Sakio Bika vs. Marco Antonio Periban: Preview and Prediction for Title Fight

On the undercard of Saturday's Paulie Malignaggi-Adrien Broner showdown in Brooklyn, undefeated Mexican super middleweight Marco Antonio Periban will face veteran contender Sakio Bika. The fight is for the vacant WBC belt.

That belt was last held by Andre Ward, who relinquished it rather than face a mandatory challenger who didn't measure up to his expectations for an opponent.  We are looking at a situation at 168 where Ward is bigger than any of the individual belts, like Mayweather at welterweight and junior middleweight.

But for the prospect, Periban, and the gatekeeper, Bika, the situation is different. An alphabet soup belt would greatly benefit the careers of both men. There's a lot at stake in this fight.

Tale of the Tape

	Sakio Bika	Marco Antonio Periban
Record	31-5-2, 21 KO's	20-0, 13 KO's
Age	34	28
Height	5'11.5"	6'2.5"
Reach	71"	78"
Weight	168 pounds	168 pounds
Stance	Orthodox	Orthodox
Hometown	Sydney, Australia	Mexico City, Mexico
Rounds:	214	82

Marco Antonio Periban has decent length and reach for a heavyweight. For the super middleweight division, his reach is ridiculous. And he has the technical ability to exploit it.

Bika is the far more experienced fighter, both in ring time and in quality of opposition. At 34, he's been a professional for 13 years and has faced some of the top fighters of his generation. In his entire undefeated run, Periban has yet to face an opponent close to Bika's level.

Main Storylines

This is a classic fight between a rising prospect and a well-established gatekeeper. Bika has been among the top super middleweights in the world for seven years, but he has been handled decisively by the division's elite.

Periban has a strong amateur background and has been highly impressive at times, but against competition that was mediocre at best. He's 20-0 and promoted by Golden Boy, so he should find himself in big-money fights down the road as long as he can keep winning.

But to get to the really big fish at 168 and 175, Periban is going to have to be able to hook opponents like Bika first.

The Cameroon native and Australian citizen represents a huge step up in competition for Periban, but it is a necessary step if he wants to have major success at 168.

A win for Bika means a first world title after campaigning for over a dozen years and failing in three previous attempts. There will be more big fights waiting for him if he can capture a belt.   

Strengths

Sakio Bika

Bika is an athletic, strong fighter who puts together his combinations very well. He works in an awkward, erratic rhythm that even Andre Ward had a certain amount of trouble with.

Bika is a very busy fighter, and even when he is getting hit or backed up, he's usually returning fire, looking to regain the offensive initiative.

Bika has been in the ring with both Andre Ward and Joe Calzaghe, the two top super middleweights of the past decade. He lost decisively to both men, but he's been tested by a level of competition light years beyond anything Periban has faced.

Marco Antonio Periban

Periban had a nice amateur career, so his boxing skills are well developed. He has tremendous reach for a super middleweight and the technical ability to exploit that physical advantage.

He has a very good jab, which functions as a scoring weapon but even better as a setup for his dangerous right hand, which has knockout power. Periban does a great job of using his movement and length to keep opponents on the outside, then timing them with power shots as they come forward.

Weaknesses

Sakio Bika

His aggression is his strength, but it has cost him, too. He's been involved in multiple head clashes, including one that led to him falling short with a technical draw in his first championship bid against Markus Beyer in 2006. Bika lost a fight by DQ against Jean-Paul Mendy in 2010 for hitting Mendy while he was down.

Bika's all-offense approach makes him pretty easy to hit. He's durable, and his awkward style makes hims difficult to time. But lunging and exploding forward all night against a skilled fighter with a 7" reach advantage is a risky proposition.

Marco Antonio Periban

When he is on the offensive, he has shown a tendency to get sloppy with his footwork and squared in his stance. His chin lifts dangerously high as he wades forward, looking to unload.

Against Geraldo Diaz, he walked right into a punch that knocked him on his butt. He recovered quickly and stopped Diaz in the next round, but it showed that he has vulnerabilities. He's very likely improved since that fight, but Bika is a much tougher opponent than Diaz.

While Periban has been knocked down, he's never been taken to the deep waters. He's likely to get dragged there by Bika, a fighter who has swum with the sharks time and again.

Sakio Bika Will Win If...

Sakio Bika will win this fight if he can force the action into the trenches at close range. He'll need to double up the jab and use head movement or level changes to get inside Periban's long reach, then look to attack aggressively to the body, before shifting upstairs.

Bika needs to do what he has always done: be a relentless, aggressive fighter. The longer he spends at the end of Periban's jab, the longer he's in danger of getting clubbed with the big right. He needs to cut off the ring and get in Periban's face in a hurry.

The more compact fighter always faces a more pronounced strategic battle. The longer fighter needs merely to maintain the distance of the battle; the shorter fighter must change the distance.

If Bika refuses to stay stuck on the outside and can avoid getting caught moving through the middle distance, he should be able to rough up the far less experienced Periban on the inside. He needs to press the action and rattle the younger fighter's confidence, making it tougher for him to think straight and make good decisions.

Marco Antonio Periban Will Win If...

Marco Antonio Periban will win this fight if he can establish his jab and keep Bika at the very end of his punches. If Periban can keep this fight primarily at long range, Bika is going to have a very difficult time even scoring on him.

Periban should try to set up the overhand right with his jab, but he should also look for Bika to lunge into the perfect position for a well-timed uppercut. Periban is very good at varying the speed of his jab, which should help him disrupt Bika's movement and make it easier to sneak in his own big punches.

Periban needs to mix in lateral movement to keep Bika continually turning and resetting. Bika has a tendency to fight off from his back foot, so if Periban can drive him backwards behind the jab, he will put Bika off-balance and make him very vulnerable to the overhand right.  

Prediction

Even if I were a serious gambler, I'd be loathe to touch this one. I've seen plenty of Bika in the past few years and looked up everything I could find of Periban putting together this preview. But the difference in the quality of competition that I've seen them against makes it difficult to draw any strong conclusions.

I think that Bika is an exciting but flawed fighter. Periban has the perfect physical tools to exploit those flaws—and enough boxing craft to employ them. I think he will work patiently and avoid sloppiness.

But what I won't know until Saturday is whether or not Periban can truly hang with a rough, veteran brawler like Bika. That Periban has certain physical and athletic abilities is obvious. Whether or not he has the blood and guts for a hotly contested championship fight is something he hasn't had the chance to show yet.

I'm going with a hunch that Periban has the talent to step up successfully here. His career has developed steadily after a nice amateur run, so I think he'll have the mental strength built up to face a tougher fight than he's faced before.

I also think Golden Boy has matched Periban up on this high-profile card for a reason. I expect Bika to push him hard but ultimately allow him the opportunity to look good.

Periban by decision, 115-113.