Fantasy Football 2012: Can You Trust Any Options on the New York Jets?

Before every selection in a fantasy football draft, you should ask yourself, “Is this player talented and is he in a good situation?” The latter has many wondering if they can trust any member of the tumultuous New York Jets.

Nobody on this organization should be selected within the first five rounds, and only Shonn Greene deserves to go before the 10th. The Jets are, at best, a late-round feeder.

Still, there are a few Jets who carry some good value. Then again, there are those who should remain entirely absent from fantasy football in 2012. 

Here are all the conceivable NYJ draft-day selections and their respective levels of trust.

All draft positions are courtesy of ESPN.com.

1. Mark Sanchez (ADP: 170, No. 29 Quarterback)

It’s hardly worth even dignifying the notion of drafting Mark Sanchez. I have repeatedly stressed in my fantasy football articles that most players can be good draft picks if selected at the appropriate time. Disregard that concept here.

The only reason you should ever draft Sanchez is if you play with an overzealous Jets fan and anticipate that you could perhaps get something via a trade. Of course, if such a fantasy manager does exist in your league, Sanchez is probably going into the pooper-scooper before the final round. Let him—under no circumstances should that ever happen. Even the most enthusiastic fans of Gang Green should know better.

An ADP of 170 means that he is going pretty much undrafted. Most leagues have 15 or 16 rounds. Final selections should be made on either a hunch or on perceived maximum upside. There’s no reason Mark Sanchez should trigger either of those feelings.  

Level of Trust: Benedict Arnold 

2. Tim Tebow (ADP: 140, No. 26 Quarterback)

Tim Tebow deserves to be on a fantasy team heading into Week 1.

Can you trust him? Well, that depends on what you are expecting. If you select him at his average draft position, you are expecting too much. Tebow should be a last-round selection and nothing more.

You won’t find too many final rounders with more of an upside, but don’t base any of your earlier picks on this potential acquisition.

Level of Trust: Your grandmother’s story about that party in 1963 when she met John Lennon

3. Shonn Greene (ADP: 69, No. 24 Running Back)

If there is one player on the Jets worth having, it is Shonn Greene.

Naturally, as is the case with every player on this team, Greene comes with some negatives. He is inconsistent, has little use in the passing game, plays in an unbalanced offense and brings all the intangible aspects that come from playing in New York.

But let’s look at the positives.

For one, Rex Ryan has repeatedly said that he will be returning to the Ground and Pound offense in 2012. Kimberley Martin of Newsday described the change in this article. New offensive coordinator Tony Sparano accomplished great things in Miami while implementing a similar focus.

Greene might not be among the league’s most talented runners, but he will have to get opportunities. Even if the Jets use a combination backfield, it’s hard to imagine Greene missing out on big plays with guys like the fumble machine, Joe McKnight, and unproven players, Bilal Powell and Terrance Ganaway, behind him.

Don’t make Green one of your top two backs. As far as third options go, however, Greene is about as reliable as they come.

Level of Trust: That friend who says things that are normally true, but sometimes speaks in hyperbole 

4. Santonio Holmes (ADP: 102, No. 35 Wide Receiver)

Santonio Holmes is the quintessential big-talent-usurped-by-a-terrible-situation fantasy option.

He’s currently falling in drafts with the likes of Reggie Wayne, Malcolm Floyd, Denarius Moore, Lance Moore, Michael Crabtree, Justin Blackmon, Nate Washington, Kenny Britt and Titus Young. I’d take them all over Holmes.

The Jets will be focused on running the football. On the times they do pass, well…they should probably just run it.

Holmes will be Sanchez’s favorite target at wide receiver (I haven’t even mentioned potential chemistry problems), but his production will likely be variable and underwhelming. He could be worth a bench spot, but only once the named receivers are gone.

Level of Trust: Political Commercials 

5. Dustin Keller (ADP: 143, No. 19 Tight End)

Dustin Keller has good value in a few different situations.

If you are the type of person who likes to spend the first 10 picks on running backs, wide receivers and a single quarterback—without exception—then Keller should be part of your pre-draft considerations.

I often abide by this strategy. Let everyone else waste his or her mid-round choices on a position that, for the most part, cannot offer week-to-week reliability. Stockpile from the positions that can.

The one downside to this strategy, however, is that it backfires the moment two people inexplicably decide to grab a back-up tight end. Drafting a back-up tight end within the first 10 rounds has to fall into any great sins of fantasy football list Unfortunately, that doesn’t mean people will refrain from making the mistake. If you get shafted, Keller will certainly be there for you.

Eventually, though, a second tight end becomes a worthy selection. This is especially true if the starter is injury prone or otherwise unreliable. Using one of your final two picks on someone like Keller would be a pretty decent choice.

Keller had the seventh most targets among tight ends last season. Unfortunately, he only brought in 65 catches. Sanchez and Keller have a great relationship. More running means more play-action, which means more bootlegs, which means more passes to Keller on slants across the middle of the field.

Level of Trust: A dentist 

6. New York Jets D/ST (ADP: 130, No. 9 D/ST)

There’s no better way to waste a mid-round draft pick than to spend it on a defense that “everybody” says is going to be good this year.

First of all, so much of what makes a good fantasy defense is hard to predict. It is not enough to be staunch against yards. A consistent D/ST has to get turnovers and sacks. A nice return game can go a long way too.

Even if San Francisco is the best defense in the league, you’d need to waste one of your first seven picks to get them. That’s just silly.

The Jets will have a good defense; they always do since Rex Ryan took over. Be one of the final owners to take one and you’ll be perfectly content all season.

Did I mention the Jets will get the NFC West and AFC South this year?

Level of Trust: The Numbers (which, I’ve been told, never lie)