NBA Mock Draft 2013: Winning Selections for Every First-Round Team
No team goes into the NBA draft without a plan to come away with the best talent available to give it a better chance of winning in the future.
Yet every team, at one point or another, has made a big mistake in the first round. Some teams have been guilty of that offense more than others, but the fact remains: No franchise wants to make a mistake in the selection process.
But “mistake” is also a relative term. It sometimes takes years to accurately gauge the talent of an NBA prospect, especially one that is left to find a new team when his rookie contract expires. As is often the case, coaching and schematic fit play as much of a role in making smart selections as talent and potential.
With those factors in mind, we’ll take a look at projections for the 2013 NBA draft, highlighting some players with tons of potential and no guarantee of finding NBA success.
1. Cleveland Cavaliers: Nerlens Noel, C, Kentucky
The first pick in the draft isn’t typically a high-risk selection, but that may have to be the case this year with the class’s best player recovering from a devastating injury that derailed his 2012 season.
Kentucky center Nerlens Noel is as physically gifted as any player in the 2013 draft class, but apart from his knee injury, there are also concerns about his thin frame and lack of physicality in the paint—two issues that could make his transition to the NBA a bit of a process.
Still, Noel is a tremendous shot-blocker with exceptional athleticism, and it will be hard for the Cavs to pass on him at No. 1 if they decide to keep the selection. There’s always the possibility Cleveland trades out of the first pick to add another selection and maximize its value, but there may not be a team willing to make a deal.
2. Orlando Magic: Ben McLemore, SG, Kansas
No prospect is without flaws, and Ben McLemore is no exception.
The Kansas guard was the best shooter in college basketball last season and his size and long-range jump shot translate well to the shooting guard position at the next level, but he’s not yet a complete player.
McLemore needs to work on creating his own scoring looks and taking advantage of what defenses give him. He’ll knock down a three from anywhere on the floor, but he needs to get better at attacking the rim and establishing more consistency in his offensive game.
3. Washington Wizards: Otto Porter, SF, Georgetown
Despite the immense talent of Noel and McLemore, Otto Porter may be the safest top-tier prospect in this class.
With a versatile skill set and ideal size for the small forward position, he’ll easily find a fit with nearly any team willing to use its early selection on him. He doesn’t stand out in one particular area, but you’ll be hard-pressed to find a more complete player in this draft.
4. Charlotte Bobcats: Anthony Bennett, F, UNLV
Simply put, UNLV’s Anthony Bennett is a fun player.
He doesn’t have a set position entering the NBA, but he would be a matchup nightmare for many defenses at the next level. With athleticism unmatched by many power forwards and the size to overpower many of the league’s small forwards, he’ll give Charlotte plenty of versatility to build around.
5. Phoenix Suns: Victor Oladipo, SG, Indiana
Phoenix’s three-point shooting was among the worst in the league last season, and without a big man worthy of a selection here, the Suns can opt for a player who will fix their issues behind the arc.
Victor Oladipo isn’t just a shooter. He also plays exceptional defense and displayed some offensive versatility at Indiana. He can go a long way toward bolstering an offense that needs talent first and foremost.
6. New Orleans Pelicans: Trey Burke, PG, Michigan
Trey Burke is the kind of do-it-all point guard teams covet in the early portion of the lottery. He’s not the biggest guard (6’0”), but the Michigan product is a tremendous shooter who showed last season that he can be as good a facilitator as he can be a clutch long-range shooter.
7. Sacramento Kings: Shabazz Muhammad, SF, UCLA
Shabazz Muhammad didn’t have the season many expected him to produce during his freshman campaign. Despite immense potential and first-pick expectations, he now looks like a mid-lottery selection and a big NBA project.
Still, Muhammad is a fantastic catch-and-shoot forward who rebounds well and possesses an extremely high motor. If he can hone his defensive skills and learn to create his own shot, the UCLA product has the potential to be a top-10 small forward in the NBA.
8. Detroit Pistons: C.J. McCollum, PG/SG, Lehigh
Detroit won’t enter this draft looking for a shoot-first combo guard, but it might have to settle for one if Burke and Muhammad are already off the board.
The Pistons have some talent in place, but they desperately need a couple perimeter scorers to pair with Brandon Knight. Without better options still available, Lehigh’s C.J. McCollum might be their best option.
9. Minnesota Timberwolves: Cody Zeller, C, Indiana
Sometimes not having good luck is extremely unlucky.
Minnesota can never seem to stumble on enough good fortune to land a lottery selection that will put it over the top, and this year is no exception. The Timberwolves need a perimeter scorer and three-point shooter, but they won’t find it here.
Unless they package both first-round picks to move up into the top six, it’s hard to imagine the Timberwolves finding the player they need, instead settling on one of the draft’s best big men to add to an already crowded frontcourt.
10. Portland Trail Blazers: Alex Len, C, Maryland
Opinions vary greatly on Alex Len’s NBA potential. Some believe he’ll be an average NBA big man due to his lack of exemplifying traits, while others believe he has the pro-ready skill set to contribute immediately at the next level.
I tend to agree with the latter contingent.
The Maryland product isn’t overly impressive at the offensive end, but apart from Noel, there probably isn’t a better defensive big man in this draft. He’s a shot-blocker and hard worker with the chops to be an immediate starter in the NBA.
11. Philadelphia 76ers: Kelly Olynyk, C, Gonzaga
If Andrew Bynum is left to walk in free agency, Philadelphia will have to be prepared for the 2013 season without the possibility of fielding an all-star talent at the center position.
The draft comes before free agency, though, and the 76ers can’t wait to put in place a contingency plan. If Olynyk is still on the board, they’ll have to give him serious consideration with the 11th pick.
12. Oklahoma City Thunder: Gorgui Dieng, C, Louisville
While the Thunder have as much talent as nearly any team in the league, they still need to add some depth and find another solid frontcourt defender. The Kendrick Perkins experiment has failed to yield positive results, and Louisville’s Gorgui Dieng could help ease the sting of a move that didn’t quite pan out as expected.
13. Dallas Mavericks: Jamaal Franklin, SG, San Diego State
Jamaal Franklin needs to develop a more consistent jump shot, but he’s a terrific slasher with good size and defensive prowess, and he’ll be able to step in immediately to shore up a backcourt in desperate need of some fresh faces.
14. Utah Jazz: Dennis Schroeder, PG, Germany
There’s always at least one foreign prospect who picks up steam heading into the draft. Germany’s Denis Schroeder is that prospect this year.
The 6’3” point guard is among the most athletic guards in this class, and he matches that athleticism with tremendous quickness and ball-handling skills. He probably won’t be drop 20-plus points per game in his early NBA years, but he’s ready to be a producer.
15. Milwaukee Bucks: Michael Carter-Williams, PG, Syracuse
Monta Ellis has an early-termination clause in his contract for next year and Brandon Jennings has a qualifying offer. If Milwaukee can’t hold onto one (or either) of them, next season could be extremely ugly.
Even if Ellis or Jennings re-up with the Bucks, they’re still without a true facilitator. That’s exactly what Michael Carter-Williams brings to the table, and he’ll be a good fit in Milwaukee with or without Jennings and Ellis.
16. Boston Celtics: Steven Adams, C, Pittsburgh
Boston faces some big questions this offseason, starting with what it plans to do with Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett.
Neither will be easily replaced, but if Garnett doesn’t return in 2013, his spot on the floor will be easier to replace than that of Pierce, especially at this point in the first round.
Pittsburgh’s Steven Adams can fill Garnett’s stretch-5 role, however. He’s a much better shooter than he’s given credit for, and he’ll give the Celtics a piece they can build around going forward.
17. Atlanta Hawks: Mason Plumlee, PF/C, Duke
If the Hawks have plans for pursuing this year’s top free agents, they’ll likely look to parlay their two first-round selections into a higher draft pick to have as insurance.
With two mid-round selections, Atlanta may opt to do just that in trading into the top 10 for a player like Shabazz Muhammad or Trey Burke, though that scenario does present a lot of speculation.
Should Danny Ferry opt to stay put in the first round, expect him to take advantage of value in selecting the two available players with the biggest upside. Mason Plumlee fits the bill.
18. Atlanta Hawks (via Houston): Archie Goodwin, SG, Kentucky
Like many recent one-and-done Kentucky prospects, Archie Goodwin didn’t meet expectations during his freshman campaign, but he’ll likely be selected somewhere in the middle of the first round anyway.
That’s not to say he doesn’t have lot of potential, though.
Goodwin needs more time to develop some consistency at the offensive end, but his ceiling is much higher than many of the guards still available at No. 18.
19. Cleveland Cavaliers (via Los Angeles Lakers): Rudy Gobert, C, France
Yes, the Cavs already selected Noel. And yes, their current frontcourt already consists of Tyler Zeller, Anderson Varejao and Tristan Thompson.
But Varejao is often injured and Noel will likely miss a portion of the 2013 season as he recovers from his knee injury. Additionally, Noel is the only player in that group that can be considered an above-average defender.
At 7’2”, Rudy Gobert brings length and solid defensive skills the Cavs don’t currently possess at the center position. Without a small forward worthy of a selection here, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see Cleveland double up on centers in the first round.
20. Chicago Bulls: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, SG, Georgia
Chicago needs to add backcourt depth more than anything else this offseason. Derrick Rose will be back next year, but the Bulls can’t afford to enter another season with a marginal backcourt rotation behind him.
21. Utah Jazz: Tim Hardaway Jr., SG, Michigan
Even with Schroeder already locked up, Utah probably wouldn’t shy away from adding another guard with this pick. The Jazz’s backcourt is largely forgettable, and they need to add some fresh talent with big upside.
Tim Hardaway Jr. was overshadowed by Trey Burke last season, but he has the length (6’6”) and quickly developing long-range jumper to be a terrific NBA guard. If he’s available at No. 21, he’ll likely be near the top of Utah’s draft board.
22. Brooklyn Nets: Shane Larkin, PG, Miami
Miami point guard Shane Larkin has the athleticism and leadership abilities to be a productive NBA facilitator, but his height (5’11”) and lack of above-average defensive skill will likely force him to slide down the board on draft day.
Brooklyn could certainly do a lot worse with the 22nd pick, though, and he’ll be a nice complement to an already talented backcourt that could still use a little depth.
23. Indiana Pacers: Tony Mitchell, PF, North Texas
The Pacers can afford to gamble on upside this late in the first round. While Tony Mitchell wasn’t especially productive at North Texas last season, he does have tremendous athleticism for the forward positions and enough upside to warrant a selection in the early 20's.
24. New York Knicks: Dario Saric, F, Croatia
Dario Saric’s draft stock is completely up in the air. Some see him as a late-lottery talent while others feel his lack of defensive skills and overall polish will force him into the final third of the first round.
While neither contingent is wrong, a case could be made for selecting him anywhere past the 10th pick given his exceptional size and athleticism—and his ability to score from nearly anywhere on the floor.
If Saric is still available at No. 24, the Knicks almost have to pull the trigger. They don’t have any glaring positional needs, but they could certainly use another high-upside perimeter scorer for the future.
25. Los Angeles Clippers: Tony Snell, SG, New Mexico
New Mexico’s Tony Snell has all the physical tools to be a solid NBA shooting guard, but he’s still extremely raw and needs some time to develop behind a group of seasoned veterans.
There isn’t a better veteran guard to learn from than Chris Paul.
There’s no guarantee CP3 will stick around this offseason, but Los Angeles probably won’t base its draft selections on that particular scenario.
26. Minnesota Timberwolves (via Memphis): Deshaun Thomas, SF, Ohio State
Provided the Timberwolves don’t package this pick to trade up in the first round, they’ll probably be looking for a wing who can take advantage of Ricky Rubio’s tremendous passing ability. There aren’t many options at this point in the round, but Deshaun Thomas wouldn’t be a bad pick considering the big value in acquiring him at No. 25.
27. Denver Nuggets: Giannis Adetokoubo, SF, Greece
With Danilo Gallinari likely to miss part of the 2013 season, Denver may opt for a player who can replace some of his production with this pick. Free agency will be the more likely medium for that search, but there isn’t a player the Nuggets absolutely have to take this late in the first.
28. San Antonio Spurs: Jeff Withey, C, Kansas
Jeff Withey is the definition of a project. His offensive game isn’t all that promising, but he’s a terrific shot-blocker who won’t need to put in a lot of minutes in his formative years.
Behind Tim Duncan, the Kansas product can take some time to develop and hone his offensive skills, potentially seeing a larger role when the Big Fundamental rides off into the sunset.
29. Oklahoma City Thunder: Sergey Karasev, SG/SF, Russia
Oklahoma City was able to address its frontcourt needs with the No. 12 selection. With the 29th pick, it can now add another wing with the size and athleticism to add some desperately needed depth to its offensive attack.
30. Phoenix Suns (via Miami): C.J. Leslie, PF, N.C. State
With a perimeter scorer already locked up with their first selection, the Suns can look to add a gritty, physical defender who can contribute some minutes early in his career. C.J. Leslie isn’t a flashy pick here, but he is the type of player who can have an immediate impact in Phoenix’s frontcourt. Not bad for the last pick in the first round.
