LA Dodgers Trade Rumors: Why Greinke, Josh Johnson Are Better Fits Than Dempster

The Los Angeles Dodgers have been coveting Chicago Cubs veteran righty Ryan Dempster for some time now, and all signs point to him being L.A.'s pitcher to lose.

It looked like Dempster was headed to Atlanta to join the Braves earlier this week, but he nixed that trade by exercising his 10-5 rights. It was widely reported beforehand that Dempster's preference was to end up in Los Angeles, and Ken Rosenthal of FoxSports.com eventually reported that it was this preference that inspired Dempster to block the trade to Atlanta.

The Cubs reengaged the Dodgers in trade talks involving Dempster shortly after the trade to Atlanta fell apart, and, at last check, things were looking good for the Dodgers. Jon Paul Morosi of FoxSports.com tweeted on Tuesday that a deal for Dempster was "realistic," and ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted on Wednesday that the Dodgers were feeling "increasingly confident" about their chances of getting something done.

The Dodgers and Cubs have five days to figure things out. It's likely just a matter of time before Dempster is wearing Dodger blue, as the Cubs have been short on both leverage and options ever since Dempster killed the trade to Atlanta.

In the event that the Dodgers do miss out on Dempster, Morosi has reported that they have two primary fallback options:

"

If #Dodgers can't complete deal for Dempster, they have Zack Greinke and Josh Johnson on their list, as well, sources say.

— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) July 25, 2012"

Greinke and Johnson are otherwise known as the two best pitching targets on the market. And though Dempster is having an excellent season, both Greinke and Johnson are far more desirable pitchers.

As great as Dempster has been this season, his 2.25 ERA stands out as being way too good to be true. This isn't far from the truth for two reasons:

1. Dempster's FIP checks in at 3.40, according to FanGraphs. That's a sign that good luck has played a significant part in his success this season.
2. Demspter entered this season with a career ERA of 4.41. He had an ERA of 4.80 last season. His track record suggests that he's overachieving in a major way this season.

Greinke and Johnson have much stronger track records. Greinke won the AL Cy Young award in 2009 and has been as good as any pitcher in baseball since last year's All-Star break. He presently leads all of baseball with a FIP of 2.50.

The perception is that Johnson has underachieved this season, but he actually ranks ninth in baseball with a FIP of 2.97. Since the start of the 2009 season, no pitcher in baseball has a lower FIP than Johnson.

In fact, Johnson and Greinke rank No. 1 and No. 2 in FIP since the start of the '09 season. This is as good a sign as any that they are two of baseball's elite pitchers.

So yeah, the Dodgers are right to have the two of them on their radar. They are, after all, on the lookout for an ace pitcher. Greinke and Johnson qualify as aces more than Dempster does, by a significant margin to boot.

The reason neither Greinke nor Johnson have ace-like numbers such as Dempster's has a lot to do with the teams they play on. The thing to keep in mind about ERA is that it's a stat that takes defense into account, and Greinke and Johnson both play on well-below-average defensive teams. Lucky breaks have been hard to come by for both of them, hence their non-ideal ERAs (Greinke is at 3.44, Johnson at 4.14).

The Dodgers are not the best defensive team in the world, but they're slightly above-average. Per FanGraphs, their team UZR checks in at 6.4, with their team DRS checking in at minus-7. They're not the Los Angeles Angels, but they're better defensively than both the Brewers and Marlins.

So if Greinke and Johnson were to be taken out of their natural habitats and put on the Dodgers, odds are that their ERAs would come to reflect their pitching ability.

Sounds great. The only downside is that both of them bear enormous price tags.

Brewers general manager Doug Melvin told Bob Nightengale of USA Today on Thursday that Greinke will be traded. No ifs, ands or buts about it. To actually acquire him, ESPN's Jayson Stark theorized that it could take a package of prospects similar to the one that landed CC Sabathia in Milwaukee in 2008: two highly regarded minor leaguers and two other minor leaguers.

The Dodgers don't have a ton of minor-league depth to spare, hence the reason Stark notes that they're not as interested in Greinke as Morosi's report indicates.

The price for Johnson is just as high, as Jon Heyman of CBSSports.com has reported that the Marlins are seeking a "Teixeira-like" package in return for Johnson. Stark reported earlier this week that it will take a "package centered around a young, star-caliber player who isn't arbitration-eligible" to land Johnson.

In other words, the Marlins want the moon for Johnson. If they don't get the moon, they'll keep him without any regrets whatsoever.

The writing is on the wall that if the Dodgers are going to pay an insane price for a pitcher in a trade, it's going to be for a pitcher whom they can control beyond the final two months of the 2012 season.

That basically takes Greinke out of the equation altogether. He's in his walk year, and the Dodgers can't take it for granted that they'd be able to re-sign Greinke after the season, even despite their seemingly limitless financial resources.

Johnson, on the other hand, is under contract through the 2013 season. He could help the Dodgers make a run at the World Series this year, and he could help them make a run at it next season, too. And indeed, a one-two punch of Johnson and Clayton Kershaw is the kind of thing that should make Dodgers fans salivate uncontrollably.

It's probably going to take everything the Dodgers have in order for them to land Johnson. Zach Lee would have to go, and so would Allen Webster and a couple of other top prospects. The same is true of Greinke if the Dodgers choose to make an all-out charge to acquire him (not likely).

The Dodgers want to win now, but they've made it clear enough in the last couple of weeks that they're not looking to empty their farm system. This is why they've been linked to Dempster more than any other pitcher, as trading for him won't require the Dodgers to liquidate their coveted prospects.

If the Dodgers do trade for Dempster, however, they'll be acquiring a good No. 2 or No. 3 more than they'll be acquiring a No. 1. If they want an ace, emptying their farm system for Greinke or Johnson is something they'll have to do.

My guess is that Ned Colletti would prefer not to do something so drastic. My other guess is that a simple nudge from the team's championship-hungry ownership would probably be enough to change his mind.

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