College Football's 10 Best Bets for Week 14
College football's regular season is winding down to a close, as Week 14 will be the final full slate of games until next fall.
For bettors, this signals an important holiday—one last chance to have so many games from which to pick. After this comes conference championship week, and beyond that we move quickly into bowl season.
In some ways, this should then be a very good week for handicappers. There will never be so many games to choose from with quite this much data on how each team performs.
Hard data ignores the beauty of rivalry week, though, where extra-rowdy hometown crowds are sometimes able to skew the results.
Here's a look at Week 14's best bets.
Note: All spread information is courtesy of Vegas Insider.
10. Baylor at TCU (+12.5)
1 of 10
The Pick: Baylor
Had Baylor beaten Oklahoma State, I was excited to fade them against TCU, which I think would have been able to catch it napping and cover a much larger line.
Instead, value is way down on the Bears, who have actually seen money go the other way, betting this from minus-14 to its current spot at minus-12.5.
I believe this team was exposed as being overrated last week but not necessarily as being bad. TCU has enough good secondary guys to cause problems, but I think the Baylor defense will rebound nicely against a stagnant offense.
I trust Art Briles to pick his boys up following a loss. If they play up to their collective potential, the Bears should be able to cover this line.
9. Northwestern at Illinois (+3.5)
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The Pick: Illinois
We're going streaking!
After finally winning a Big Ten game under Tim Beckman last week, Illinois seeks to end the season with a winning streak, which would give it plenty of momentum to carry over into 2014.
This one will be tougher because anything is tougher than playing Purdue. Northwestern, though better overall than Illinois this season, looked like a team that has given up against Michigan State last week—and that was when it still had a chance at making the postseason.
I see no reason for the Wildcats to wake up for this game, save maybe the excellent coaching of Pat Fitzgerald. Strictly because I believe in that motivation, I like the Illini in a straight-up upset, but I don't mind getting the hook at over a field goal.
8. Virginia Tech at Virginia (+13)
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The Pick: Virginia Tech
When last we saw the Hokies, they were losing a game they had no business losing against Maryland, which cost them a lead in the ACC Coastal.
With a bye week to prepare for Virginia, though, Frank Beamer should have this team ready to blow out its in-state rival. Virginia Tech in inconsistent, but it's capable of playing well for 60 minutes.
UVA was no match for Miami last weekend, and Virginia Tech made impressive work of that same Hurricanes team on the road. Especially if Duke loses to UNC, making this game a must-win, the Hokies should be able to stomp Virginia by two-plus touchdowns.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
7. Miami at Pittsburgh (+2.5)
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The Pick: Pittsburgh
It was far from pretty, but Pittsburgh won its sixth game of the season by one point at Syracuse last week, becoming bowl eligible for the fifth consecutive year.
Now it gets to face a Miami team that stopped the bleeding against Virginia last weekend but still simply isn't that good. This defense is in shambles, and especially at home, Pitt has enough capable bodies to exploit it.
The Panthers lost their most recent home game by one touchdown against North Carolina, but the Tar Heels are playing tremendous football right now. Before that, they upset a plucky Notre Dame team that's scored its fair share of quality wins.
I like those odds—getting some points, no less—against a team that I've been fading successfully the entire season.
6. Notre Dame (+14) at Stanford
5 of 10
The Pick: Notre Dame
You never know what you're gonna get with the Irish, who are capable of looking fantastic one week, then dreadful the next.
I can't imagine that this team comes out sluggish in a signature game at Stanford, though. Even though Notre Dame has struggled on the road this year, it's capable of playing at a very high level, as proven in wins against Michigan State, Arizona State and USC.
I don't think Tommy Rees is capable of winning a game in Palo Alto, but I do think he can make a few big throws and exploit some of the same holes that Utah did. Notre Dame's defense is still loaded with future NFL players, even if it's a notch worse than last year's.
Stanford by 7-10 points sounds about right.
5. Alabama at Auburn (+10.5)
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The Pick: Alabama
I can buy Auburn as one of the 15 best teams in America, and I can buy Jordan-Hare Stadium as one of the five most daunting venues, but this is not enough points.
The Tigers need to run the ball in order to be successful, and Alabama is stout defending the run. Throwing Nick Marshall's arm into a big-game situation—and daring him to beat a Kirby Smart defense—is not a recipe for success.
On the other side of the ball, teams with comparable offenses to Alabama's (Texas A&M and Georgia) have found a lot of success against the Tigers defense, and I expect the same thing on Saturday.
Alabama should put up something in the realm of 35-38 points—easily. Can the Tigers score somewhere in the realm of 24?
I'm comfortable betting on "no."
4. Georgia at Georgia Tech (+3)
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The Pick: Georgia Tech
Even before Aaron Murray tore his ACL, I thought Georgia Tech would have a shot in this game. Now, still curiously favored to lose, I love them as a moneyline bet.
Georgia's rush defense was solid for most of the season, but it was exposed in a big way against Auburn, ceding more than 300 yards on the ground.
Auburn is obviously better than Georgia Tech in that facet of the game, but not by as much as you might think. The Yellow Jackets' triple-option attack can give Georgia some of the same problems Auburn did, only now Murray won't be around to save the day on the other side of the ball.
Bulldogs fans will make the trek to Atlanta, but that hardly dissuades me. Georgia Tech is going to win this game.
3. Texas A&M (+4.5) at Missouri
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The Pick: Missouri
I don't expect Johnny Manziel to have a second consecutive pitiful game, but I don't fully expect him to start putting up video game numbers on the road at Mizzou.
That is not an indictment of Mr. Football, by the way. He is the best. I just think it's about time this Tigers team started to get some credit—on both sides of the ball.
I was surprised at how trendy of a pick Ole Miss was to beat Missouri last weekend. I listed the Tigers among my best bets and was reward for my faith; save one dreadful quarter against South Carolina, this team has been dominant at all times in 2013.
This line is still too low for me. On the heels of what LSU did to the Aggies, shouldn't it be closer to a touchdown (if not more)? I'd like to think so.
2. Boston College at Syracuse (+2.5)
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The Pick: Boston College
Syracuse's run defense has been Jekyll and Hyde all year. In the past five games alone, it has held Wake Forest, Maryland and Pittsburgh to 142 yards on 81 carries (1.75 YPC) but also allowed Florida State and Georgia Tech to rush for 619 yards on 86 carries (7.20 YPC).
The keystone variable there should be obvious. Florida State and Georgia Tech rank ninth and 11th in national yards per carry, while Maryland, Pitt and Wake rank 83rd, 117th and 119th, respectively.
Boston College is No. 14 in yards per rushing attempt, and Heisman dark horse Andre Williams should be able to find success against a run defense that is all smoke and mirrors. The Eagles have been competitive in every game this season, including road trips to much tougher environs (at USC and Clemson) than upstate New York.
They should be able to cover this line.
1. Army (+6.5) at Hawaii
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The Pick: Hawaii
This is Hawaii's last chance to avoid going down in infamy.
The Rainbow Warriors know that they are better than a zero-loss team, but if they squander this opportunity to beat a bad opponent, that will be the only thing for which they are remembered. They will forever be the team that went winless.
I think they will come out with gusto to avoid that ignominy, which should propel the Warriors to a comfortable win, since I also think they're the (much) more talented team.
Army is traveling about as far as logistically possible for a game that means nothing to it's season. What reason does it have to show up with fire on Saturday?
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
