Will Andrew Miller Excel in '09?

At 23-years old, Andrew Miller enters 2009 as an intriguing fantasy option.  Drafted sixth overall by the Tigers in 2006, Miller quickly reached the major leagues with tremendous potential, but little in the way of results.

Traded to the Marlins prior to ‘08 as part of the package that sent Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera, Miller failed to make a major impact. There were signs of hope, stretches of him realizing his potential, but come September he was exiled to the bullpen as the team tried to limit the abuse on his arm.

Let’s take a look at the numbers:

6 Wins
107.1 Innings
5.87 ERA
1.64 WHIP
89 Strikeouts (7.46 K/9)
56 Walks (4.70 BB/9)
.346 BABIP

He had a fantastic May (3-2, 2.43 ERA over 29.2 innings), but that was about it.  June was the only other month that his ERA was below 5 (at 4.22).  What you really should look at is his struggles early in games:

• First Inning - 9.90 ERA
• Second Inning - 8.24 ERA
• Third Inning - 4.74 ERA

After that, his worst ERA was in the sixth inning, with a 4.05 ERA, though that was in just eight innings. We’ve all heard the old adage that you need to get to good pitchers early, but this is more then that. It is immaturity. It is inexperience.

With another year under his belt, I would expect him to be able to right the ship. Walks were the main part of his problem, with his BB/9 in the major leagues of 5.2, compared to a 2.9 in his brief minor league career. The concern over his control is not a new thing, as Baseball America said the following prior to the 2007 season:

“Most scouts’ concerns about him center on his arm action, as he has a slight wrap in the back of his delivery that hampers his command.”

Is this something that he is going to be able to correct? Hopefully sooner rather then later, but it certainly hasn’t appeared that he’s been able to thus far. It has to be a concern as we head into 2009.

He has shown an impeccable ability to keep the ball in the ballpark, with a career HR/9 of 0.74.  Last season he was even better, with a 0.59 mark (in his minor league career, he was at 0.3).

He does a good job of keeping the ball on the ground, with a 45.9 percent GB% last season, a number that would have put him right around 35th in the league had he had enough innings to qualify. If he can keep that up, he could continue to avoid being hurt from the long ball.

He has a big fastball, though it hasn’t translated to big strikeout rate, even in the minor leagues. That makes it hard for me to see him taking a huge step forward, though it would not surprise me to see him improve a bit.

Miller is a taller pitcher, at 6'6" and is a lefty to boot. That could result in it taking a little bit longer for him to work out all the kinks and but everything together. It needs to be kept in mind.

With all that said, what do I expect from him in 2009, as he enters the season in the Marlins rotation:

165.0 IP, 9 W, 4.31 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 145 K (7.91 K/9), 79 BB (4.31 BB/9)

He has a ton of potential, but part of his problem is going to be an innings cap, which certainly will help to limit his potential value. Walks will also likely continue to plague him, making it tough for him to put up a WHIP that would be deemed usable.

Personally, I think it would be best to watch him for a distance, because he could easily hit a hot stretch and become a pitcher to use as a short-term. Overall, however, I wouldn’t recommend looking towards him as a pitcher likely to help much.

What about you? Is Miller a pitcher you think could turn the corner in 2009?  Why?

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