BCS Rankings 2013: Predicting the Final BCS Rankings
With only five more weeks left in the college football season, fans across the nation have begun to wonder which teams are for real and which ones are not.
Will Alabama make its third straight appearance in the BCS title game and fourth in the last five years? Does an undefeated Ohio State squad get left out in the cold again? Is Jameis Winston capable of leading Florida State back to glory?
These are just a couple of the questions that will be answered over the next month.
But why wait?
Here’s a prediction of the final BCS rankings of 2013.
Author’s Note: These rankings were BEFORE potential bowl games. The BCS does not release standings at the conclusion of bowl games. Current BCS rankings are based off the latest BCS Standings.
25. LSU
1 of 25
Current Record: 7-2
Current BCS Ranking: 12
Projected Record: 8-4
Projected Losses: at Alabama (Nov. 9), vs. Texas A&M (Nov. 23)
The Skinny
What’s going on with the Tigers?
The season began wonderfully, as the team raced out to a 4-0 record. Not to mention, quarterback Zach Mettenberger (65.4 CMP%, 2,492 YDs, 19 TDs, 7 INTs, 177.1 RAT) had the offense racking up the yards like a video game.
Unfortunately, LSU’s season slid off the tracks, as the team lost two of its next four games and needed a third-quarter rally to dispose of FCS foe Furman on Oct. 26.
Furthermore, Mettenberger has thrown six interceptions over his last four games. In comparison, the senior had thrown just one over the Tigers first five contests.
With back-to-back showdowns against the Crimson Tide and Aggies on deck, this slump couldn’t have come at a worse time.
Four losses is a very likely possibility for LSU.
24. Georgia
2 of 25
Current Record: 5-3
Current BCS Ranking: n/a
Projected Record: 8-4
Projected Losses: at Georgia Tech (Nov. 30)
The Skinny
We can only imagine just how good the Bulldogs would have been right now if they hadn’t been victimized by the injury bug.
The team was riding high after winning three of its first four games—including three matchups with Top-10 opponents. Georgia was up to No. 6 in the rankings and seemed to be a major threat to Alabama and the rest of the SEC.
Unfortunately, the team lost running back Todd Gurley in its 44-41 victory over LSU on Sept. 28.
Since then, the Bulldogs have struggled to win two games while losing two others along with other key role players.
The return of Gurley should help the team upset Auburn. However, the loss of top targets in the passing game will be too much to overcome for Georgia in the season finale.
It’ll be a game that sums up the team’s season perfectly.
23. Oklahoma State
3 of 25
Current Record: 7-1
Current BCS Ranking: 14
Projected Record: 9-3
Projected Losses: at Texas (Nov. 16), vs. Oklahoma (Dec. 7)
The Skinny
The preseason Big 12-title favorites are finally playing as such.
After a rather inconsistent start to the season, the Cowboys finally seem to have things figured out. Quarterback Clint Chelf proved to be worthy of the starting spot, throwing for 211 yards and two touchdowns while adding another 88 yards and two scores on the ground in a 52-34 victory over then-No. 15 Texas Tech.
Furthermore, the team seems to finally have found a rushing attack, led by running back Desmond Roland—57 CAR, 315 YDs, 7 TDs over the last two games.
Unfortunately, Oklahoma State still has far too many holes that will prevent it from any conference success.
Although the team will defeat Baylor at home, contests against the Longhorns and Sooners will ultimately be the Cowboys undoing.
.jpg?w=256 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
22. Missouri
4 of 25
Current Record: 8-1
Current BCS Ranking: 8
Projected Record: 9-3
Projected Losses: at Ole Miss (Nov. 23), vs. Texas A&M (Nov. 30)
The Skinny
The Tigers regained some of their swagger in trashing Tennessee 31-3 last weekend. However, the damage had already been done in the team’s loss to South Carolina the week before.
If anything, that game provides opponents with a blueprint on how to defeated Missouri.
Fortunately, starting quarterback James Franklin is set to return this weekend, via The Associated Press. The senior should add a sense of calmness for the Tigers under center.
But the team’s vulnerabilities on defense have already been exposed.
That could prove to be too much for Missouri’s final two games: A road trip to Ole Miss—a very good team at home—and the nation’s No. 2-ranked offense in Texas A&M.
Not only will it be a big blow to the team’s spirit, but it will also cost the Tigers a berth to the SEC title game.
21. South Carolina
5 of 25
Current Record: 7-2
Current BCS Ranking: 12
Projected Record: 9-4
Projected Losses: vs. Clemson (Nov. 30), vs. Alabama (SEC title game)
The Skinny
With quarterback Connor Shaw under center, the Gamecocks believe they can win any game.
That has become evident from the senior’s performance over the last two weeks. After throwing for 201 yards and three touchdowns to lead South Carolina to a comeback, 27-24, double-overtime victory on Oct. 26, Shaw threw for four scores and 147 yards to put away Mississippi State 34-16 last weekend.
He has put together an impressive 18-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.
Backed by Shaw’s performance, and the fine performance by running back Mike Davis (166 CAR, 1,058 YDs, 10 TDs), the Gamecocks should sneak into the SEC title game.
But a shaky defense will leave the team exposed against the Tigers’ Tajh Boyd and the Tide’s rushing attack.
Not even Shaw will be able to help South Carolina in those games.
20. Fresno State
6 of 25
Current Record: 8-0
Current BCS Ranking: 16
Projected Record: 11-1
Projected Losses: at Wyoming (Nov. 9)
The Skinny
Quarterback Derek Carr (69.2 CMP%, 3,061 YDs, 28 TDs, 4 INTs, 150.7 RAT) has helped the Bulldogs become one of the nation’s most explosive offenses. The team averages 539.9 yards and 43.9 points per game.
Conversely, the defense hasn’t been doing its part, conceding 29.0 points per game to opponents.
That could be a problem against a pretty good Cowboys offense. The unit ranks No. 21 in passing (297.4 YPG) and No. 21 in rushing (218.9 YPG) while ranking No. 9 in total offense (516.0 YPG).
Did we mention, the contest will be played on the road?
Fresno State showed its vulnerability in its last road contest—a 35-28 victory over San Diego State in overtime. This time around, the opponent is tougher and the pressure will be even higher.
Unfortunately, one slip up will be enough to cost Carr and his teammates a shot at a BCS bowl.
19. Arizona State
7 of 25
Current Record: 6-2
Current BCS Ranking: 24
Projected Record: 9-3
Projected Losses: at UCLA (Nov. 23)
The Skinny
The Sun Devils may have received some help from the officials during their 32-30 victory over Wisconsin on Sept. 14. But don’t mistake the team as not deserving of its record.
Led by quarterback Taylor Kelly (62.9 CMP%, 2,826 TOT YDs, 28 TDs, 8 INTs, 150.3 RAT), Arizona State has put up points with the best of them.
The team ranks sixth in the nation in scoring, averaging 46.6 points per game. That includes scoring 53 points or more in four of the last five contests.
The Sun Devils should continue to light up the scoreboard until falling to quarterback Brett Hundley and the Bruins, ending the team’s bid for a berth in the Pac 12 title game.
Regardless, this season has turned out a lot better than Arizona State could have ever imagined back in the preseason.
18. Baylor
8 of 25
Current Record: 7-0
Current BCS Ranking: 6
Projected Record: 10-2
Projected Losses: at Oklahoma State (Nov. 23), at TCU (Nov. 30)
The Skinny
Don’t be fooled by the Bears mind-boggling offensive statistics.
Thus far, the offensive unit has looked like something out of a video game. Entering Week 10, Baylor leads the nation in both total offense (717.3 YPG) and scoring (63.9 PPG).
However, almost nobody in the nation has played an easier seven-game schedule than the Bears.
Up to this point, the team has played opponents with a combined record of 27-31. In comparison, Baylor’s remaining five opponents have a mark of 30-12.
Not to mention, the team has played just two games on the road, struggling immensely in one.
While the Bears should beat both Oklahoma and Texas Tech over the next two weeks, don’t expect the offense to put up gaudy numbers.
But road trips against the Cowboys and Horned Frogs will prove to be too much to overcome for the team.
17. Ole Miss
9 of 25
Current Record: 5-3
Current BCS Ranking: n/a
Projected Record: 9-3
Projected Losses: none
The Skinny
It’s been a pretty trying first half of the season for the Rebels.
After winning its first three games of the season, the team lost its next three. It didn’t help that Ole Miss lost quite a few key contributors on defense to injury.
As it turns out, all the team needed was some home cooking.
Four of the Rebels first five games were on the road. Conversely, six of the team’s last seven are at home.
Thus far, it’s proved beneficial, as Ole Miss lost a close one to Texas A&M before toppling then-No. 6 LSU 27-24 the following week.
Now, just a visit from Missouri stands in the team’s way of wrapping up the season on a six-game winning streak.
16. Louisville
10 of 25
Current Record: 7-1
Current BCS Ranking: 20
Projected Record: 11-1
Projected Losses: none
The Skinny
A 38-35 loss to UCF on Oct. 18 killed two birds with one stone. Not only did the Cardinals’ dream of winning the BCS title get derailed, but quarterback Teddy Bridgewater also watched his Heisman campaign wash away.
But don’t expect Louisville to go quietly.
As long as Bridgewater is under center—73.7 CMP%, 2,557 YDs, 23 TDs, 2 INTs, 191.6 RAT—the team will be just fine. In fact, even in the loss, the junior played superbly, throwing for 341 yards and two scores.
Not to mention, the Cardinals have a pretty light schedule the rest of the way.
Running the table is pretty much expected.
15. UCLA
11 of 25
Current Record: 6-2
Current BCS Ranking: 19
Projected Record: 10-3
Projected Losses: vs. Oregon (Pac 12 title game)
The Skinny
The injury to running back Jordon James (80 CAR, 471 YDs, 5 TDs) has hurt a once promising season for the Bruins.
Without the junior in the lineup, the team dropped consecutive contests to Stanford and Oregon. Although James returned to face Colorado last weekend, he didn’t look completely healthy, mustering just eight yards on six carries.
Regardless, UCLA’s offense seemed to re-discover some of its punch last weekend, and the team should have no problem winning out the rest of the way.
Unfortunately, a rematch with Oregon in the Pac 12 title game will result in yet another loss.
14. Auburn
12 of 25
Current Record: 8-1
Current BCS Ranking: 9
Projected Record: 10-3
Projected Losses: vs. Georgia (Nov. 16), vs. Alabama (Nov. 30)
The Skinny
The Tigers have easily been one of the biggest surprises in all of college football in 2013.
Not only has the team shown the ability to put up points—30 points or more in seven of nine games—but Auburn’s defense has been a lot better than expected, limiting opponents to 20 points or less five times.
But the play of running back Tre Mason and quarterback Nick Marshall has been the most impressive aspect of the Tigers season.
Together the two have made the team a formidable opponent for just about anybody. That became evident during Auburn’s 45-41 upset of then-No. 7 Texas A&M on Oct. 19.
But while there’s no doubt the team has made vast improvements, a rejuvenated Bulldogs team, along with the Tide, will prove to be a little too much for the Tigers.
13. Wisconsin
13 of 25
Current Record: 6-2
Current BCS Ranking: 24
Projected Record: 10-2
Projected Losses: None
The Skinny
As hard as it is to say, but a mistake by the Pac 12 officials is the only thing that may cost the Badgers an at-large bid in a BCS bowl.
Other than that, the team has been outstanding.
Running back Melvin Gordon has been one of the hottest rushers in the nation. The sophomore has racked up 1,074 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground, recording at least 140 yards and a score in six of Wisconsin’s eight games.
With three of the team’s remaining four games at home, it’s a pretty good chance we don’t see the Badgers lose again.
12. UCF
14 of 25
Current Record: 6-1
Current BCS Ranking: 21
Projected Record: 11-1
Projected Losses: None
The Skinny
The Knights shocked college football with their 38-35 victory over Louisville on Oct. 18, a game in which the team rallied from a 28-7 deficit in the second half.
UCF cemented its rise by thrashing Connecticut 62-17 the following week.
Now, who’s going to stand in the team’s way?
Through seven games, the Knights rank No. 28 in scoring, averaging 37.0 points per game. At the same time, the team has put together quite a stout defense, limiting opponents to just 19.3 points per game.
If it weren’t for Northern Illinois, UCF would be the team that has everyone talking.
11. Northern Illinois
15 of 25
Current Record: 9-0
Current BCS Ranking: 18
Projected Record: 13-0
Projected Losses: none
The Skinny
It’s time to see what the Huskies are made of.
With matchups against 8-1 Ball State and 6-3 Toledo up next, Northern Illinois has a pretty tough road ahead. In fact, it could be said that the two foes makeup the toughest teams the Huskies have faced all season.
However, as long as quarterback Jordan Lynch is in the team’s huddle, Northern Illinois will be just fine.
Through nine games, the senior has thrown for 1,871 yards, 19 touchdowns and five interceptions on 63.6 percent passing while adding another 1,150 yards and 12 scores on the ground. That includes throwing for at least 150 yards and rushing for at least 80 yards in seven of their nine contests.
It would be anything but a surprise if the Huskies didn’t finish undefeated and earn the team its second straight at-large berth to a BCS bowl.
10. Oklahoma
16 of 25
Current Record: 7-1
Current BCS Ranking: 10
Projected Record: 10-2
Projected Losses: at Baylor (Nov. 7)
The Skinny
This was supposed to be nothing more than a transition year for the Sooners.
Breaking in a new quarterback has proven to be a little more difficult than head coach Bob Stoops had expected. Week 1 starter Travis Knight played poorly and has since been replaced with Blake Bell—who has had his own fair share of ups and downs.
However, it’s been the defense that has been the story of the year for Oklahoma.
The team should suffer another setback against the Bears and their high-powered offense. But don’t expect the Sooners to lose again.
A Fiesta Bowl appearance will be the team’s reward.
9. Miami
17 of 25
Current Record: 7-1
Current BCS Ranking: 11
Projected Record: 11-2
Projected Losses: vs. Florida State (ACC title game)
The Skinny
Losing to the Seminoles is excusable. Behind Jameis Winston’s play at quarterback, Florida State has been nearly unstoppable.
However, losing in the fashion the Hurricanes did, 41-14, is just downright embarrassing.
Fortunately, the team’s remaining schedule doesn’t boast much in terms of formidable opponents. Spiraling Virginia Tech and Duke are as tough as it gets.
It should all lead to another date with Florida State, this time in the conference title game.
Although Miami should once again lose, expect it to be a lot closer the second time around.
8. Stanford
18 of 25
Current Record: 7-1
Current BCS Ranking: 5
Projected Record: 10-2
Projected Losses: at USC (Nov. 16)
The Skinny
After beating Oregon this weekend, the Cardinal will be flying high. A Pac 12 title run will seem to be all but a sure thing and BCS championship game hopes will be revitalized.
Unfortunately, the high will only last a week, as Stanford will lose its next game against unranked USC.
Just like what happened against Utah, expect the Cardinal to struggle to pass the ball against a Trojans defense that is finally playing well again.
In front of the home fans, USC will do just enough to put the game away.
Stanford will rebound, winning its rivalry game against Cal and then by dashing Notre Dame’s BCS hopes. The best the team can hope for after that is an at-large bid to a BCS bowl.
It will be a disappointing finish for a team that began the season with such high hopes.
7. Ohio State
19 of 25
Current Record: 9-0
Current BCS Ranking: 4
Projected Record: 12-1
Projected Losses: vs. Michigan State (Big Ten title game)
The Skinny
Head coach Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes are both chasing history.
More specifically, they’re trying to put together back-to-back perfect regular seasons. For Meyer, he’s also trying to increase the record he set last week for best start by any team with a new squad—previously held by Tommy Bowden at Auburn (20-0 from 1993-94).
Ohio State will have no issue accomplishing that feat. Especially since the team doesn’t face a single ranked opponent the rest of the way.
However, there won’t be a BCS title game berth awaiting the team.
That’s because the Buckeyes will fall to the surprisingly streaking Spartans in the Big Ten title game.
It will be another disappointing finish for the folks in Columbus. Another impressive season thrown in the trash bin with an underwhelming performance in the biggest game.
Ohio State will most likely have to settle for an at-large BCS berth.
6. Texas A&M
20 of 25
Current Record: 7-2
Current BCS Ranking: 15
Projected Record: 10-2
Projected Losses: none
The Skinny
How can you bet against quarterback Johnny Manziel?
Through nine games, the sophomore has been phenomenal, throwing for 2,867 yards, 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions on 72.5 percent passing. He’s also added 564 yards and eight scores on the ground.
If it wasn’t for a subpar defense—the Aggies rank No. 98 in total defense (443.1 YPG)—this is a team that would be very much in the BCS title discussion.
But as the season grows older, Manziel’s performances get better. Take his performance against UTEP last weekend—340 TOT YDs, 6 TDs.
With two road contests against LSU and Missouri to wrap up the season, Texas A&M will truly be tested.
However, this is one case where a good offense is better than a good defense.
5. Michigan State
21 of 25
Current Record: 8-1
Current BCS Ranking: 17
Projected Record: 11-2
Projected Losses: at Nebraska (Nov. 16)
The Skinny
Don’t look now, but the Spartans are making a charge towards relevancy.
They took their first strides last weekend, battering in-state rival Michigan 29-6. Michigan State limited the Wolverines to just 168 total yards, including minus-48 rushing yards—the fewest in school history.
But that’s been expected from the Spartans defense as of late. Nationally, the unit ranks No. 3 in scoring (11.6), No. 1 in total defense (210.2 YPG), No. 1 against the run (43.4 YPG) and No. 4 against the pass (166.8 YPG).
The team won’t strike fear into opponents' hearts with its passing attack, but running back Jeremy Langford has made up for that on the ground. The junior has rushed for over 100 yards in each of Michigan State’s last four games while accumulating six touchdowns during that span.
Although the team will suffer a setback against the Cornhuskers, the Spartans will more than make up for it by capturing a Big Ten title with a win over Ohio State.
4. Clemson
22 of 25
Current Record: 8-1
Current BCS Ranking: 7
Projected Record: 11-1
Projected Losses: none
The Skinny
After being thoroughly embarrassed by Florida State at home, 51-14, the Tigers have faded into obscurity, Tajh Boyd’s Heisman campaign is a thing of the past and the team’s BCS title hopes are non-existent.
But people seem to forget, that was one heck of a Seminoles team Clemson lost to. In fact, not too many teams could likely hang within two touchdowns of Jameis Winston and Co.
Florida State has been that good.
That being said, the Tigers have gotten back to business as usual, winning their last two rather easily. Boyd has also enjoyed some recent success, throwing for 377 yards and three touchdowns on 24-of-29 passing while adding another score on the ground.
Only a showdown with South Carolina stands in Clemson’s way of a second straight 11-win season.
3. Oregon
23 of 25
Current Record: 8-0
Current BCS Ranking: 3
Projected Record: 12-1
Projected Losses: at Stanford (Nov. 7)
The Skinny
The Ducks have looked pretty much unbeatable this season. In fact, none of the team’s eight opponents has even gotten within 21 points.
That’s pretty darn impressive.
However, that streak will come to an end this Thursday against the Cardinal. The two teams have taken turns ruining the perfect seasons of the other one in recent years.
It’s a tradition that should continue.
Although Stanford’s secondary has been vulnerable at times, the unit has seemed to correct its mistakes. In back-to-back contests, the Cardinal have held the high-powered offenses of UCLA and Oregon State to 10 and 12 points, respectively.
That doesn’t bode well for Oregon.
Regardless, a late loss by Stanford should open the door for the Ducks to sneak into the Pac 12 title game.
2. Florida State
24 of 25
Current Record: 8-0
Current BCS Ranking: 2
Projected Record: 13-0
Projected Losses: none
The Skinny
The Seminoles have proven they belong among the nation’s elite.
Most recently, the team handed out a 41-14 drubbing to previously unbeaten Miami. That was only outdone by Florida State’s 51-14 thrashing of then-No. 3 Clemson back on Oct. 19.
The team can thank strong play from both sides of the ball for its success.
Offensively, the Seminoles rank No. 3 in scoring (51.1 PPG), No. 4 in total offense (549.1 YPG), No. 9 in passing (339.4 YPG) and No. 27 in rushing (209.8 YPG). On the other hand, the team’s defense ranks No. 4 in scoring (13.1 PPG), No. 7 in total defense (287.6 YPG), No. 2 against the pass (158.5 YPG) and No. 25 against the run (129.1 YPG).
But the most impressive aspect of Florida State’s charge is the play of redshirt freshman quarterback Jameis Winston.
Thus far, he has answered every challenge thrown his way. It will be interesting to see how Winston handles the pressure of an undefeated campaign as the season draws to a close.
Other than the ACC title game, expect Winston and the Seminoles to breeze through their remaining schedule with ease.
1. Alabama
25 of 25
Current Record: 8-0
Current BCS Ranking: 1
Projected Record: 13-0
Projected Losses: none
The Skinny
To be the best, you’ve got to beat the best. And thus far, nobody has come close to doing so.
But if you thought the Crimson Tide defense was bad enough, the offense has been just as good.
Behind the play of quarterback A.J. McCarron, Alabama has scored 45 or more points in four straight games. In that same span, opponents have managed just 20 points total.
However, a weak schedule ever since the Texas A&M game has made many doubt the talent of the Tide.
A convincing win against LSU this weekend should do the trick. Throw in a road victory over Auburn in the season finale to sweeten the deal.
This is a team that can beat you down on both sides of the ball.
Head coach Nick Saban knows how to get Alabama going. And lately, the team seems to be playing its best football in quite some time.
That’s a scary thought for opponents.
Expecting anything other than a Tide berth in the BCS title game is foolish.
All stats and rankings used in this article are courtesy of NCAA.com.
.jpg?w=480 "Ohio State Team Doctor")
