Comparing Miami Heat's 16-Game Win Streak to Clippers' 17-Gamer, by the Numbers
With LeBron James and the Miami Heat just one game away from matching the Los Angeles Clippers' NBA-best, 17-game winning streak, it's worth breaking down the numbers behind both impressive runs.
Unlike many forced NBA comparisons, this one makes sense. We're dealing with two teams in the same season who played many of the same opponents. So there's a legitimate basis for a side-by-side appraisal here. In other words, this won't be nearly as fruitless and arbitrary as trying to measure players or teams from different eras always feels.
Numbers, prepare to be crunched!
Overall Team Performance
Obviously, we're dealing with undefeated streaks here, so there won't be any comparison of win-loss records. But what can help set the table for further analysis is a look at how well both the Clippers and Heat have played on both ends during their respective strings of victories.
On offense, the Clippers' 17-gamer from Nov. 28 to Dec. 30 was marked by an offensive rating of 111. That means the team scored 111 points per 100 possessions in their 17 straight wins. On D, the Clippers held opponents to just 95.2 points per 100 possessions.
Miami, on the other hand, has been scoring a little bit more efficiently, but has also allowed opponents to put up larger totals. The Heat have logged an offensive efficiency rating of 113.7 against a defensive rating of 100.2.
Overall, those numbers work out to show that the Clippers amassed a per-game efficiency differential of plus-15.8. Miami's figure is slightly behind that at plus-13.5.
Now, it's important to note that these stats are all adjusted for pace. It's a good way to normalize the difference between how many possessions each team used per game and during the streak overall. For what it's worth, the Clippers used 94.18 possessions during their run, while the Heat have played a bit more slowly, using 92.95 possessions per game.
You can pretty easily see the larger margins of victory in L.A.'s streak, which features a handful of 30-point wins.
Those results differ from Miami's more modest string of wins, partly because of pace and partly because of a reason we'll discuss in depth momentarily.
Based on the Heat's slightly higher offensive efficiency, it shouldn't surprise you to learn that their shooting has been markedly better than the Clippers' was during their streak.
Miami has shot 51 percent from the field, 39 percent from three-point land and 78 percent from the foul line. The Clippers shot the ball well, too—just not as well as the Heat. L.A. posted a field-goal percentage of 48.5, shot 34.6 percent from long range and hit 69.7 percent of its free throws.
There are a whole lot of numbers there, so if any of them are at all confusing, here's the summation: The Miami Heat have been obscenely good on offense during their 16-game charge—significantly better than the Clippers were when they won 17 in a row earlier this season.
The other takeaway is that the Clippers did a better job of defending, but that fact needs some secondary explanation.
Schedule Strength
Here's where the Heat's inferior point differential, and their less impressive defensive numbers make more sense.
Viewing these streaks broadly, it's clear that Miami's schedule has been tougher than the Clippers' was. The Heat's overall opponent winning percentage has been .478, which is significantly higher than the Clippers' .429.
In addition to the overarching numbers, Miami has already defeated eight teams in playoff position during its winning streak, whereas the Clippers only knocked off seven in their run.
In short, the Clippers won their games in a more consistently convincing fashion, but that's mostly because they faced weaker talent.
Other Factors to Consider
Home-road splits are usually helpful in analyzing winning streaks, but the comparison yields a draw in this case.
The Clippers played 10 of their 17 games at home during their winter blitz, while Miami has logged nine of its 16 contests at home during its spring run. So, no clear advantage here.
But the spacing of the two teams' respective schedules does reveal a noteworthy difference. Miami has played four separate back-to-back sets, while the Clippers played on consecutive nights just three times. That makes the Heat's streak seem slightly more impressive, especially when viewed in tandem with their tougher pool of opponents.
However, Miami got to take a long rest during the middle of their run, thanks to the All-Star Break in mid-February.
Finally, both teams had their share of close calls during their streaks.
Miami flat-out stole its 16th win against the Orlando Magic on March 6, aided by a bevy of favorable calls down the stretch and a last-second winner by James (on which he clearly traveled). In addition to that nail-biter, the Heat needed double overtime to defeat the Sacramento Kings on Feb. 26.
Similarly, L.A. logged a narrow one-point victory over the Utah Jazz (one of three wins against Utah during the Clips' streak) on Dec. 3. Then, on Dec. 11 and 12, the Clippers escaped the Chicago Bulls and Charlotte Bobcats with a pair of single-digit victories.
Final Judgment
Even though the Clippers appeared more dominant during the parade of wins that spanned all of the month of December, it's too hard to ignore the fact that the Heat have had to play much tougher competition during their run.
We'll give the slight edge to Miami, based mostly on their tougher schedule and remarkable offensive numbers. Don't feel bad, though, Clippers fans; the Charlotte Bobcats don't even have 17 wins on the season. So there are much worse things than coming in second to the Heat in a win-streak comparison.
*All stats courtesy of NBA.com and ESPN.com unless otherwise indicated.





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