorts. A nine-win season that included a Gator Bowl. The Cornhuskers won five of their last six in 2008, and coach Bo Pellini did have one of the more successful first year coaching jobs in the country.
Why they might Disappoint
I'm totally on board with Pellini as head coach of the Cornhuskers. I think eventually he will return Nebraska to prominence, but they might be a year away. In 2009 Nebraska returns only 11 starters on both offense and defense.
Gone are quarterback Joe Ganz, and top his top wide receivers. Nebraska must play Colorado, Kansas, and Missouri all on the road. These are three teams most expected to contend with Nebraska for the Big 12 North Title.
Then you have games with top 10 teams Virginia Tech and Oklahoma. A defense that gave up nearly 30 points has got to improve, if the Cornhuskers don't want to take a step back and lose five or six games this season.
Outside of USC, the Oregon Ducks are the Pac-10's most consistent winner. Last year was no different, a 10-3 season with a bowl win over a very good Oklahoma St. team. Fourteen-year head coach Mike Bellotti has moved on.
Chip Kelly, the former offensive coordinator at Oregon, takes over. The Ducks had one of the most explosive offenses in the country under Kelly.
Why they might Disappoint
Boise State, Boise State and Boise St. Give credit to Oregon for having the guts to schedule a game like this, but wow is this a dangerous game to have on your schedule to open the season. How many early year losses have put a season in a tailspin for a team?
Remember Arizona St. losing to UNLV before that big Georgia Bulldog game. A preseason top-25 team, the Sun Devils were never heard from again last season. The Ducks' defense gives up yards and points by the boatload, nearly 400 yards and and nearly 30 points a game, and now they lose talented pass rusher Nick Reed.
The first four games will tell the tale for the Ducks. After a scary test at Boise St, the Ducks face a mediocre Purdue squad, but then are games with Utah and California. An injury here or there, a couple of close games, and the Ducks could start the season 1-3. Get by those first four, and the Ducks could be a top-10 team.
The Bearcats had a dream season last year, 11-3, a Big East Championship, and a berth in the Orange Bowl. Senior quarterback, Tony Pike returns and so does talented wide receiver Mardy Gilyard. Why the cause for concern then?
Why they might Disappoint
You just don't replace 10 starters on defense, and get a new defensive coordinator, and expect not have some drop off. The schedule offers no favors either. The Bearcats have in September, a game at Rutgers, at Oregon St, and at home against Fresno St.
The Bearcats only play two home games before Oct. 24, and that isn't going make things easy for an inexperienced defense. Cincinnati is very skilled on offense, but so many losses on defense could spell trouble the Bearcats and coach Brian Kelly.
They aren't used to losing at Tennessee. One of the better programs SEC over the last 20 years is now spending more time competing with South Carolina and Kentucky than Florida and Georgia.
Last year's 5-7 season resulted in the departure of long time head coach Phillip Fulmer. In comes energetic young coach Lane Kiffen to try and turn it around.
Why they might Disappoint
I think Vol fans would be happy with an eight-win season anything more would be great. I could see another five or six wins occurring though. If Kiffen's coaching ability matches his ability to understand NCAA recruiting rules, the Vols could be in for long season.
Seriously, Kiffen will figure that out, it's the schedule he has to worry about. UCLA, @Florida, Auburn, Georgia, and @Alabama in the Vol's first seven games are all games they could lose.
The end of the season is manageable, with a game at Ole Miss as the only likely loss. My concern is that the first seven games, might have the Volunteers so beat up, the easy part of the schedule might come to late.
Those first seven games are not a warm welcome for the first year head coach. The Volunteer's do have possibly the country's best safety in All-American Eric Berry to help.