Breaking Down the Prototypical NBA Draft Prospect
There are 10 checkpoints or characteristics for NBA draft prospects, rarely will you find a player that hits every point. If you do, for all intents and purposes, that kid is likely going to become an all-time great.
These are the kids teams trade up for, and ultimately build a team around. This doesn't mean that a player who doesn't check out in all of these areas won't be great.
But these 10 things are the traits that scream "can't miss."
What exactly are the 10 checkpoints? I've listed them below with an explanation. I've also added a player from the 2012 draft class as an example in each category.
Age
This is pretty simple. Any player over the age of 22 is not an ideal prospect. It doesn't mean a 23-year-old like Jeffery Taylor won't make an impact, but his age is not looked at as a positive.
Pure Athleticism
A prototypical prospect would be an excellent and pure run-and-jump athlete. He's going to be agile, with the ability to change directions. This is the trait that allows a player to simply beast the opposition in tough situations.
At times, LeBron James makes a play that is not necessarily basketball-skill related. He simply elevates above an opponent, or uses his speed, and power to blow by a defender.
James is an extreme example, as he is the greatest pure athlete the sport has ever seen in my opinion. But in general, elite level athleticism is what generally catches a scout's attention first.
It genuinely sets the ceiling for a player offensively and defensively.
Andre Drummond is the player in this draft that fits the bill in this area.
Skill Level
Can the player shoot, does he handle the ball well? These are traits that can be improved upon, but some players have a gift in these areas. Shooting-touch can especially be improved, but each player has a different ceiling.
Shaquille O'Neal could have shot 1000 free throws a day, though he would have been a better shooter from the stripe, he would never be as good as Reggie Miller in that area.
Kyle Korver could do ball-handling drills twice-a-day, but he'll never handle it like LeBron. A prototypical prospect has shooting touch, ball-handling skills and passes accurately.
The other skills in the game are genuinely based on technique.
Austin Rivers is perhaps the most skilled player in this draft, and even he doesn't check out in every area.
No Physical Shortcomings
This is relative to the position, but generally it means no measurements (arm length included) that makes a kid too short for his natural position. There can be no major injury concerns, and no existing conditioning issues.
A prospect could be an absolutely deadly shooter, but he's 6'1" and doesn't handle the ball well. There may be a place for him on a team with a big point guard, but he wouldn't be called a prototypical prospect.
He's a tweener, and tweeners are never the perfect prospect. Bigger is always better, but the following are the minimum heights for prospects at each position.
PG - 6'1"
SG - 6'5"
SF - 6'7"
PF - 6'9"
C - 6'11"
Players like Jared Sullinger and DeJuan Blair had or have (in Sullinger's case) pre-existing injury concerns. Teams must be wary of this, and no matter the players talent level, this throws up red flags.
Not to pick on Sullinger, but he also falls into the conditioning issue category. He had the highest percentage of body fat at the NBA Combine, per DraftExpress.
Sullinger may ultimately prove the doctors and the critics wrong, but there is no denying his physical shortcomings dull his shine.
Measuring up directly affects a player's ability to get his shot off and to defend his position.
Motor
A player can be as talented as they come, but if he doesn't have a motor and he doesn't play with passion, he'll never reach his potential.
This is part of the reason Drummond has his doubters. His motor is consistently questioned, if it weren't for that concern, he'd be the No. 1 pick tonight.
An example from this year's draft that doesn't have that concern is Thomas Robinson. Robinson plays with great passion, and it allows him to play above his own talent level. He is a gifted player, but his motor takes him to the next level.
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist is another example of a player that goes hard all the time.
Basketball Instincts
Some things the great players do on the floor can't be taught, it's the vision and anticipatory ability to see a play unfold before it actually does. Great passers have it, players that play the passing lanes effectively have it, shot-blockers with great timing have it as well.
The slightest contortion by a player while he's in the air is all about instincts. It enables him to finish at the rim, and it translates into a more dangerous offensive player.
In this draft, Davis' ability to block shots stands out the most in this area.
This quality can almost completely hide athletic deficiencies. A prime example is Minnesota Timberwolves' point guard Ricky Rubio.
Rubio isn't blowing by anyone, but he sees and feels the game, and that allows him an advantage.
Work Ethic
Almost every prospect has had some success, if they hadn't they wouldn't even be in the draft. But the question here is, whose going to continue to work to get better. Even Michael Jordan didn't come into the league fully-tooled.
Kobe Bryant made himself into the Black Mamba with constant and tedious footwork drills. Jason Kidd made himself a better shooter by working on that weakness in his game.
Talent will get some players there, but the work ethic will keep them there—or even take them to the next level.
Vanderbilt's Taylor is a great example of this from the current draft. He has worked feverishly to make himself a better shooter. He's always been a great athlete, but he's gone from a nine percent three-point shooter his sophomore year to a 42 percent shooter as a senior.
That's work ethic.
Character
This can derail a prospect the quickest and most tragically. Bad off-court decisions can leave us wondering what if. Royce White is a talented prospect from this draft who has had some issues in his past.
He also battles an anxiety disorder that cannot be called a character issue, but it still gives general managers something to think about when considering him.
It's not just issues of this manner that make up the character checkpoint. Decision-makers must also ask themselves if a player is coachable? Will he accept feedback? Is he naturally a leader, or even a team-player?
These issues can drastically affect a player's bottom line.
Some Element of Proven Success
With the rules requiring players to attend one year of college—or at least be one year removed from high school—the dynamics have changed. LeBron and Dwight Howard were the top picks in the 2003 and 2004 drafts as prep to pros, their teams lucked out.
These guys turned out to be stars, even though no one had seen them play against top competition. James was such a beast that teams were as sure as you can be about a prep prospect, and Howard was a tier below that.
Ideally, you would like to have seen a player show some dominance on the collegiate level. There are no sure things in scouting, but a sound college resume takes some of the guesswork away.
Sometimes the resume only consists of one year, as is the case with Anthony Davis, and was the case with Derrick Rose, Kyrie Irving and Carmelo Anthony. Those players at least showed teams that they were the real deal in college.
Three of them lead their teams to the national championship game (Davis, Rose and Anthony), and two of them won it all (Davis and Anthony). Their outstanding individual play was validated by great team success.
We're at the point where most of the ballyhooed prospects are going to be one-and-done players. Rarely will a kid be talented enough to be considered a top-three pick, and not make himself eligible for the draft after his freshman year.
That said, a year of proven success is about all your going to get from the perfect prospect.
Upside
This is the draft, so it's about the future more than the present. That said, teams want to know that the best is yet to come from a prospect. They love the instant impact but prospects are investments.
The previous traits all lead up to this one, but athleticism effects this the most. Being limited athletically drastically effects the upside, but that isn't the only factor.
Age damages the upside, as does injury and a less than ideal height.
If you find a player that has all of these things, tell MJ to move over. LeBron is the closest I've seen to hitting every point, but even he arguably fell short of this as a prospect. Some may argue that he hadn't developed much of a work ethic as a prep star.
Luckily that's one of the checkpoints that can be added with time and maturity. Realistically, a prospect with eight-to-10 of these qualities is the top pick in the draft every year.
As for this class, I'd have to say that Davis, Kidd-Gilchrist and Robinson hit on more of these points than any other prospects. But it may be another 10 years before we see another prospect embody eight or more.
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