Detroit Tigers: 4 Ways the Tigers Can Still Win the AL Central

The Detroit Tigers are amidst a fierce battle for first place in the AL Central.

The Chicago White Sox are in a position to ensure that doesn’t happen.

After their final meeting with the White Sox on Monday, Detroit sat three games out of first in the AL Central. The Tigers won the season series12-6.

But that was indeed the last time the two teams will see each other.

Detroit has seven games remaining against the Royals, six against the Twins and two versus the A’s. Chicago, meanwhile, has six left against the Indians, four against the Rays, three against the Angels and two more against the Royals.

(As of late Tuesday night, Detroit beat Oakland 12-2 and Chicago defeated Kansas City 3-2.)

Now with a total of 15 games left in the 2012 MLB season, can the Tigers bridge the gap and take the division?

Let’s review the four ways how the Tigers can win the AL Central.

The Verlander Factor

The 2011 AL CY Young and MVP winner is not quite on the same pace in 2012.

But he’s still Justin Verlander.

At 14-8 with a 2.82 ERA, Verlander is having a fine season. His AL-leading 217.1 innings pitched and 218 strikeouts (second only to teammate Max Scherzer) indicate that he’s having a pretty dominant campaign.

Having an ace of Verlander’s stature is a huge advantage for the Tigers. If they need just one game to secure the division—whether that be a scheduled start or one on short rest—Verlander ranks above just about anyone else in that scenario.

That applies to the White Sox as well.

Third-year player Chris Sale has posted big-time numbers for the White Sox. Seventeen wins, 173 Ks and a 2.79 ERA reveal as much.

However, having never started a game before this year, he’s still a relatively raw commodity. In a one-game playoff-type situation, Verlander gets the upper hand without a shadow of a doubt.

As for the other contingent of starting pitchers numbering two through five, Detroit also owns the advantage.

The No. 2 starter in Max Scherzer has been nearly as good as ace Chris Sale with a stat line of 16-6 and 224 Ks in 178.2 innings pitched. Only Sale’s ERA and walk total rank better.

Rick Porcello, Doug Fister and Anibal Sanchez round out the Tigers’ rotation. Jake Peavy, Jose Quintana, Gavin Floyd and Francisco Liriano comprise the remaining starters for the White Sox.

The No. 5 starters for each club effectively cancel each other out due to their consistently up-and-down performances. In terms of the top four, though, Verlander, Scherzer, Porcello and Fister are a more quality bunch than Sale, Peavy, Quintana and Floyd.

Their collective ERAs and WHIPs are essentially a wash, but Detroit’s group is more dominant with 657 Ks (versus 542) and 48 wins (versus 43). 

From Verlander down through the rest of the rotation, the Tigers have the pitching advantage for the homestretch.

Strength of Schedule

Said homestretch is much more favorable to the Tigers than the White Sox.

The Tigers’ remaining opponents have an average winning percentage of just .459. They have also won the majority of games against them, posting a 17-11 record

On the other hand, the White Sox have compiled a 20-16 record against their opponents with an average winning percentage of .471.

What really deems Chicago’s schedule as more challenging is that two series are against teams with dire postseason aspirations. Robin Ventura’s club plays three against the Angels on the road and host the Rays for four.

Those teams are second and third, respectively, for the final wild card opening. They’ll be fighting for their playoff lives when the White Sox arrive on the schedule.

After battling the upstart A’s for the first half of this week (winning the first game as of Tuesday night), Detroit plays four consecutive series against non-playoff opponents. It alternates home-and-away series with the lowly Royals and Twins.

While teams disqualified from October baseball love playing the spoiler role, that doesn’t entail that they’re more difficult of an adversary.

If Detroit takes them seriously and handles their business against these inferior opponents, they’ll be able to traverse a smoother route into the playoffs than the team in front of them.

The outcome of the series against Oakland will help decide just how smooth that route will be.

The Cabrera Factor

This factor relates to the value of having a superior ace and his trickle-down effect on the rest of the staff.

Miguel Cabrera is an AL MVP candidate and is far and away the superior hitter between both clubs. His 129 RBI lead the entire MLB, while his .333 AVG is tops in the AL.

His 40 home runs trump Adam Dunn’s 39, and the White Sox slugger pales in comparison as an overall hitter. He’s hitting just .211 with 198 strikeouts (one fewer than his career high and close to an MLB record).

From there, Prince Fielder is a much greater threat than the ageless Paul Konerko in all statistical categories, while Austin Jackson sets the table at a higher rate than Alejandro de Aza.

Jackson hits for more power; has a higher average; sports a higher on-base percentage, and has scored more runs than de Aza. Only the latter’s base-stealing prowess rates better.

Detroit’s lineup is just more thoroughly polished from top to bottom. The Southsiders have the exceptional home run power, but they also strike out at a much higher frequency.

That plays into the strength of Jim Leyland’s pitching staff. Verlander and Co. have been known to strike out a few batters from time to time.

Superior pitching diffuses strikeout-prone power hitters more often than not.

Jim Leyland vs. Robin Ventura

Chicago skipper Robin Ventura has done a phenomenal job in his first year.

The former White Sox third baseman with zero managerial experience in his career has defied all expectations. Guiding his team to a first place standing exemplifies his impressive accomplishments thus far.

All that said, it is indeed his first year in this role; this is some seriously uncharted territory for the rookie manager.

To the contrary, the Tigers’ field general is a baseball lifer with over 21 years of experience as manager.

He’s been in numerous playoff races, highlighted by a World Series title with the Marlins in 1997 and an AL Pennant with the Tigers in 2006.

He’s managed some of the most difficult personalities in the game, knows how to maximize talent and understands the myriad nuances that come with the territory of a stretch run to the postseason.

The edge has to go the Tigers in the managerial department.

For those who scoff at the notion that managers are overrated, just remember a certain Ron Washington advancing to the WS in two consecutive years with the Rangers, but getting out-managed both times around.

Ventura is certainly capable, but Leyland has the winning pedigree—and it’s really not even close.

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