Why Cincinnati Reds Prospect Billy Hamilton Will Redefine the Stolen Base

Stolen bases are not the most exciting play in baseball. It is always nice to have someone on your team who is capable of taking an extra base on his own, but as we have learned through advanced statistics and studies done on the game, a stolen base doesn't do that much to increase a team's chances of scoring or winning. 

Yet Cincinnati Reds prospect Billy Hamilton is changing everything we think we know about stealing bases. He is doing it because he is so different than any other runner in all of baseball right now. 

On Tuesday night, as a member of the Double-A Pensacola Blue Wahoos, Hamilton finally broke Vince Coleman's minor league stolen base record when he swiped four bags to push his season total to 147, two more than Coleman had in 1983 (via USA Today). 

I say finally because this is a record that was going to be broken; it was just a question of when Hamilton would do it. 

In an era in which everything is so focused on who can hit the ball farthest and who has the hardest fastball, Hamilton is a throwback player who can change the game with his speed. 

When we say Hamilton has speed, that is not to say that he is just fast.

Before the season started, Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus wrote about Hamilton's speed and what it does to opposing teams:

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To say Hamilton is an 80 runner does not do justice to the impact his speed has on the game. He has been known to go from first to third on singles to left field, has scored from second on sacrifice flies, and is a threat to steal both second and third whenever he reaches base.

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But there is a lot more to the stolen base than just speed. There are a bunch of players at all levels of baseball who have speed, but they are terrible at stealing bases because it takes knowing how to read pitchers. 

Hamilton has shown that ability better than a lot of young base stealers, as he has been successful in nearly 82 percent of his attempts this year and almost 83 percent throughout his minor league career. 

J.J. Cooper of Baseball America wrote an article about the art of stealing bases and what makes Hamilton so good at it:

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A speedy base stealer may make it from first to second in 3.2 seconds. When Hamilton gets a good jump, though, he will do it in a shade less than three seconds. Rickey Henderson was also capable of similar times. All of a sudden, the math of throwing out a base stealer starts to fall apart.

Even if the pitcher does his job, the catcher is going to have to throw quickly and on the money to nab Hamilton.

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Game-changing speed is great, but the fact that Hamilton knows how to use it makes him a weapon that no other team in baseball can match. (Yes, Astros prospect Delino DeShields Jr. is fast and has 90 stolen bases, but he is not as fast as Hamilton.)

Stolen bases may not change the game as much as fans think they do, but there is no one else in baseball like Hamilton. He changes the way teams do everything when he gets on base. 

Teams have to pay closer attention to him. Maybe pitchers are focusing too much on him and not the hitters in the box, or perhaps they just don't worry about him at all because they know they have no shot to keep him at first or second base when he gets there. 

As the game of baseball has evolved, the stolen base has taken a backseat to a much more fundamental approach. Instead of taking the extra base by stealing it, teams will give away outs and play conservatively hoping to manufacture runs. 

Hamilton changes all of that. His team doesn't have to worry about the sacrifice, nor do they have to do things just hoping to get one run, because when he gets on base, he is in scoring position. 

The best baserunner of the last 30 years is Ricky Henderson, who would tell you (and Lou Brock) that he is the greatest baseball has ever seen. He had the speed to steal bases and the instincts to know when he should go. 

Hamilton is going to be that kind of threat on the bases. He isn't going to be the same kind of player as Henderson, because Hamilton doesn't have Henderson's power, but as far as pure speed and baserunning go, Hamilton is in that category. 

Stolen bases don't often create a lot of buzz today because they aren't viewed as an important part of the game. We want to see Bryce Harper hit a 450-foot home run. We want to see Aroldis Chapman hit 102 with his fastball. 

But in this era of pitching and defense, Hamilton is a more valuable asset than he would have been 10-15 years ago. He is becoming a good line-drive hitter, which is crucial for his development, because if he can't get on base, he can't steal them. 

When Hamilton gets to Cincinnati, people are going to pay money just to see him hit balls to the left side of the infield because he will get on base a good percentage of the time when he does this. Once on base, he is going to take second and third, because he is that fast and smart. 

That is a testament to how captivating this soon-to-be 22-year-old has been. In July at the MLB Futures Game, surrounded by players like Dylan Bundy, Jurickson Profar, Wil Myers and so many other great prospects that have the baseball world buzzing, Hamilton was all anyone wanted to talk about. 

People are talking about speed and stolen bases again simply because of what Hamilton has done in the minors and what he can potentially do in the big leagues when he is ready. 

Speed is an underrated part of baseball. Teams always need it, but there are so few players who have enough smarts and instincts to know how to use it.

Hamilton is going to change everything we think we know about the stolen base. 

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