Are Houston Rockets Putting Eggs In Wrong Basket With Dwight Howard Pursuit?

The NBA's current collective bargaining agreement is designed to make a nonpartisan league more equitable. Teams that could once afford to burn money in a bidding war are now in no position to do so (except the Brooklyn Nets) thanks to a ruthless luxury tax that punishes big and small spenders alike.

Since put into effect, the agreement has forced (smart) general managers to recalibrate how they should allocate cap space, and when, if ever, it's appropriate to pay a player more than the market says he's worth.

It's now a league of certainty, in that being certain with who should and should not receive a guaranteed, multi-year contract is more important than ever.

This brings us to Dwight Howard. At one point the NBA's most destructive big man, he's now best known as a divisive cartoon character. Despite playing in 76 games and averaging 36 minutes per contest, Howard failed to be named to the All-NBA First-Team for the first time since 2007.

Back surgery before last season wasn't a bad choice, but playing the entire 2012-13 season at less than 100 percent probably was. Injuries are something an audience isn't privy to fully understanding. (Only Howard knows how much pain shot through his body each time he slid across the lane to block a shot.) And that makes giving him a four or five-year contract worrysome. Howard didn't look like his Orlando self at all in Los Angeles. Who's to say he ever does again?

The Houston Rockets are one of a handful of organizations in position to afford Howard's services next season. If they land him, is it the right move? Let's look at what we know. 

Howard led the league in rebounding last season but with his lowest per-game average since 2007. His team was swept from the playoffs in the first round. During a 16-point loss against the Sacramento Kings in late November, he scored seven points in just under 41 minutes. It was embarrassing. How did he bounce back?

Well, during his next game two days later against the Memphis Grizzlies, Howard gritted his teeth, clenched his fists and sprinted onto the court with a focused ferociousness rarely seen in regular-season basketball. Then he scored seven points in 39 minutes—picking up more fouls (five) than total rebounds (four)— and the Lakers lost by eight.

Howard had 48 doubles-doubles in 76 games last season. He scored more than 30 points on just three occasions and failed to record even one assist in 20 games.

(Howard didn't touch the ball as much last season as has been the norm in his career, but the Lakers didn't treat him like Joel Anthony either. It's mind-boggling for a player who touches the ball that much to be so inept at passing it.)

He grabbed 20 or more rebounds four times, which is obviously an incredible achievement. But then you look at his colleagues and see that Nikola Vucevic—Howard's 22-year-old replacement with the Magic—did the same thing; Reggie Evans did it nine times.

This isn't to say opposing coaches design entire game plans to thwart Evans or Vucevic like they do for Howard, but the numbers don't exactly help build his case as a dominant player on the boards anymore. During his career with Orlando, Howard had 58 games with 20 or more rebounds, the most in the league by a wide margin.

Howard didn't make an NBA All-Defensive Team this season for the first time since 2008. Here are a couple plays that highlight why.

First we have Howard defending a high pick-and-roll from Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. He spent much of the season sagging back into the paint on plays like this, surrendering mid-range jumpers from guards who could easily blow by him if he pops out to high. 

After getting all the way to the elbow, Parker drops a bounce pass back to Duncan. Howard is completely out of position, too low on the court to recover back out and contest the mid-range jumper. To cover the patch, Lakers forward Earl Clark rotates off his man, Kawhi Leonard, to prevent an open shot by Duncan. This, of course, leaves Leonard wide open for a corner 3-pointer, which he sinks. 

Watch Howard throughout the play. Not only is he out of position, but there's no effort to recover, either on Duncan or Leonard. Sometimes critiquing one play isn't fair, but Howard's faults in situations like this happened on a regular basis all season long.

Here he is doing the same thing against Memphis. Instead of defending the pick-and-roll, Howard appears to be in a one-man zone, camping out near the elbow, stifling the penetration, but leaving his man, Marc Gasol, wide open for a jumper.

Will Howard bounce back next season, and in the subsequent three seasons after that, and prove he's the undisputed best center in basketball? Nobody knows. The Rockets are more than willing to find out, but they already have a starting center (Omer Asik) who's as weighty a defensive anchor as any in the league—making less than half as much money as Howard is set to see next season.

Should they look to spend their cap space elsewhere (Chris Paul doesn't sound like a shabby idea), Or spend this summer casually window shopping the likes of Josh Smith and Paul Millsap? Or should they roll it over until 2014, when they'd be in a healthy position to throw their sales pitch at a number of franchise-altering free agents, including LeBron James?

It wouldn't be the worst thing in the world if Howard chose Houston, then dedicated himself full time to improving debilitating flaws (such as footwork in the post, free-throw shooting, etc.) and refining the traits that as recently as two years ago made him peerless on the defensive end.

After all, he's only 27 years old.

Pairing Howard with James Harden would be a diabolical machine teetering on the verge of title contention. But the question marks are very real, and the answers won't come until long after nearly $100 million worth of Houston's well crafted cap space is guaranteed for Howard's bank account.

Is Houston barking up the wrong tree? Nobody knows, and that's exactly how the new CBA wants it.