Home Run Derby 2012: First-Round Predictions for Every Slugger

The Home Run Derby is a crapshoot. 

When guys like Albert Pujols, Evan Longoria, Jose Bautista, Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard struggle in the first round while lesser players out-slug them, you know you have an unpredictable contest. 

There are just so many more factors that go into making a good Derby hitter than simply the amount of home runs hit in the first half of the season. Nonetheless, I'm going to take a shot at how the first round will play out. 

Mark Trumbo, Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim: 15

The big boy who was actually born in Anaheim has been a revelation for the Angels this year, slugging .608 and piling up 22 dingers. 

Of course, that doesn't tell the whole story, as most of his home runs have been of the 400-foot or longer variety. 

Trumbo will put on a show in the first round, but he'll fizzle out as he gets to the finals. 

Jose Bautista, Toronto Blue Jays: 13

Bautista appeared in the Home Run Derby last year but was a disappointment, as he knocked out just four and was eliminated in the first round.

Nonetheless, this is the most powerful hitter in the major leagues (27 home runs at the break), and players usually bounce back if they appear in a second derby following an atrocious performance. Look for Bautista to do just that. 

Andrew McCutchen, Pittsburgh Pirates: 8

After failing to surpass 23 home runs or a .470 slugging percentage in his first-three seasons, McCutchen has taken a huge leap forward in 2012.

The 25-year-old star is hitting .362 with a ridiculous .625 slugging percentage and 18 home runs. He's young enough that he'll come in with nothing to lose and just put his nice and easy swing on the ball. 

Robinson Cano, New York Yankees: 8

Cano proved last year that his swing is built for the Home Run Derby (and, you know, built for giving starting pitchers nightmares, too). 

There's very little effort in what he does, and in 2011, as the night went on, the Yankee star got even better. I expect that to happen once again in Kansas City. Eight will be a decent start, but he'll only go up from there. 

Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies: 5

Gonzalez gets a lot of flack for being a product of Coors Field, and while his splits certainly suggest that is true, it doesn't mean he isn't a good hitter.

CarGo still has a good stroke, and he'll hit a few deep ones; but he won't show enough consistency to advance. 

Prince Fielder, Detroit Tigers: 5

Fielder is the wily veteran at this competition. This will be his fourth time competing, but that doesn't mean he's consistent.

In 2007, he hit three; in 2009, he hit 11 and ended up winning the entire competition; in 2011, he hit five before being eliminated in the second round. 

Despite Fielder's monstrous swing, I don't think the lefty will have a good night. 

Matt Kemp, Los Angeles Dodgers: 3

Kemp was establishing himself as the best hitter in the league before he went to the DL (.719 SLG, 12 HR in 36 games), but I still have my reserves. 

The young slugger certainly has the tools to dominate on Monday night, but rust will play factor. Don't expect Kemp, who finished last in 2011, to steal the show. 

Carlos Beltran, St. Louis Cardinals: 2

Beltran is on pace for close to a career year in terms of home runs and slugging percentage, and considering he has hit 322 dingers in his career, that's saying something.

Nonetheless, Beltran is the old man of this group. I wouldn't be surprised if he came out and gave a little less than 100 percent, just to save his energy and get a much-needed break. 

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