The Dangers of Reading the LeBron James Free-Agency Tea Leaves

LeBron James wants to bring an MLS team to Miami, so he's clearly going to stay with the Miami Heat for the rest of his career. It doesn't matter at all that he's going to be a free agent at the end of the 2013-14 NBA season.

This is an obvious sign. We might as well flock to Las Vegas and empty our bank accounts into bets that he'll remain with the Heat.

Or not. 

B/R's Ethan Skolnick has indeed reported that LeBron and David Beckham have discusses bringing MLS to South Beach, but that doesn't necessarily mean we should start reading the tea leaves and trying to determine what he'll do in free agency.

Far from it. 

How Much Does the News Actually Mean?

Not much.

First of all, this isn't the only soccer team that LeBron has gotten directly involved with. He's also an investor for Liverpool FC, one of the more well-known teams in the Premier League. 

Has LeBron moved to Liverpool? Does he have a house near Anfield so he can keep a close eye on the Reds? Has he decided to go to the local NBA team in free agency?

Obviously that's a great example of "reductio ad absurdum" (pursuing an argument to the point of absurdity), but the point still stands. Business moves don't necessarily preclude free-agency decisions that involve leaving town.

Although we can attempt to glean as much information as possible, this desire to bring an MLS team to South Beach doesn't have to mean he's there for the long haul.

Just read how Skolnick phrased his analysis later on in his report:

"

This interest in a major Miami project might curtail some of the growing speculation that James will explore free agency this summer, when he can opt out of his Heat contract. At the very least, this endeavor suggests that he's acclimating to South Florida.

"

"Might." "Growing speculation." "At the very least." "Suggests."

The language is intentionally vague and noncommittal, because nothing is certain. Even after a business decision like this, we're still left speculating rather than working with cold, hard facts.

Plus, how many team owners operate from abroad? How many live in different places? What if LeBron is trying to do this so that he can be more actively involved down the road when he retires?

On top of that, Skolnick reveals that Serena Williams and Jennifer Lopez are part-owners of the Miami Dolphins. The former travels around the world at all times (even if she does call Florida home), and the latter is spotted in Los Angeles and New York (her birth place) far more frequently than anywhere else. 

Again, business decisions are just that: business decisions. But let's expand the scope beyond the potential MLS franchise.

There are more tea leaves than one.

Precedent

What happened the last time?

Cleveland Cavaliers fans, shield your eyes and scroll down until the video is out of sight. The words spoken in it may still feel like body blows.

So, who saw that coming? Did the majority of people following "The Decision" expect LeBron James to take his talents to South Beach, spurning his hometown and the team he'd spent the entire beginning of his career with?

If only.

LeBron's choice was greeted with shock and awe, evoking such a passionate response from the Cleveland faithful that his jersey was burned in the street.

It didn't matter that there were signs pointing toward a departure from the Cavs. There were also signals that he would stay put, and no matter what you believed, you were still speculating.

Nothing is definite in this field. Players make decisions based on what they believe at the moment, and that moment changes rather fluidly.

What exactly is the precedent for James' upcoming free-agency decision?

You can point toward "The Decision," but that was still an event mired in uncertainty, enough uncertainty that a live television special still had plenty of intrigue.

And historically, there's even less precedent. When has the league's best player been viewed as potentially on the move—while in his prime—after winning two titles and going to the NBA Finals three seasons in a row? At least two and three, as those numbers could increase by one at the end of this campaign.

These tea leaves might be taking shape, but there's still no reading them. 

LeBron Is an Ultra-Focused Individual 

Let's not forget just how focused LeBron is on the task at hand. 

If you watch the video included in the last section again, you'll hear Jim Gray referencing LeBron waking up with a certain decision in his mind. I have no trouble believing it actually happened that way, as he's so ultra-focused on each and every moment that he doesn't need to think so far ahead. 

Do you actually think that LeBron has decided what he's going to do beyond the 2013-14 season? 

No—insert emphatic word of your choosing here—way.

He's solely focused on keeping the Heat on the path toward a third title in a row. That's his only goal, and it's the only thing drawing his attention right now. He's chasing a three-peat (and historical greatness), and that doesn't allow thoughts about the future to creep into his mind.

To be the best player in the world and keep improving, there's no other way to handle things. And how else do you explain LeBron shooting over 60 percent from the field this year? How do you explain him continuing to get better as a cerebral offensive player?

Therein lies the true danger of attempting to read the tea leaves. 

How can they point toward a decision when no decision has been made?