Breaking Down Why Dwight Howard Gives L.A. Lakers Edge over OKC Thunder
With Dwight Howard, a bunch of old guys and a crazy dude (or two should Matt Barnes end up back on the team), the Lakers are starting to look like a real-life version of The Expendables. All they need is a few huge weapons, a razor-thin plot and tons on tons of explosives and they've got themselves a movie.
For the time being, however, they're going to have to stick to fighting against the Miami Heat and the Oklahoma City Thunder, rather than a bunch of pinned-up bad guys ready to be knocked down with the flick of a wrist.
Los Angeles put this team together with the goal of winning a championship, obviously, especially now that Kobe Bryant's window of greatness is slowly closing. Bringing in one of the best offensive facilitators in Steve Nash and the best defender in the league in Howard wasn't a bad way to go about trying to bring the title back to L.A.
While there are quite a few games to be played between the beginning of the season and the playoffs, it's pretty safe to say that few things will keep the Lakers from the playoffs this season. Once there, it seems obvious that the biggest obstacle to climb over is Kevin Durant and the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Now that Howard's in Los Angeles, the Lakers have the slightest edge over the Thunder.
One thing that people are going to point to when it comes to this new blockbuster matchup is that, well, Kendrick Perkins knows how to handle Dwight Howard. Admittedly, he certainly does.
In 24 matchups against each other in their careers during the regular season, Howard averages two fewer points, shoots two percent worse from the field and gets to the line just a bit less often.
In 13 playoff games against each other, Howard does a bit better scoring, putting up nearly 19 points a game, but shoots 5 percent worse than his career playoff average, which is right at 60 percent.
Whether it's the physicality of Perkins or just that he knows Howard's moves too well, he knows how to hold him back just a bit.
However, even holding him back a bit is allowing a guy to put up nearly 20 points per game and pull down about 13 rebounds every time they play. It's not like he's shutting him down to a point where he's more of a liability on the floor than off it.
What Howard brings to the table on offense is just going to be icing on the cake compared to what he does for Los Angeles' defense against the Oklahoma City Thunder.
Howard's style on defense is a stark contrast, although a parallel in terms of dominance when compared to Los Angeles' last dominant center, Shaquille O'Neal. Shaq was big and intimidating, able to use his strength to keep anyone out of the post and box out hard.
Howard's biggest asset on defense is his length and athleticism, which combine to allow him to contest every shot. That, combined with his quickness makes him an excellent help defender, great against the pick-and-roll and stellar at not allowing anyone in his reach to have an uncontested shot.
Beyond the intangible aspects, Howard is quantitatively smart on defense. He rarely bites on pump fakes, evidenced by his low foul rate in the post, giving up a foul on just under 17 percent of possessions that make it into the post.
That was his highest rate of three seasons, as he stayed below 10 percent in 2010 and 2011, which lends merit to the thought that he'll be able to bring that 17 percent way down.
This all seems to have more to do with Howard than Oklahoma City, right? Well, that's true, but the style of play that Howard brings to Los Angeles is going to have a huge impact on how the Thunder are able to play Los Angeles, which will be the reason for L.A.'s slight edge over OKC.
Oklahoma City shot jumpers on 70 percent of their attempts last season, a number that is shockingly high for such a young team. Most teams with players capable of getting to the rim shoot right in the range of 65 percent.
For a comparison, the young, athletic Heat attempted 66 percent of their shots in the form of jumpers, whereas Los Angeles settled for jumpers on a ridiculously high 72 percent of their possessions.
This might not seem like a big difference, but on 75 attempts per game that could mean four shots for the Thunder that would be jumpers compared to four that would be close shots for Miami.
Considering how much field goal percentage goes up the closer to the basket you get, that could be the difference between three or four points per game, which is big when two good teams are playing each other.
The Thunder had an effective field-goal percentage of 46 percent on those jumpers, compared to 57 percent on shots closer to the basket.
Here's where Dwight Howard comes in. Suddenly you've got a monster of an athlete in the paint, not only adjusting every one of those close shots that guys get off in the paint, thus dropping the field goal percentage there, but he also forces more jumpers by merely being down low.
Having a big man that good defensively can be the final decision maker when a ball-handler is deciding between streaking to the rim and pulling up for a 15-footer.
In a game between two very good teams, a few possessions is quite often the difference in the game. Los Angeles now has a guy that makes it just a bit harder for their opponents, especially Oklahoma City, to have efficient possessions.





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