Realistic Upsets That Would Send the 2026-27 College Football Season into Chaos
Chaos hasn't really reared its wild-and-crazy head yet this season in college football, but there were Week 1 signs he was awakening from his slumber.
Colorado upset Georgia Tech on the road. UMass followed up last year's winless season by beating Rutgers to open this year. But nothing totally earth-shattering happened.
Oregon shook off a scare from Boise. Louisville roared back against Ole Miss only to lose on a last-second field goal. The biggest avoided blunder came when Michigan (allegedly) beat Western Michigan on a last-second Hail Mary that's still being contested.
So, were there upsets? Sure. But nothing too, too shocking. Still, we all know it's just a matter of time, right? These would turn the sport on its head.
Michigan over Oklahoma (Sept. 12)
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The Oklahoma Sooners are coming off a playoff showing a season ago and have aspirations of even bigger things this year as coach Brent Venables' program finally appears to be off and running.
Michigan has to block out all the noise and dodge the deserved strays from fans and media alike, as the Big Ten replay crew gave the Wolverines an extra second and an essential do-over Hail Mary last week to beat Western Michigan, 13-12.
Everything points to the Sooners winning on Saturday. But don't bet the house in the Big House.
Coach Kyle Whittingham has all the motivation he needs to light a fire under the Wolverines following a lackluster opener that still shows 1-0. There is plenty of talent on his roster. The Sooners haven't exactly displayed an offensive explosion with John Mateer under center.
This one could be closer than most expect. It would alter the season's trajectory for both powerhouse programs.
Houston over Texas Tech (Sept. 18)
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Before the Brendan Sorsby offseason gambling saga, Texas Tech was an almost lock pick for the College Football Playoff and an expected national title contender.
Whether they are or not, Will Hammond under center remains to be seen.
The Red Raiders are loaded essentially everywhere else, thanks to some shrewd recruiting and yet another massive transfer portal haul. They also have an extremely easy schedule, not even drawing Big 12 contenders like Utah or BYU on the schedule.
They do, however, host Willie Fritz's Houston Cougars in Lubbock in a couple of weeks, in a game where the visitors will be hungry to win. If they do, they could completely flip the script in the Big 12.
Fritz is a known program-builder. He has some incredibly nice pieces in Houston â enough to pull off the upset. The Red Raiders have a better roster, but if the Cougars can put pressure on Hammond, this one could get interesting.
South Carolina over Alabama (Sept. 26)
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SEC teams had better not sleep on South Carolina. If there's one sleeper team that could be lethal in shaking some trees out there, it's the Gamecocks.
Every week is a landmine in league play, so Coach Shane Beamer's team will have plenty of opportunities to do damage in the standings. They'll have to if he's going to keep his job.
This isn't the same team that won one league game last year. LaNorris Sellers is back under center. New offensive coordinator Kendal Briles has developed talent before. Sellers may have a better skill set than any of his previous field generals, too.
A season ago, they gave Alabama all it could handle in Columbia, losing 29-22. The Tide hosts them this year, as they have a better team. Beamer's bunch could be sneaky-strong, and it's early enough in the season to catch Kalen DeBoer's team by surprise.
This would be an SEC-shaking road win.
Florida over Ole Miss (Sept. 26)
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Florida's first-game, 66-21 win over Florida Atlantic in the Swamp went largely overlooked on the national spectrum, but that was impressive considering the Owls were a popular pick to cover.
Instead, new quarterback Aaron Philo looked terrific. Running back Jadan Baugh looked like one of the top playmakers in the SEC. This is a dangerous team in coach Jon Sumrall's first year in Gainesville.
It's not like the Gators are devoid of talent. There is plenty of it there. If they get a little bit of confidence, watch out.
Some (including me) picked Ole Miss in the SEC championship game during the preseason, but there were plenty of red flags in the back two levels of Pete Golding's defense in a narrow win over Louisville to start the season.
Traveling to the Swamp after what is sure to be an emotional showdown when Lane Kiffin brings LSU back to Oxford, the week will be an interesting comeback-to-earth-and-refocus test for the Rebels. This one could easily swing the Gators' direction.
UCLA over Oregon (Oct. 10)
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Let's not make any trigger-finger reactions to UCLA after its season-opening win over old Pac-12 foe California in Week 1. This team still has a long way to go to compete in the rugged Big Ten.
One thing is certain, though: The Bruins are a better team under first-year coach Bob Chesney. They're more disciplined, utilizing their talent and look more capable of going toe-to-toe with better foes.
When they go to Autzen Stadium in early October, the Bruins will have an opportunity to shock the world against a team many have pegged for the national championship.
The Ducks proved they were susceptible in the opener against a Boise State team that treated the showdown like a playoff game. It took a while for Oregon to match that intensity. Expect Chesney to have his team ready on the road.
He's much better equipped to compete than he was in last year's College Football Playoff as the coach of James Madison, but the Dukes played well then. UCLA will do the same this year.
BYU over Notre Dame (Oct. 17)
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There aren't many pitfalls on Notre Dame's football schedule, and very few things stand between the Fighting Irish and the College Football Playoff.
Not only do they have very few tough opponents; they've got a pretty loaded roster, too.
Of course, Miami (Nov. 7) and SMU (Nov. 21) will be tough outs, and North Carolina (Oct. 3) might be tougher than people expect. But an underrated-but-extremely tough test will come October 17 in Provo against BYU.
What if that game is at night? BYU is always tough to play in an absolutely raucous environment under the lights at LaVell Edwards Stadium. No matter where it is, though, the Cougars are going to be up and ready to play the Irish.
This is a national-spotlight team for coach Kalani Sitake's team, which has felt snubbed by the playoff committee in each of the past two years. This win would be a huge resume booster.
Pittsburgh over Miami (Oct. 24)
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There have been a few years over the course of Pat Narduzzi's time at Pittsburgh, where elements of the Panthers roster made you think they could break out.
Alas, they never have.
Of course, they haven't had a quarterback as talented as Mason Heintschel since Kenny Pickett. With Kade Bell calling plays, the Panthers are a dangerous opponent no matter who is standing on the other sideline.
Narduzzi always has a bunch of no-name recruits on defense that he turns into NFL stars. With the weapons Pitt has on offense, it's intriguing to see what the ceiling is.Â
They travel to Coral Gables in late October for what is almost certainly the game against the ACC's best opponent. With North Carolina and Notre Dame in the next two games, and rival Florida State before that, they could overlook Pitt.
That wouldn't be wise. This could be a shootout between the ACC's top two quarterbacks.
USC over Ohio State (Oct. 31)
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Ohio State looks loaded. Julian Sayin is a Heisman Trophy candidate. Jeremiah Smith is, too. Bo Jackson runs with reckless abandon. There are stars all over the defense.
Coach Ryan Day almost always has a couple of games a year where the Buckeyes don't look like the Buckeyes.Â
Their trip to Los Angeles to take on the Trojans is especially interesting. Yes, it comes after a bye, so that's good, but the week before that will be a heavyweight showdown with Indiana. The week after, Oregon comes to Columbus.
That's as tough a three-game stretch as any team in the nation faces.
USC's offense has explosive potential with Jayden Maiava leading the charge and a slew of young weapons on the perimeter.
The defense may not be quite good enough to battle for the Big Ten title yet, but if the game gets into a shootout, watch out. Lincoln Riley knows this is a national game that could reintroduce the Trojans to the national stage.
It'll be circled.
Virginia Tech over SMU (Nov. 6)
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Virginia Tech had to feel like it had walked into a dream when Penn State fired James Franklin midway through last season. The way the coach had come into the Commonwealth and poached top talent for years, there was only one hire for the Hokies to make.
They made it, and now, the once-proud program has high expectations again.
This year, growing pains are expected. Franklin still brought in a lot of good players to flip the roster, led by quarterback Ethan Grunkemeyer.Â
You can't make anything of a 73-3 season-opening win over VMI, but the Hokies are going to be better. In an ACC that looks somewhat open behind Miami, there's a lot of first-year goodwill to be earned.
SMU has playoff aspirations. With Kevin Jennings under center, the Mustangs should be explosive. A close win over Florida State proves they're beatable.Â
If the Hokies can beat them in November, it could knock the Mustangs out of the playoff and kick-start Franklin's program.
Missouri over Texas (Nov. 7)
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If you want a bold prediction after Week 1, the November 14 meeting between Texas and LSU will be for a spot in the SEC championship game.
The problem for the Longhorns and Tigers is that they can't overlook the week before. For LSU, it's a home game against Alabama. For the 'Horns, they have to travel to Missouri.
There's nothing exciting about CoMo in the winter. It's normally at least chilly at that time of year, with the wind whipping across the plains. It can wreak havoc on teams. It's a potential pitfall for anyone who goes there then.
Texas had better not overlook the game. Coach Eli Drinkwitz has been brutal in his career against ranked opponents (7-19 while at Mizzou), so the Longhorns have that on their side, but the Tigers have a capable quarterback in Austin Simmons.
By then, Ahmad Hardy will be back from his offseason gunshot wound and fully healthy. He's a load no matter who he's playing against. This game could be tougher than expected.
Washington over Indiana (Nov. 21)
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The Indiana Hoosiers are the defending national champion. They'll always be tough and disciplined as Curt Cignetti leads the way.
But they didn't look quite as invincible as you'd think at times during the season-opening win over North Texas. They still breezed through, 52-16, but it's going to be interesting to see if they're still the juggernaut they were last year after having to replace so many playmakers on both sides of the ball.
We'll know by this time late in the season, as the Hoosiers will already have faced several playoff-caliber opponents.
A cross-country trip to the Pacific Northwest at the tail end of the season, when a lot of the proverbial hay is in the barn, is an interesting test. By that time, the playoff picture will be sorting itself out.
Coach Jed Fisch's Huskies are expected to be a fringe possibility for the final 12. IU is definitely expected to be in. Could this game be an elimination game?
Tennessee over LSU (Nov. 21)
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The Tennessee Vols aren't ready to be a playoff contender this year, in what is almost certainly a transitional season as they break in true freshman quarterback Faizon Brandon.
The immediate future is extremely bright, though, and by the end of the season, some of those lumps Brandon will take during the year will be ironing themselves out if he's healthy.
The Vols have a favorable home schedule this season with tough games against Texas, Alabama and LSU in Neyland Stadium. Coach Lane Kiffin's team comes in very late in the year. As much as UT fans detest Kiffin (get in line, right?), that's going to be a rowdy atmosphere.
Kiffin's Bayou Bengals look loaded on both sides of the ball, but there are a lot of things that can be clicking late in the year for Tennessee. Veteran defenders should know Jim Knowles' scheme inside and out, and, again, Brandon could be locked in.
LSU needs to be prepared for a war on Rocky Top.
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