Each Miami Heat Player's Odds of Improving or Regressing in 2012-13

As a whole, the 2012-13 Miami Heat figure to be better than last year's title winning team. But individually, which Heat players will be better and which will be worse than they were in the 2011-12 season?

After a less than stellar 2012 postseason, some have written off Dwyane Wade as an elite player this year. Are they right?

How about the Heat's top free agent signing, Ray Allen? Are his skills declining?  He played outstanding in the season opener, but he's also 37 and his surgically repaired ankle still hasn't completely healed.

Let's take a deeper look at Wade, Allen, and the rest of the Heat players, examine what they did last season, and project if they'll improve or regress in 2012-13.

The Small-Role Players

Joel Anthony: Regression (Production Drop-off)

With the Heat committing to small-ball, Anthony's minutes and production will take a nosedive.

Josh Harrellson: Improvement

Harrellson can rebound and shoot the long ball. He's only in his second year, so expect natural progression.

Terel Harris: Slight Improvement

Harris didn't play great last season, but his athleticism gives him some potential. Plus, he played well (for him) in the preseason.

James Jones: Regression (Production Drop-off)

Jones is a capable three-point shooter (40.4 percent last season), but the 2012-13 Heat have plenty of shooters, so he's not likely to get much playing time at all.

Dexter Pittman: Slight Improvement

A motivated Pittman spent the offseason getting in better shape. So, whenever he's able to get into a game, expect him to be somewhat better than he was last year. 

Mike Miller

Efficiency Improvement With Production Drop-off

Mike Miller dealt with significant back issues this past season, but he enters this one feeling healthier than he's ever in a Heat uniform. 

That's good news for the Heat because Miller is a significant threat from behind the arc. I mean, he shot 45.3 percent on threes last season and put together that incredible performance in Game 5 of the Finals while he wasn't healthy, so there's potential for a very good season from him.

But with Lewis and Allen in the fold, there might not be a ton of minutes for him this season (he only played seven minutes in the opener). Having less playing time is probably best for him and the team, as it would be great if he were able to stay fresh and healthy throughout the 2012-13 season and into the postseason, but it obviously negatively affects his production in the regular season. 

Still, just from finally being healthy, Miller should have his most efficient season as a member of the Heat. 

Udonis Haslem

Similar Performance

Udonis Haslem enters this season after one in which he once again rebounded the ball very well (7.3 per game). But unlike in years past, he did not shoot the ball well at all.

From 10-15 feet, a range from which the Heat needed him to convert from, he converted only 25.9 percent of his attempts and shot only 42.3 percent from the field overall (49.4 career shooting percentage).

Given his track record and his improved shot in the 2012 playoffs (45.5 percent), I expect his shooting to be better this season than last. 

But other than an improvement in shooting, Haslem will likely perform similarly to how he did last year with a high number of rebounds in limited minutes (14.2 per 48 minutes last season).  

Norris Cole

Improvement

Norris Cole had a very up and down rookie year.  

He had some incredible games, such as his 20-point performance against the Celtics in his second career game; however, throughout the season, he had problems with turnovers (1.6 per game) and shooting (39.3 percent from the field, 27.6 percent on three-pointers). 

But, after spending the summer working on his shot, Cole was terrific from the outside in the preseason, converting nine of his 11 attempts from downtown. But his preseason results weren't all positive, as Cole finished it with more turnovers than he did assists. 

Entering his second season, Cole is more experienced, more comfortable with his teammates and the Heat's system than he was last season, so expect an overall improvement from 2011-12.  Still, he does need to be more careful with the ball if he is to take the next step.

Shane Battier

Improvement

Shane Batter's situation is particularly interesting.

He's 34-years-old and is coming off the worst season of his NBA career, in which he averaged 4.8 points on 38.7 percent shooting (career low) and 33.9 percent shooting on three-pointers. 

At the same time, he also put forth an incredible performance in the NBA Finals in which he averaged 11.6 points on 61.3 percent shooting from the field and 57.7 percent shooting on three-pointers. On top of that, he also converted 15 of his 30 attempts from downtown in the preseason, and knocked two of his three attempts in the opener. 

Battier seems to be really enjoying the increased room he's receiving due to the Heat's small-ball and looks primed to continue having the success he's had lately. 

Expect Battier to produce slightly more points and have much better shooting percentages than he did in 2011-12.

Rashard Lewis

Improvement

Like Battier, Rashard Lewis is coming off a rough season, except his was even more disastrous. 

With the Washington Wizards, he contributed little on the defensive end and averaged only 7.8 points on 38.5 percent shooting from the field and an absolutely dreadful 23.9 percent from three-point land. 

Considering those statistics and his age (33), it's fair to wonder if his days of being a productive NBA player are over. 

Still, there's reason to believe Lewis will bounce back, to a degree, this season.

Lewis should be (and is) motivated now that he's on a title contender. Plus, with all the threats on this Heat team, he won't receive nearly the attention from defenses he's received in the past.  

I expect to see Lewis put forth more effort on the defensive end this season and post better point totals and shooting percentages than he did last season, despite him certainly receiving less minutes per game than he did last season (26 in 2011-12).

Mario Chalmers

Regression

Mario Chalmers had a great 2011-12 campaign, setting career highs in shooting percentage (44.8 percent) and three-point field goal percentage (38.8 percentage). 

But are those percentages repeatable?

History doesn't say so. Chalmers didn't even top 40 percent from the field in the year prior and in 2009-10, he only shot 40.1 percent from the field and 31.8 percent on three-pointers. 

Still, players improve when they're young and Chalmers clearly has over the past couple seasons. Plus he too will benefit in terms of getting open looks from the Heat playing small-ball.

I expect to see a little bit of a regression in terms of his percentages with the similar low assist totals (3.5 per game last season) and high turnover rate (2.2 per game).

Ray Allen

Slight Improvement

Ray Allen joins the Heat after averaging 14.2 points per game on a career-high 45.3 percent from three-point land in 2011-12 for the Boston Celtics. 

At age 37, Allen won't see the 34 minutes per game he did last season. Considering that, and the fact that the Heat have plenty of other scorers, don't expect him to match the 14.2 points per game either. 

However, the sky really is the limit on Allen's three-point shooting percentage. With the Celtics, Allen often shot his three-pointers coming off screens. But with the Heat, thanks to the small-ball approach, Allen should see more wide-open threes than ever before. And check this stat out: Allen shoots 57 percent on his corner threes, which is the best for any player from any spot in the NBA. 

The only thing that will slow down Allen this year is his not 100 percent healed surgically repaired ankle. But as long as Allen is able to stay on the court, expect an absurdly efficient year from him.

Chris Bosh

Slight Improvement

Once he became the Heat's center in last year's postseason, Chris Bosh played incredible and deserves much credit for the team's championship.

In the Finals he averaged 14.6 points and 9.4 rebounds. The rebounds were especially impressive, considering he only hauled in 7.9 per game for the regular season. 

Bosh will have his hands full defensively this year, as he will often have to defend centers who have a significant size advantage, so the increased energy he will have to put forth on that end of the floor will likely negatively impact his offensive production. 

But Bosh will still be the efficient, near 50 percent shooter he's been throughout his entire career, and will easily grab more rebounds per game than he's ever done in a Heat uniform (8.3 RPG in 2010-11).

Dwyane Wade

Slight Improvement

There's justified reason to worry about Dwyane Wade's prospects this season due to his knees and injury history; but, I expect another elite season out of the two-time NBA champion. 

In 2011-12, Wade averaged 22.1 points on 49.7 shooting, with 4.8 rebounds, 4.6 assists, 1.3 blocks and 1.7 steals. On top of that, his 26.37 PER ranked third in the NBA.

Wade showed in the preseason that his knees were a non-issue and proved it once again, even more emphatically, in the regular season opener against the Boston Celtics, in which he dropped 29 points.

With all the talk about Wade no longer being elite, he has something to prove this season. Plus, with Ray Allen in the fold, Wade should be able to stay fresh during games and be at his most efficient when on the court. 

Wade has the talent and weapons around him; I expect to see an increase in his scoring and assist output this season, with another top-five player efficiency ranking. 

LeBron James

Improvement

LeBron James has already been the basketball player in the world for the past few years, so it should be terrifying to the rest of the NBA that he's only getting better.

At 27, James is entering his prime, and fresh off one of the best postseason performances in NBA history, in which he averaged 30.3 points, 9.7 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 1.9 steals.

James did much of his offensive damage after Erik Spoelstra decided to play small-ball and put him at the 4, which the Heat will do throughout this season. 

James is simply a matchup nightmare down low, with the ability to easily create a scoring opportunity for himself or an open Heat teammate.  

LeBron can do it all in every facet of the game and now playing without the scrutiny he used to receive from the media and fans about having no championships, expect him to play freer than ever before. 

I expect LeBron to post better per game averages in points, assists, rebounds than he did last year, and considering those averages were 27.1, 6.2 and 7.9, respectively, I'd say he has a pretty good season in front of him.