Analyzing Stephen Strasburg's Innings Limit and What It Means for Nationals

Stephen Strasburg’s 160-inning limit for this season has been a predominant story line surrounding the Washington Nationals.

Strasburg has dominated this season and helped spark the team’s resurgence. He is 10-4 on the year with a 2.66 ERA and he leads the National League with 135 strikeouts.

The 6’4”, 220-pound power pitcher has lived up to all the hype of being the top overall pick in 2009. He was absurdly dominant at San Diego State and was considered one of the top pitching prospects ever to come out of college.

But Strasburg has also had his struggles with injuries. He has a violent throwing motion that has caused concern over his long-term durability, and he underwent Tommy John surgery in September of 2010. 

This has led the Nationals management to handle their ace with extreme care. They are adamant that they will shut down Strasburg for the remainder of the year once he reaches a presumed 160-inning limit, regardless of any other circumstances.

This has led to a flurry of speculation about whether Washington will keep their word if the team is in a pennant race. With the Nationals currently holding a 3.5-game lead over the Atlanta Braves in the NL East, this hypothetical situation will likely become a reality, and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out. 

Here’s a full breakdown of the controversy surrounding the inning limit.

Why 160 Innings?

This number has been thrown around sports media outlets all season, but no one from the Nationals staff has actually confirmed that this is the limit placed on Strasburg.

As noted by Bradford Doolittle of Baseball Prospectus (subscription necessary to read), General manager Mike Rizzo said the following, via Yahoo Sports’ Kevin Kaduk.

"

Look, the media put (the 160-innings limit) out there, not me. It probably comes from what Jordan Zimmermann pitched last year.

I don't have a specific pitch count in my mind, a specific innings count in my mind. I am going to refer to my experience as a farm director, as a player development guy, and knowing his body. 

"

While 160 innings is not an official number, it is a likely estimate. Strasburg is averaging 5.83 innings pitched every time he throws and has pitched 105 innings thus far. If the team’s number is around 160 and he continues on his current pace, he has about nine games left before the coaching staff shuts him down.

The reason to protect his arm is because of his recent Tommy John surgery. This procedure, formally known as ulnar collateral ligament reconstruction, is a common surgery that has revolutionized pitching. 

An injured UCL used to end a player’s career, but now a tendon is taken from the patient’s own body and used to repair the damaged elbow ligament. It is safe and effective, with 75-85 percent of athletes making a full recovery, according to WebMD.com. 

However, it does involve a fairly lengthy recover process and teams often opt to ease their players back into the rigorous routine of a professional starting pitcher. 

This is why the Nationals limited Zimmermann, who had the surgery in 2009. He has made a full recovery and currently has a 2.48 ERA. The Nationals have been vindicated in the way they have handled the 26-year-old, as he has turned into an top-class, durable pitcher.

But Washington was also a bottom-dweller in the NL East when they shut down Zimmermann. With Strasburg, the decision will be met with significantly more scrutiny.

Why Shutting Him Down is a Good Idea

Using Zimmermann as a case study offers a great example for the Nationals on why they should shut down Strasburg.

This is the safe way to handle a player who will be the cornerstone of the franchise for many years to come. Rizzo made this emphatic statement to the Joel Sherman of the New York Post. 

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To ask [Strasburg] to throw 200 innings now [off those previous totals], that is not a prudent way to do business with a 23-year-old, top-of-the-rotation starter we plan to have for a long time. [Shutting him down] is going to be painful, and we are going to take grief. But I will not shy away from it. I am the caretaker of this organization for the long haul. 

"

Thinking about this situation with a long-term view shows that benching Strasburg is the right call. The team has other exciting young players like Zimmermann and Bryce Harper, and they will have talent on the roster for many seasons to come.

Strasburg is so talented, that risking his future for a chance at one playoff run is selfish and irresponsible. If Rizzo and manager Davey Johnson decide to bench him in the midst of a pennant race, it will be a monumentally difficult decision, but it will be the right one for Strasburg and the Nationals’ future.

Why Shutting Him Down is a Bad Idea 

This idea is certainly not popular with Strasburg himself. 

Speaking on the MLB Radio Network, the pitcher said, “They're going to have to rip the ball out of my hands,” via ESPN.com. 

Like any competitive athlete, the thought of not being able to help out his team during the most important games of the season is infuriating.

It may also cause certain players to resent the coaching staff. Imagine a bruised and broken veteran hauling his body out bed each morning for another game or practice, yet still getting yelled at to run faster and play harder. All this is happening while the manager is overprotecting a seemingly healthy 23-year-old. 

But the most obvious reason why this is a bad idea is that it could cost the Nationals a trip to the playoffs, or a chance to make it to the World Series. This team has a fantastic pitching staff, but it instantly becomes more ordinary without Strasburg. 

The San Francisco Giants rode a stable of hot pitchers to a title in 2010, and Washington has the potential to do the same. 

Without Strasburg though, that would be nearly impossible.

What the Team Should Do 

Shut him down. The right thing to do is always more difficult. It will cause a frenzy in the media and it will frustrate the fans, but it will protect the most important player on the team and set him up for a long, healthy, successful career.