Biggest Questions Facing New York Jets in Week 1 Contest with Tampa Bay Bucs

Preseason is over and starting Sept. 8, the games count. It's time to throw the New York Jets' 3-1 preseason record out the window and focus on the issues only regular-season play will resolve.

Despite their winning preseason record, the Jets never held the halftime lead until the last preseason game. In other words, when both teams' starters were most likely to be playing, the Jets came up short.

That's why we still have questions about the players we're told are keys to the team's success. It's been great to hear about the likes of Matt Simms, Ryan Spadola and Leger Douzable. However, they're not the impact players whom the Jets expect to make or break this season. That's when players like Santonio Holmes, Chris Ivory, Muhammad Wilkerson and Antonio Cromartie are supposed to stand up and shine.

It's also when we begin to get the verdict on this year's draft class. All of them made the 53-man roster, at least as of Sept. 1. Will first-rounders Dee Milliner and Sheldon Richardson make an immediate impact? Is Geno Smith the quarterback of the future? Will Brian Winters break the starting lineup? Will Oday Aboushi and William Campbell become solid backups? Is Tommy Bohanon as versatile as advertised?

We're wondering many things as Week 1 approaches. Let's look at a few in more detail.

Were Critical Weaknesses in Jets Defense Exposed in Preseason?

Rex Ryan may be a defensive genius, but the play of his defense this preseason failed to reflect that tactical brilliance in two types of situations. Hurry-up offenses and outside running plays haunted this unit.

Early in the so-called "Snoopy Bowl," New York Giants' running back David Wilson broke an 84-yard run down the left sideline for a touchdown to give the Giants an early 7-0 lead. It brought back memories of Tennessee Titans running back Chris Johnson's 94-yard effort during the 2012 Monday night game that knocked the Jets out of playoff contention. It was the Titans' first score in their 14-10 victory.

You could argue that those things happen occasionally. However, with the increased use of fast-paced offenses in the NFL, the success that both the Jacksonville Jaguars and Philadelphia Eagles had when running the no-huddle ought to raise greater concern.

Granted, Eagles quarterback Matt Barkley's 80-yard third-quarter touchdown drive occurred in a game in which most starters wore baseball caps. However, the ease with which Jacksonville's Blaine Gabbert generated 10 points against the Jets in the second preseason game was more sobering. Those scoring drives came in the first half, against the starters.

If Gabbert could move the ball with ease, what will happen when the Jets face the likes of Brady, Brees and Ryan?

The usual response to such concerns is that no team unveils all of its tricks during preseason. The Jets need a few tricks up their sleeves to bottle up outside runs and stop no-huddle or fast-paces offenses. Otherwise, 2013 could be a long season.

Is Chris Ivory for Real?

Chris Ivory's 56-yard touchdown run against the Atlanta Falcons last season the seventh-ranked play in NFL AM's Top 100 list for best plays 2012. That's the Chris Ivory that general manager John Idzik wanted when he traded the Jets' fourth-round draft pick to New Orleans.

However, so far the Jets have seen far more of Ivory on the sidelines than they have of Ivory breaking big runs.

In fact, this preseason he carried 14 times for 28 yards. His longest run was nine yards. Two backs, Kahlil Bell and Mossis Madu, who surpassed Ivory's 2.0 yards-per-carry average are no longer with the team.

Let's not panic yet. True, there's the possibility that Ivory has not fully recovered from the hamstring injury that sidelined him through much of training camp. More likely, however, is that the Jets use of Ivory during the preseason was far from optimal.

Power runners like Ivory typically save their best for a game's second half, when the opposing defense is worn down. It's especially true when that back's team is protecting a lead. That's when a ball-carrier like Ivory earns his money by becoming the backbone of the offense, accumulating yards while consuming clock.

For Ivory to be at his best requires two things: First, he must be durable enough to carry the ball at least 15 times a game. Second, the Jets must build early leads that Ivory's legs can protect.

Should the Jets have to play from behind on a weekly basis, we may never see Ivory at his best. But that wouldn't necessarily be his fault.

However, if injuries cause Ivory to spend more time on the sidelines than in the Jets backfield, fans will wish they had that fourth-round pick instead.

Has Santonio Holmes Recovered?

The state of Santonio Holmes' injured foot has kept us in suspense since at least the beginning of OTAs. We first heard he'd be ready for training camp. When training camp opened, Holmes was on the Physically Unable to Perform (PUP) list.

As training camp continued, Holmes remained on the PUP list and for the most part silent. Speculation about his availability for the 2013 season mounted. However, Holmes seems to have met that deadline. He even appeared in uniform, albeit on the sidelines, at the Jets' final preseason game.

That appearance, however, fuels the speculation about his Week 1 role. It raises the following question: Is Holmes even close to the player who before his 2012 injury was on pace for an 80-reception, 1,088-yard season?

What makes the question more intriguing is this: As the Jets' No. 1 wide receiver, Holmes would most likely match up against former teammate Darrelle Revis. Two ex-teammates who suffered season-ending injuries in successive weeks would be facing each other as rivals almost a year later. They'll both be trying to prove that their injuries have not diminished their skills.

Holmes may have to begin impressing next year's employer. He's likely to be a salary cap casualty come 2014.

Was Trading Darrelle Revis a Mistake?

Darrelle Revis' first snap of 2013 may be Week 1 against the Jets. Only then will NFL fans be able to judge the extent of his recovery from last year's torn ACL.

Revis did not play during the preseason. In his absence, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers surrendered 115 points while scoring 66. The point differential of minus-49 was the worst in the NFC, second only to Jacksonville's minus-51 in the NFL.

It would be inhuman to wish Revis anything less than a full recovery. However, it's perfectly understandable for Jets fans to hope that Revis is a little rusty when facing his old team.

How quickly we learn the state of Revis' recovery depends on who starts at quarterback for New York. If it's Geno Smith, Mornhinweg won't want to try stretching the field vertically right away. He'll have to build Smith's confidence with a short, precise passing attack that minimizes the chances of turnovers.

That means keeping the ball away from Revis.

If Mark Sanchez starts, or once Smith has established the short-passing game, it will be time to challenge Revis with a longer play. Mornhinweg could very well target Revis with Santonio Holmes, who may also be taking his first snaps after recovering from his Lisfranc foot injury. What an irony that the Jets' biggest stars of 2012, sidelined for the season within a week of each other, should face each other as opponents in Week 1.

How well the former Jets corner plays is only one side of the discussion when evaluating the Revis trade. Two other factors play into the trade's evaluation. First and foremost is the play of the Jets' No. 1 draft pick, cornerback Dee Milliner.

Comparing the rookie Milliner to the proven vet Revis would be unfair, but Jets' fans will expect better than the passive play Milliner has been accused of this preseason. He's been beaten for long gains several times.

That won't cut it. Part of what will make the Revis trade a success for the Jets is Milliner becoming as good a No. 2 corner to Antonio Cromartie as Cromartie was to Revis—that and Sheldon Richardson, whom the Jets drafted with the first-round pick they acquired from Tampa Bay in the Revis trade, will have to emerge as an impact player.

The second factor has nothing to do with Milliner's play.

Jets fans will not miss Revis' off-the-field dramas come contract time. Is he worth the money he claims? Possibly. Can his history of holdouts and public whining over money be good for team morale? Probably not.

The Jets fanbase may well regret losing Revis the player. However, losing Revis the contract headache may well bring a sigh of relief.

Who Won the Quarterback Competition?

The preseason is over and the Jets have not announced a starting quarterback. However, unless Mark Sanchez recovers from his injured shoulder more quickly than expected, that honor may fall to Geno Smith by default.

Marty Mornhinweg's challenge is to design a game plan that makes it easier for Smith to succeed and harder to repeat the mistakes he made in the preseason.

Smith threw three interceptions during his most extended appearance, a three-quarter stint against the Giants. One reason was that he tended to stare down his receivers. A second may have involved holding the ball too long.

Fortunately, Mornhinweg's offensive system offers ways to minimize these factors.

The West Coast offense's trademark of stretching the field horizontally will fit this goal. Instead of running downfield passing plays that take time to develop, Mornhinweg will most likely limit Smith to short, quick strikes. Telegraphing shorter passes is less likely to produce the disastrous results that doing so on downfield throws might (as occurred against the Giants), because shorter pass routes means Smith will make quicker throws; defensive backs won't be able to react as quickly.

That means the receivers will have to provide more of the passing yardage themselves; yards after the catch are critical in the West Coast system. Otherwise, the Jets will have to grind out yardage small chunk by small chunk, drives that the most time-consuming yet most difficult to complete. Points will be relatively few and more pressure will be put on the defense to avoid giving up big plays and points.

The requirement for a low-risk passing game means that a successful ground game is also critical. Direct snaps to running backs worked well in preseason, Mornhinweg will continue to use them. If the running game is sufficiently potent, Smith will be able to use play-action to set up longer pass plays, as Mark Sanchez did before him. Successful play action might distract the defense from following Smith's eyes until it's too late.

If Sanchez starts, the risk of turnovers is still there. However, when he wasn't throwing interceptions or fumbling snaps, Sanchez moved the offense more consistently in preseason than did Smith. Mornhinweg will still want to keep Sanchez on a short leash, but he'll have a more varied playlist.

Maybe it's best at this point to keep us and the Buccaneers guessing about the quarterback situation up until game time.

Do the Jets Have Enough Talent to Compete?

Talent or the lack thereof is the word most often associated with the 2013 New York Jets.

But the real question isn't if the Jets have talent. It's whether they have talent that has performed at an NFL-level standard. Young teams, or teams living off the discards of other teams, often labor under the perception that they are lacking in NFL-caliber talent.

Let's examine the optimist's and pessimist's point of view:

Pessimist

With the exception of Santonio Holmes, the Jets don't have a single established game-breaking threat on offense.

They lost 2012's only 1,000-yard performer, running back Shonn Greene, to free agency. At tight end they have the injury-prone Kellen Winslow Jr. being backed up by career reserves Jeff Cumberland and Konrad Reuland, neither of whom are strong blockers. Jeremy Kerley is an emerging slot receiver, but their No. 2 wideout, Stephen Hill, is better known for dropping passes than for catching them.

At quarterback, they can choose between the turnover-prone Mark Sanchez and the rookie Geno Smith.

The offensive line includes two new starting guards, the much-maligned Vladimir Ducasse and the oft-injured Willie Colon.

As for defense, cornerback Antonio Cromartie is the only returning member of last year's secondary. The linebacking corps has yet to prove it can pressure the quarterback from outside. However, the defensive line, with Muhammad Wilkerson and promising rookie Sheldon Richardson, may show some life.

Still, it looks like a rough year for the Jets, as they prepare to get a high draft pick in 2014.

Optimist

Many things must go right for the Jets to succeed this year. However, it's a young, enthusiastic team, one that has emerged from a spirited preseason with some positive signs.

For one thing, Marty Mornhinwheg's offense significantly outscored the preseason counterparts of his predecessor Tony Sparano. What's more, while the Jets might not have a 1,000-yard rusher, Chris Ivory has yet to play a full game, Bilal Powell had a great camp and Tommy Bohanon can line up as a fullback, halfback or tight end.

Speaking of tight end, Kellen Winslow Jr. got some unexpected grades from profootballfocus.com (subscription required). His preseason pass-blocking grade of 0.3 is only slightly above average, but it's an unexpected benefit that should help the wide receivers and the vertical passing game. Backup tight ends also had moments in the preseason: Jeff Cumberland caught a couple of 20-plus-yard touchdown passes and Konrad Reuland contributed to punt coverage.

As for that No. 2 wideout, Stephen Hill has been much better at holding on to the ball, he might emerge this year. Even without Holmes, the unit of Hill, Kerley, Gates and Spadola moved the ball on several possessions this preseason.

Quarterback is a concern, but Mark Sanchez can move the team when he's focused, and Geno Smith is learning.

The first-team offensive line combines established stalwarts with new blood. Veteran center Nick Mangold and tackles D'Brickashaw Ferguson and Austin Howard will provide leadership and continuity; newcomer Willie Colon (a former All-Pro tackle) and the improved Vladimir Ducasse hope to improve upon last year's models at the guard positions. Rookie guard Brian Winters should see significant playing time and perhaps become a starter.

The defense has experienced tremendous change. Yet, the defensive line will continue to be a strength, enhanced by the addition of rookie tackle Sheldon Richardson. The linebackers will boast more speed with Demario Davis joining the starters. Antwan Barnes enhances the outside pass rush as will Quinton Coples, who is expected to return to the lineup from injury early in the season.

Cornerback Antonio Cromartie anchors a revitalized secondary that introduces LaRon Landry's brother, Dawan, at one safety position opposite second-year pro Antonio Allen, whose pick-six against Philadelphia closed out the Jets' preseason scoring. At the other corner will be the Jets' first draft pick of 2013, Dee Milliner.

Kicker Nick Folk, punter Robert Malone and long snapper Tanner Purdum return to anchor the special teams.

By the end of the year, the Jets will have surprised a few people and may even make the playoffs.

Realist

Undoubtedly, the truth lies somewhere in between. The Jets will neither be as bad as some fear nor as good as others hope. That's the recipe for an interesting but ultimately mediocre year.

Follow Philip Schawillie on Twitter: @digitaltechguid.

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