Big Ten Football: Predicting Each Team's Bowl Game
Welcome to bowl season, Big Ten football fans! It really is the most wonderful time of the year.
You know who's enjoying this season? None other than Michael Bolton in these hilarious Honda commercials. I've heard some people complain about them and wonder why the former hit pop singer is doing commercials now, but I just love them. He has accepted his place in (or out of) music quite well, and his comic timing and facial expressions certainly are humorous.
Somebody who probably wishes fans would think about Michael Bolton commercials and not him is Michigan State All-Big Ten linebacker Max Bullough. Per Kirkland Crawford of USA Today, Bullough was suspended for the Rose Bowl matchup with Stanford for an unspecified violation of team rules.
Two of the conference's most mobile quarterbacks, Nebraska's Taylor Martinez and Michigan's Devin Gardner, will miss their team's bowl game because of injury. Martinez hasn't played since Nebraska's loss to Minnesota in October, while Gardner will miss the the final game of the season because of a broken foot sustained in Michigan's loss to Ohio State.
By the way, how great was that game?
Don't worry, though. It's not all about suspensions and injuries. There is plenty to enjoy for the conference in this, the greatest of seasons. Even Indiana, Northwestern, Purdue and Illinois, who aren't bowl eligible, are all celebrating, as their coaches will all be back next year. Oh, and you know they're going to enjoy the shared bank from both Michigan State and Ohio State in BCS bowls.
Of course, I can imagine Penn State being a little leery with Bill O'Brien interviewing with the Houston Texans, according to the NFL Network's Ian Rapoport (h/t Gregg Rosenthal of NFL.com). Who knows, maybe he'll chum it up with the Texans brass during the Texas Bowl on December 28. Hopefully he can explain why his Nittany Lions lost at Minnesota in November and alternated wins and losses from the second to the final game of the season.
By the way, how come Capital One Bowl Week is, like, two weeks long? They've got to think of a better name.
On to the bowls!
Texas Bowl, Dec. 27, 6 p.m. ET, Minnesota vs. Syracuse
1 of 7
I'm happy to say that this is one of two Big Ten bowl games I'll be personally be attending this year, and I am actually fairly excited. Well, I'd say I'm more excited to watch Minnesota and Syracuse battle in what was last year called the Meineke Car Care Bowl than Texans fans are to watch their team do really anything this year.
Minnesota probably should have been invited to a better bowl game, but the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl messed pretty much everything up when it inexplicably took Michigan over both the Gophers and Nebraska. So here we are in Houston in late December. It's not Tempe, Ariz., or Jacksonville, Fla., but the 56 degree temperature at kickoff sure beats a balmy 25 in Minneapolis, Minn.
Regardless, the Golden Gophers are excited to be bowling for the second straight year under medically maligned coach Jerry Kill, who will hopefully be back on the sideline for the game against the Orange. He should inject some life into to Minnesota offense, which scored a total of 10 points in season-ending losses to Wisconsin and Michigan State.
An often overlooked statistic that may or may not mean something is that Minnesota went 1-4 against bowl-eligible BCS teams in 2013. The average score in its losses was 25-8. In the lone win, a 34-23 home win over Nebraska, the Gophers ran for 271 yards and three scores on 54 carries. That may not mean anything against Syracuse, as the Orange are 26th in the nation against the run.
Honestly, you couldn't find a more evenly matched bowl game. It's really uncanny how similar these teams are. A few examples:
- Passing offense: Minnesota 105th, Syracuse 87th
- Rushing offense: Minnesota 33rd, Syracuse 39th
- Scoring offense: Minnesota 79th, Syracuse 98th
- Total defense: Minnesota 41st, Syracuse 38th
- Pass efficiency defense: Minnesota 69th, Syracuse 64th
That's just fun right there. Neither team can pass, both teams like to run, neither team can stop the pass, neither team can score and both teams are fairly average on defense. Minnesota played a tougher schedule, but its did have two common opponents, Penn State and Northwestern. Minnesota defeated the Nittany Lions 24-10 at home and 20-17 at Northwestern, while the Orange dropped a 24-17 decision to Penn State and were drilled 48-27 at Northwestern the next week.
This one is tough, but I'm gonna go with the Gophers.
Prediction: Minnesota 28, Syracuse 16
Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, Dec. 28, 10 p.m. ET, Michigan vs. Kansas State
2 of 7
No BCS team returned fewer starters from 2012 than Kansas State did, and it showed in the first game of the season, when the Wildcats came from ahead to lose to two-time FCS champion North Dakota State.
Then, after starting 2-4, Bill Snyder's team finished a strong 4-1 and is looking to make strides toward another Big 12 championship in 2014.
Meanwhile, Michigan would probably rather forget most of the 2013 season. The Wolverines started 5-0, aided in part by lucky wins over Akron and UConn. But the wheels started to fall off in a hilarious display of kicker ineptitude by both Penn State and Michigan in a 43-40 Penn State win, and the Wolverines won only two games the rest of the way.
During a two-game stretch of losses to Michigan State and Nebraska, the Wolverines rushed for a combined minus-69 yards.
It really is the tale of teams headed in different directions, and the loss of Devin Gardner at quarterback hurts Michigan more than some folks would dare admit. He wasn't nearly the mobile threat many thought he would be, but Gardner had his moments, namely his performance against Notre Dame early in the season.
Both teams average 33 points per game, and both have roughly the same scoring defense. The difference is that Kansas State played in the pass-happy Big 12, while Michigan played in the run-oriented (for the most part) Big Ten. Advantage: Kansas State.
Prediction: Kansas State 28, Michigan 13
Gator Bowl, Jan. 1, 12 p.m. ET, Nebraska vs. Georgia
3 of 7
Stop me if you've heard this one before: Nebraska, fresh off a disappointing loss, heads to Florida to play an SEC East team in a game nearly zero analysts are picking it to win.
Oh, you mean that happened last year when the Cornhuskers played Georgia in the Capital One Bowl and lost 45-31 while being outgained 589-443? Yes, I remember now. I was there. I had great seats. I even caught the Jamal Turner touchdown pass on video—albeit it's difficult to watch because I jump up and down and scream and am overly excited that Nebraska actually scored a touchdown on mighty Georgia!
So here I go again. I'm heading to Jacksonville, Fla., for the Gator Bowl on New Year's Day, and my beloved Cornhuskers are in pretty much the same predicament they were in last year: heading into their bowl game against Georgia as underdogs. This year, though, things look a little different.
Let's get some things out of the way.
First, Bo Pelini is the head coach at Nebraska and will be for the foreseeable future. Please, Nebraska fans, stop with the constant negativity. It only hurts the program and makes you look bad.
Also, I have never seen two teams afflicted with the injury bug in so many different ways throughout a season. Neither team has its starting quarterback. Who knows what offensive linemen Nebraska will trot out onto the field, and how many receivers can Georgia go through?
Finally, the SEC East was much weaker than normal this season, and the Big Ten Legends Division was tougher than many gave it credit for.
Now that we have that taken care of, who is going to win this game? You have no idea how badly I want to be Kirk Herbstreit and be like, "Well, I'm going to this game, so I can't give a winner." Why? Well, my fanhood wants me to think of all the ways Nebraska can win, but I don't want to say Nebraska and be labeled as just a fan.
My other side wants me to look at all the ways Georgia can win, and trust me when I say you don't want to get those emails and comments from your own fanbase when you pick against it.
I feel your pain, Herbie, I really do.
Is Nebraska's backup quarterback(s) better than Georgia's? Well, both Tommy Armstrong Jr. and Ron Kellogg III have more time under center than Bulldog signal-caller Hutson Mason, but Mason looked stronger in his two games. His name is also more fun to say.
At the end of the day, it boils down to how well Nebraska holds onto the football. Turnovers absolutely doomed the tram against Michigan State and Iowa, and they will be a key factor in the Gator Bowl. Georgia is missing key pieces in its secondary.
If Armstrong or Kellogg can make the key throws, Nebraska should win. They haven't shown me they can, though. I'm sorry, Nebraska fans.
Prediction: Georgia 31, Nebraska 30
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
Capital One Bowl, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET, Wisconsin vs. South Carolina
4 of 7
There's good news for Wisconsin: The Badgers can't lose their fourth straight Rose Bowl Game because they're facing speedy Jadeveon Clowney and the South Carolina Gamecocks in the Capital One Bowl.
Wisconsin is a team that has honestly perplexed me for much of the season. The Badgers are sixth in the nation against the run (allowing just over 100 yards per game), 12th in passing defense, seventh in pass efficiency defense and fourth in third-down conversion defense. The punishing Badger rushing attack is eighth in the nation.
Then they give up 32 points in one of the most bizarre endings I have ever seen in their 32-30 loss at Arizona State, 31 points in a 31-24 defeat at the hands of Braxton Miller and the Ohio State Buckeyes and 31 points to Penn State in their season-ending 31-24 loss to the Nittany Lions.
We know now that a win over Penn State wouldn't have propelled the Badgers into a BCS Bowl because Michigan State defeated Ohio State a week later, but the loss is still perplexing.
One thing stands out to me: Wisconsin loses when the opposing team scores more than 30 points.
Of course that is not always the case. For example, Illinois scored 32 points and the Badgers put up 56. But that is the only case in which the opposing team scored more than 30 points and lost.
The bad news for the Wisconsin faithful is that South Carolina heads to Orlando scoring 34 points per game, led by tough and stout quarterback Connor Shaw. Of course, it should be noted that the Gamecocks did all their scoring while not playing Alabama, LSU or Texas A&M (although I doubt the Aggies would have stopped Shaw) and facing the extremely subpar Florida Gators at home. It should be noted as well that the final score of the Florida game was a 19-14 South Carolina win.
Like most of the games on the Big Ten docket, these teams are a lot alike. Both play sound defense and use a steady dose of power running to set up play action passes. Wisconsin quarterback Joel Stave especially likes to find reliable receiver Jared Abbrederis streaking through soft spots in defenses.
If the Badgers can keep South Carolina to three touchdowns or fewer, they'll win. I think they will.
Prediction: Wisconsin 28, South Carolina 20
Outback Bowl, Jan. 1, 1 p.m. ET, Iowa vs. LSU
5 of 7
If you were to walk up to somebody on the street, say somebody with minimal knowledge of college football, and ask him who would win between Iowa and LSU, he would probably say the Tigers without thinking.
After all, the Mad Hatter Les Miles' boys have been elite in recent years, and Iowa is, well, it's a state in the center of the country that we think grows corn and has blustery cold winters.
Here's the thing: Both of those statements are correct. LSU has been playing great football, and Iowa does grow corn.
It would be a major mistake to assume the Hawkeyes don't play good football, though. They own wins over Michigan and Nebraska (no, I'm not kidding) and were extremely competitive in losses to both Michigan State and Ohio State.
For a schedule that also included Wisconsin and Northern Illinois, Iowa's 8-4 record is nothing short of a miracle turnaround from its abysmal 4-8 2012 campaign.
Let's not overthink this though. Iowa is good, but the Hawkeyes will be battling an LSU squad that owns wins over Texas A&M and Auburn. Yeah, that crazy lucky Auburn team that's playing for yet another national championship.
The Tigers, much like Nebraska and Georgia, will be without their starting quarterback in a game that I'm certain won't be decided by arms so much as it'll be decided by legs. LSU runs for just over 200 yards per game, and the Hawkeyes counter with a bruising attack that averages just under 190 yards per game.
If LSU is put into passing situations, it will be interesting to see how Les Miles freshman Anthony Jennings' arm. Jennings threw the game-winning touchdown against Arkansas, but when as a team do you want to have to say, "Hey, we came back against Arkansas!"?
Here are my thoughts: Iowa and LSU will both run the football. It will be a beautiful day in Tampa, as the Weather Channel said so. A lot of pasty folks from Iowa City will get sunburned. This might be the quickest bowl game we've ever seen.
Prediction: LSU 17, Iowa 13
The Rose Bowl, Jan. 1, 5 p.m. ET, Michigan State vs. Stanford
6 of 7
OK, so maybe I lied. Maybe this will be the quickest bowl game we've ever seen. With the most punts. And the most Brent Musberger cliches of all time. Seriously, how many references to sound defense and Max Bullough's family ties to the Michigan State program do you think the guy will make? The over/under has to be about 30.
This should be a great game. Besides watching Oregon hopefully destroy Texas in the Alamo Bowl, this is the game I'm most looking forward to. Let's face it, this is going to be a display of sound defense. These are running teams. They do have powerful offensive and defensive lines. The only thing missing is two feet of snow and a couple Keith Jackson "Whoa Nelly" moments to make it possibly the best football matchup of the season.
Is this one of those games where the first team to 13 wins? Maybe, but I don't think so. Stanford runs the ball very well, and Michigan State's much crowed-about defense has actually given up more big runs than you'd think.
If there's a crack in the Stanford armor, it's through the air. If Connor Cook can set up the play-action pass, the Spartans should be able to throw the ball on the nation's 89th-ranked passing defense. But with the being said, it will be no easy task running against the a defense that allows just 91 yards on the ground.
This was the second-toughest bowl game for me to decide. But with Bullough suspended for something I'm certain we'll never know about, because Mark Dantonio protects his players like they're his children, I had to go with the Cardinal. I think they'll run the ball better than expected against the Spartans and come away with a thrilling victory.
Prediction: Stanford 20, Michigan State 17
Orange Bowl, Jan. 3, 8:30 P.m. ET, Ohio State vs Clemson
7 of 7
I still find it odd that a conference runner-up gets to play in a bowl game after the conference champion, but that's what happens when you're Ohio State and you stumble in the final game of the season with a berth in the national championship game on the line.
But I'm over that.
The Buckeyes should be excited to be in Miami representing the Big Ten in the BCS. And if the players aren't excited, I can think of 10 other teams that would gladly take their place. So yeah, Buckeyes, don't be Alabama in the 2008 Sugar Bowl and get waxed by a team you're clearly better than simply because you didn't go to the national championship game.
OK, so maybe the Buckeyes aren't clearly better than Clemson. Braxton Miller doesn't have a throwing motion nearly as gorgeous as Tajh Boyd does, and the Tigers are actually 16 yards better per game defensively than Ohio State.
Let's also not forget that in their last two games, Urban Meyer's squad allowed a total of 72 points.
Last season's Big Ten runner-up, Nebraska, allowed 77 in its final two games. Sure, one of those games was a 70-31 whipping at the hands of Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game, but the point is that both teams had similar outcomes heading into their bowl matchups. To be sure, 2013 Ohio State is much better than 2012 Nebraska was. Heck, 2012 Ohio State hammered 2012 Nebraska.
Ohio State and Clemson should both score massive amounts of points. They're both electric on offense. The biggest matchup to watch is Clemson's high-powered passing versus against Ohio State's 103rd-ranked pass defense.
If the Buckeyes don't clamp down and play like they want to be there, the game could get out of hand in the second half.
Prediction: Clemson 37, Ohio State 35
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
