Setting Odds That Every First-Round NFL Rookie Starts in 2012

Most teams select a player in the first round with the hopes that he becomes an immediate starter. However, there are plenty of players that don't fulfill those hopes. The reasons vary from things like having a veteran ahead of them on the depth chart or the player needing more time to develop.

Even if a rookie doesn't have a chance to start early in his career, it doesn't mean he can't make an impact. According to Pro-Football Reference, Aldon Smith didn't start a single game for the San Francisco 49ers but still registered 14 sacks.

Please keep in mind that these odds don't account for injury. Of course, an injury has the potential to elevate any of these players.

Andrew Luck, Indianapolis Colts

Odds: 100 Percent Chance to Start

The Indianapolis Colts moved on from the Peyton Manning era because they were able to land Andrew Luck. They only went in this direction because they felt comfortable turning the reins over to Luck in his rookie season. The Colts wouldn't have been able to survive letting Manning walk if the next guy was a project quarterback.

Indianapolis felt so comfortable about Luck that it spent the rest of the draft adding talent to fit his playing style. Drafting both Coby Fleener and Dwayne Allen gives the Colts the opportunity to run a two-tight end offense similar to what Luck ran at Stanford.

Also helping Luck's starting chances is his mental makeup and high football IQ. This is a player that won't let the difficulty of the game slow his development.

Robert Griffin III, Washington Redskins

Odds: 100 Percent Chance of Starting

Mike Shanahan and the Washington Redskins surrendered a large amount of draft picks to immediately insert Robert Griffin III into the starting lineup. They wouldn't have given up such a large package if they didn't feel he was capable of making a quick transition.

This is combined with the fact that the Redskins really don't have any other options at the quarterback position. Shanahan's recent experiments with Donovan McNabb, John Beck and Rex Grossman have been such a disaster that it would be safe to say he was on the hot seat. By adding Griffin III, Shanahan gave him a few more seasons to turn things around.

Washington is another team that made some specific moves to help the development of its young quarterback. Adding Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan were moves made to fit Griffin III's down-the-field throwing style.

Trent Richardson, Cleveland Browns

Odds: 100 Percent Chance of Starting

No offense to Montario Hardesty, but nobody on the Cleveland Browns' roster is going to keep Trent Richardson out of the starting lineup. He's not only the most talented running back on the roster, he is also the most explosive offensive player.

The Browns didn't use the No. 3 overall pick in the draft to bring in a backup running back. They also didn't make this choice because they felt they had other talent at the position. In fact, Cleveland saw Richardson as the top available offensive player and pulled the trigger.

Richardson isn't only going to open the season as the starter, he's going to be the focal point of the offense. This team needs him to be successful to help out fellow rookie Brandon Weeden.

Matt Kalil, Minnesota Vikings

Odds: 100 Percent Chance of Starting

Last year, the Minnesota Vikings went with Charlie Johnson at the left tackle spot, where he and the rest of the offensive line surrendered a total of 49 sacks. This poor production is the catalyst behind the Vikings' decision to select Matt Kalil with the No. 4 overall pick.

Kalil's athleticism and fluid movements will allow him to step in and immediately improve Minnesota's pass protection. Improving this area of the offense is important because it plays a major role in the development of quarterback Christian Ponder.

The addition of Kalil will help provide Ponder with the time needed to locate open targets. Being able to feel more comfortable in the pocket is something Ponder needs to improve from last season.

Justin Blackmon, Jacksonville Jaguars

Odds: 90 Percent Chance of Starting

Justin Blackmon was selected by the Jacksonville Jaguars because of their lack of explosive playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. They're hoping his presence will help with the development of Blaine Gabbert and open things for the running game.

At this point, only Mike Thomas stands in the way of Justin Blackmon and a starting role. Thomas led the Jaguars in receptions last season. Despite his solid contributions, it's a long shot for Thomas to beat out Blackmon for the starting job.

Blackmon is the type of receiver that will quickly become a quarterback's favorite target. He's capable of stretching the field, working the underneath routes and gaining yards after the catch. Look for the Jaguars' coaching staff to develop plenty of plays aimed at getting him the ball quickly after the snap.

Morris Claiborne, Dallas Cowboys

Odds: 100 Percent Chance of Starting

Last season, the Dallas Cowboys' secondary was one of the main reasons they failed to make the playoffs. In two late-season losses to the New York Giants, Dallas' defense allowed Eli Manning to compile 746 passing yards and five touchdowns. These poor performances are what prompted the Cowboys to trade up in the draft to land Morris Claiborne.

Claiborne is a multi-talented defensive back with the quickness, fluidity and toughness to develop into a lockdown corner. His willingness to play a physical brand of football is something that will help him fit in Rob Ryan's game plan.

With the addition of Claiborne and Brandon Carr, Ryan will be able to employ a wide range of blitz packages.

Mark Barron, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Odds: 100 Percent Chance of Starting

Mark Barron's athleticism and football IQ are what allows the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to make him a day-one starter. He'll have his share of rookie mistakes, but look for the Bucs to put him in a position to avoid mistakes. Their decision to start him at strong safety means that he'll have fewer coverage responsibilities and be able to focus more on supporting the run.

I've been vocal with my belief that Barron has a great chance to finish the season as the defensive rookie of the year. His role with the Buccaneers will allow him to tally a large number of tackles. That number combined with his potential to create turnovers is what puts him in the running for the award.

Ryan Tannehill, Miami Dolphins

Odds: 50 Percent Chance of Starting

As it stands, Ryan Tannehill will enter training camp behind both David Garrard and Matt Moore. It's very unlikley that he'll do enough during camp to begin the season as the starter. However, that doesn't mean we won't see Tannehill at some point during the season.

The Miami Dolphins have some decent talent, but neither Garrard nor Moore are capable of consistently leading their team to victory. They especially will find it tough to succeed without a ton of talent at the wide receiver position. This means the Dolphins are likely to suffer through another losing season

However, Miami's defense is talented enough to keep a lot of games close. If somehow Chad Ochocinco can regain some of his explosiveness, the Dolphins could surprise a few people. Still, this scenario looks unlikely.

Look for Miami to give Tannehill a shot to show his development later in the season. Inserting him in the starting lineup when there's little pressure to succeed is a wise strategy.

Luke Kuechly, Carolina Panthers

Odds: 100 Percent Chance of Starting

Luke Kuechly was one of the more NFL-ready prospects in this year's draft class. His combination of athleticism and football IQ will help him make a smooth transition into the league. The Carolina Panthers have already inserted him in the starting lineup.

At this point, it's just a matter of what position Kuechly will play when the season begins. Originally, the Panthers had planned to feature him at outside linebacker, but he impressed with his play in the middle during summer workouts.

The Panthers are in a good situation because both Kuechly and Jon Beason have the versatility to play either inside or outside. They just need to find the best spot for each player and move forward with their decision.

Stephon Gilmore, Buffalo Bills

Odds: 100 Percent Chance of Starting

Stephon Gilmore climbed up a lot of team's draft boards because of his all-around skill level. The Buffalo Bills were one of the teams that fell in love with his well-rounded set of skills. He's not only an excellent athlete but also possesses a great feel for the game. Chan Gailey was recently quoted as saying that Gilmore is "very mature beyond his years".

This maturity combined with a strong summer is how Gilmore solidified a starting job. The Bills' defense added a lot of nice pieces this offseason and could potentially be one of the better units in the league. Gilmore's solid coverage skills and ability to create turnovers will play a major role in the defense's development.

Dontari Poe, Kansas City Chiefs

Odds: 100 Percent Chance of Starting

Despite needing some time to develop, Dontari Poe has already seen a significant amount of practice reps with the Kansas City Chiefs' first-team defense. The fact that he'll be asked to play the nose tackle position will help ease his transition into the league. Poe's size and strength give him the skills needed to hold at the point of attack.

The Chiefs would love to see some disruptive play from Poe but will be happy just to have him occupy blockers. Asking him to eat up space will limit the amount of pressure on Poe to perform. It's hard for a young player to deal with failing to meet expectations. The Chiefs are kind of protecting Poe a little with how they want to utilize him.

Kansas City got a small glimpse of how important having a strong nose tackle is when Kelly Gregg was in the lineup. There's no doubt that Gregg's impact played a role in the Chiefs' decision to pull the trigger on Poe.

Fletcher Cox, Philadelphia Eagles

Odds: 40 Percent Chance of Starting

The Philadelphia Eagles already had a strong starting defensive line when they decided to select Fletcher Cox in the first round. His addition is more about improving the depth and planning toward the future. Despite the unlikelihood of him earning a starting job, Cox will see plenty of action in the Eagles' defensive line rotation.

As it stands, Philadelphia will roll with a starting defensive line of Trent Cole, Cullen Jenkins, Mike Patterson and Jason Babin. Cox might be more talented than Patterson but can't equal his run-stuffing ability. The Eagles need Patterson to fill that all-important nose tackle role.

The only way Cox sees time as a starter is if someone misses time with an injury. Still, that doesn't mean he won't have an impact this season. His explosive first step and high motor allows him to make plays behind the line of scrimmage.

Michael Floyd, Arizona Cardinals

Odds: 90 Percent Chance of Starting

According to Dan Arkush of Pro Football Weekly, the Arizona Cardinals plan on opening camp with Michael Floyd as their No. 4 wide receiver. This is more to force Floyd to earn his role than it is about the other talent on the roster. Arizona brought Floyd into the fold to feature him and Larry Fitzgerald in the same lineup.

Floyd's presence will help draw some coverage away from Fitzgerald's side of the field. The past few seasons, Fitzgerald has been forced to deal with double and even triple teams. Floyd has the talent to make opposing defenses pay if they decide to overload Fitzgerald's side of the field.

It's a long shot, but there's a chance Floyd doesn't begin the season as a starter. However, there's no doubt that he'll end the season with more than a handful of starts under his belt.

Michael Brockers, St. Louis Rams

Odds: 90 Percent Chance to Start

Michael Brockers' starting chances are enhanced because of the lack of talent on the St. Louis Rams roster. Even as a rookie, Brockers is more talented than Trevor Laws and Darell Scott. Having Chris Long and Robert Quinn on the outside getting after the quarterback should alleviate the pressure on Brockers.

Look for the Rams to ask Brockers to use his strength to hold at the point of attack and stop the run. If he can provide solid run support, it would be a successful rookie season for such a raw player. St. Louis needs to be patient with Brockers and allow him to develop. However, this doesn't mean he won't make a meaningful contribution this season.

Bruce Irvin, Seattle Seahawks

Odds: 30 Percent Chance of Starting

Bruce Irvin was the surprise pick of the first round, but the more you look at his talent level, the more you start to understand the Seattle Seahawks' decision. Irvin is an explosive athlete who routinely beats offensive tackles to the edge. His ability to generate pressure on the quarterback will help him see immediate playing time. However, he's very unlikely to earn a starting role this season.

The first obstacle for Irvin's starting chances is the presence of Chris Clemons on the roster. Clemons has developed into a solid pass-rusher, as he led the Seahawks with 11 sacks last year. The other defensive end spot is manned by Red Bryant. Seattle's defensive system requires a five-technique type to play one of the defensive end spots.

Irvin's struggles holding up against the run will also prevent him from being a full-time player early in his career. He'll have a ton of opportunities to make plays this season, but it will be as a situational pass-rusher.

Quinton Coples, New York Jets

Odds: 100 Percent Chance to Start

Quinton Coples is a multi-talented defensive end who fits the New York Jets' scheme in many ways. He'll open the season as a starter because of his talent and the Jets' lack of talent at the position. New York sees so much upside in Coples that they will feature some 4-3 alignments.

While Coples is a versatile player, his best fit is at defensive end in a 4-3 system. He has the size, quickness and length needed to bring pressure off the edge. Coples is also powerful enough to hold at the point of attack and support the run.

Asking him to play the five-technique role doesn't properly utilizes his pass-rushing ability. Playing five-technique requires more focus on occupying blockers and holding at the point, not rushing the passer. This is the likely reason the Jets are adjusting their defensive strategy.

Dre Kirkpatrick, Cincinnati Bengals

Odds: 10 Percent Chance of Starting

The Cincinnati Bengals have a lot of depth at the cornerback position. Veterans like Leon Hall, Adam Jones, Jason Allen, Nate Clements and Terrence Newman figure to top the depth chart. The selection of Dre Kirkpatrick was more about the future. Adding him to the mix gives Cincinnati a future stud at the position and some roster flexibility.

While the above group of veterans figures to get a ton of playing time this season, all but Hall will be on the roster bubble next season. Cincinnati could cut ties with three of those four players, elevate Kirkpatrick to a starter and save themselves a ton of money.

Kirkpatrick also appears to need some time to learn the Bengals' system. In a recent interview, he discussed how he needs to learn how to backpedal and read a quarterback. These skills are needed to succeed at the next level.

Melvin Ingram, San Diego Chargers

Odds: 10 Percent Chance of Starting

Melvin Ingram's versatility will allow him to see plenty of playing time this season. However, that action won't come as a starter. The San Diego defense has two very talented outside linebackers already in place with Shaun Phillips and Jarret Johnson. These two players will be the starters as long as they're healthy.

However, this doesn't mean Ingram won't have an impact this season. The Chargers added him to the mix to increase the effectiveness of their pass rush. Look for Ingram to replace Johnson in the lineup in passing situations.

Ingram's experience playing defensive end and tackle will also help him earn playing time. NFL defenses feature a lot of different alignments. So, it's very possible that Phillips, Johnson and Ingram could be on the field at the same time.

Shea McClellin, Chicago Bears

Odds: 40 Percent Chance of Starting

Shea McClellin is a talented pass-rusher, but far from a finished product. His rawness and lack of experience at defensive end will cause him to open the season on the bench. McClellin did see some time at defensive end in college, but his new role will look a whole lot different.

He's going to need to get stronger versus the run if he hopes to beat out Israel Idonije. This isn't something that's easy to accomplish. So, we can expect to see McClellin used as a situational pass-rusher this season.

Despite the unlikelihood of McClellin earning a starting job, he'll still be able to make an impact this season. The NFL is a pass-heavy league, which will equate to more playing time for McClellin.

Kendall Wright, Tennessee Titans

Odds: 80 Percent Chance of Starting

Everything appears to be falling into place for Kendall Wright to begin the season as a starter for the Tennessee Titans. An impressive offseason, combined with the injury issues of Kenny Britt, means there will be opportunities for Wright.

Britt continues to have problems with his knees, and this is likely the main reason the Titans pushed Wright to learn all three wide-receiver spots. This versatility will be a real key to Wright earning a starting job at some point this season.

Wright's competition for a starting job includes Nate Washington and Damian Williams. If Britt is unable to return by the start of the season, the competition comes down to Williams and Wright. Washington's strong season last year just about guarantees him a starting spot.

Chandler Jones, New England Patriots

Odds: 90 Percent Chance of Starting

The New England Patriots desperately need Chandler Jones to quickly develop into a pass-rushing force. This desperation will be one of the keys behind Jones' ability to earn a starting job. However, he's also talented enough to deserve a starting role.

Jones is an explosive athlete who possesses good length and a nonstop motor. His strong work ethic will help him overcome most obstacles standing in his way of making an impact. Look for Jones to quickly surpass Brandon Deaderick and Trevor Scott on the defensive end depth chart.

Creating pressure on the quarterback is one of the most important factors to fielding a strong defense. The Patriots know how important Jones is to their success, and this is why they won't hesitate to give him a significant role.

Brandon Weeden, Cleveland Browns

Odds: 100 Percent Chance of Starting

The Cleveland Browns didn't draft a 28-year-old quarterback to have him sit on the bench. Brandon Weeden will be the starting quarterback in Cleveland this season. I have questions about his NFL readiness, but those aren't shared by Mike Holmgren, who stated:

"

He has a maturity about him ... if you’ve talked to him you get a sense for that. He is as prepared to come in and start as a rookie as any quarterback I’ve seen in a long time

"

My concern surrounding Weeden centers around his experience in college. While at Oklahoma State, Weeden ran a wide-open spread attack. This offense was nothing like the West Coast system run in Cleveland. Weeden is going to need time to learn the terminology, how to take snaps from center and make proper reads. It's going to be a long learning process.

Despite my concerns, there's little doubt that the Cleveland Browns will name Weeden their starting quarterback in the early part of training camp.

Riley Reiff, Detroit Lions

Odds: 70 Percent Chance of Starting

Riley Reiff will open camp as the No. 2 left tackle, but he'll also be given the opportunity to win the starting right tackle job. The inconsistency of Gosder Cherilus means that Reiff has a great shot at taking the right tackle job at some point during the season.

The Detroit Lions are strong contenders to make another playoff appearance. This might make them lean towards starting the veteran Cherilus early in the season. However, the Lions will quickly realize they need the more talented Reiff in the lineup.

Detroit is a pass-heavy offense and needs to ensure its quarterback is protected. Even as a rookie, Reiff is a stronger pass-protector than Cherilus.

David DeCastro, Pittsburgh Steelers

Odds: 100 Percent Chance of Starting

The Pittsburgh Steelers did a great job improving the talent along their offensive line this year. That improvement started with drafting David DeCastro in the first round of the 2012 draft. DeCastro is the type of player who's capable of immediately playing at a Pro Bowl level.

He does a good job keeping his pad level low and using that leverage to generate a push off the line. His ability to open running lanes will help the Steelers overcome the lack of top-notch talent at the running-back position. DeCastro also does a good job in pass protection and will play an important role in keeping Ben Roethlisberger healthy.

I'm excited to see what type of holes the combination of DeCastro and Maurkice Pouncey are able to create.

Dont'a Hightower, New England Patriots

Odds: 60 Percent Chance of Starting

The New England Patriots have some talent at the linebacker position, but that shouldn't keep Dont'a Hightower from earning a starting job at some point during the season. His versatility and playmaking ability will be tough to keep out of the lineup. Hightower's ability to rush the passer is also something the Patriots won't be able to ignore.

New England needs someone to step up and generate pressure on the quarterback. Their decision not to bring back Mark Anderson and Andre Carter leaves a major hole. They are looking for most of the pressure to come from a combination of Hightower, Chandler Jones and Rob Ninkovich.

At this point, it seems that the Patriots just need to find the right alignment to get the most production. I find it hard to believe that alignment doesn't include Hightower in a starting role.

Whitney Mercilus, Houston Texans

Odds: 10 Percent Chance of Starting

Whitney Mercilus is a talented pass-rusher, but he'll have a tough time surpassing either Connor Barwin or Brooks Reed in the starting lineup. Both Barwin and Reed showed last season that they have the ability to generate excellent pressure on the quarterback. The Houston Texans' decision to select Mercilus was more about adding depth and versatility.

While it's unlikely Mercilus will earn a starting role, it doesn't mean he won't have an opportunity to make an impact. Look for Wade Phillips to design alignments to get all three of his top pass-rushers on the field.

It's possible we'll see something where Antonio Smith is bumped inside to defensive tackle, Barwin down to defensive end and Mercilus is inserted at linebacker. At 6'4", 280 pounds, Smith has the size to play defensive tackle in passing situations.

Kevin Zeitler, Cincinnati Bengals

Odds: 100 Percent Chance of Starting

The Cincinnati Bengals continue to stockpile young talent. Their selection of Kevin Zeitler isn't sexy, but it helps strengthen the core of their offensive line. Marvin Lewis and company have already inserted Zeitler as the starting right guard. He only needs to have a steady training camp to hang onto the job.

Zeitler is both a powerful and athletic offensive lineman. He does a great job getting inside hand placement and generating a push off the line. His balance and quick shuffle helps him mirror potential pass-rushers. The addition of Zeitler will help the Bengals' offense continue to improve.

Cincinnati's lack of elite talent at running back only magnifies the importance of Zeitler's addition. They'll need a good push from the line in order to establish a strong rushing attack.

Nick Perry, Green Bay Packers

Odds: 100 Percent Chance of Starting

According to Dan Arkush of Pro Football Weekly, Nick Perry has already established himself as a starter in the Green Bay Packers' linebacking corps. He'll line up opposite Clay Matthews and be expected to help generate a pass rush. Green Bay added Perry to help draw attention away from Matthews or to take advantage of the one-on-one opportunities Matthews creates.

Transitioning from defensive end to outside linebacker could be an issue for Perry. Despite his athleticism, he shows stiff hips that will hurt his ability to drop into coverage. I also have concerns about his overall ability to rush the passer. He appears to lack the second gear needed to close and register the sack.

We'll find out quickly if Perry is the answer to the Packers' problems. Opposing offenses will still commit their resources to stopping Matthews, which creates a lot of pressure on Perry to get the job done.

Harrison Smith, Minnesota Vikings

Odds: 100 Percent Chance of Starting

The Minnesota Vikings decided to trade back into the first round because of the major need they had at the safety position. They selected Harrison Smith because he's an NFL-ready player with the potential to be a real difference maker. As soon as he was selected, Smith became the most talented safety on the roster. This is why he's already working with the first team.

Minnesota's pass defense allowed over 250 yards per game last season. It needed to correct that issue because the offenses in the NFC North continue to increase the explosiveness of their passing attacks. Having a terrible secondary isn't how you win games in a division featuring Aaron Rodgers, Matthew Stafford and Jay Cutler.

A.J. Jenkins, San Francisco 49ers

Odds: 0 Percent Chance of Starting

The San Francisco 49ers added several pieces to their wide receiver corps. Additions like Randy Moss and Mario Manningham, as well as holdover Michael Crabtree, will combine to keep A.J. Jenkins out of the starting lineup. If Jenkins had any chance of winning a starting job, it was lost after he had an unimpressive minicamp.

According to ESPN's Mike Sando, the 49ers see Jenkins as a major project who needs to get stronger before he can contribute. This evaluation means that Jenkins' value will come later in his career after he develops.

While Jenkins does have talent, selecting him in the first round was a major reach. At best, I had him rated as a mid-third-round prospect. He has the hands and speed to make an impact, but needs a lot of work to improve his route running and ability to get off the line.

Doug Martin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Odds: 90 Percent Chance of Starting

Despite the success of LeGarrette Blount, Doug Martin will likely open the season as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' starting running back. This is more about Martin's talents than it is about Blount's lack of talent. Both running backs will get opportunities to carry the ball, but look for Martin to see most of the action.

The fact is that Martin is just a better all-around player. He does a better job picking up the blitz, catching balls out of the backfield and avoiding turnovers. Not to mention the fact that Martin is also a better runner. He has excellent vision and the balance to make seamless cuts.

Blount still has upside, but look for him to be featured more as a short-yardage back.

David Wilson, New York Giants

Odds: 50 Percent Chance of Starting

Ahmad Bradshaw is the starting running back for the New York Giants, but he's not guaranteed to end the season in that role. Most see the Giants' selection of David Wilson as a complement to Bradshaw. However, it's easy to speculate that they see him as Bradshaw's replacement.

Wilson is an explosive runner who possesses the second gear needed to break off a long run. That explosiveness was on display during minicamp and was noticed by offensive coordinator Kevin Gilbride, who stated:

"

He looks very fast, which we knew going in, but to actually see it on the field, it was- I’m trying to think of the right word- encouraging, exciting. Both of those things seem to come to mind. He looks like if he has a hole, he’ll hit it and has a chance to do some damage.

"

Look for Bradshaw to remain the starter for the first half of the season, but Wilson is too talented to keep off the field.