NBA Draft 2012: 5 First-Round Prospects Destined for a Draft Day Tumble

The NBA draft is a dream come true for many aspiring professional ballplayers, though for some, it turns into a nightmare.

Every year, a handful of college-aged kids tumble down the draft board before being selected in a spot much lower than they and the so-called experts had expected.

There are plenty of reasons why a player's stock may plummet, including injury concerns, character issues, poor pre-draft workouts and the needs of individual teams. Regardless of the reason, those prospects who fall down the draft board experience a range of emotions from anger to embarrassment to heartbreak as they helplessly watch team after team pass them by.

For at least one future NBA player, that disappointment is on full display for the viewing public.

The league invites several projected lottery picks to attend the draft and wait in the televised "Green Room" for their chance to shake the commissioner's hand. Inevitably, there's the last man standing, whose lonely plight becomes a sub-plot in the television coverage of the draft until his name is finally called.

Here are five players who are destined for a draft day tumble this Thursday.

5. Tyshawn Taylor

Tyshawn Taylor possesses many of the physical gifts that make NBA scouts drool.

He has the quickness to break down a defense at will, and his 6'3'' frame is ideal size for a point guard. Taylor was a defensive standout for Coach Self at Kansas, and his quick feet and active hands should enable him to defend point guards at the next level.  

The biggest question mark about Taylor is his decision-making. The New Jersey native has a poor shot selection and turns the ball over far too often for a point guard. His 4.2 turnovers per 40 minutes pace adjusted were second-worst among guard prospects in this year's draft.

On talent alone, Taylor would be a lottery pick, but his decision-making and questions about his character (he broke his thumb in a fight in December of 2009) have many experts projecting him to be a late first-round pick.

Unfortunately for Taylor, most of the teams picking late in the first round are not in the market for a point guard. The Bulls are his best bet with the 29th pick. Derrick Rose is going to miss most of the 2012-2013 season, and Taylor could serve as a solid short-term replacement and Rose's eventual backup.

If the Bulls decide to go in another direction or opt for a different point guard, such as Kentucky's Marquis Teague, Washington's Tony Wroten, Jr. or Tomas Satoransky of the Czech Republic, Taylor could slip all the way to the middle of the second round.

4. Perry Jones III

Perry Jones III is the biggest enigma in this year's draft.

If you watch the 6'11'' forward play, you can't help but marvel at his athleticism and fluidity on the court. You're also left wondering why he disappears for long stretches of time and fails to assert himself against smaller opponents.

Despite modest results during his freshman year at Baylor—13.9 points and 7.2 rebounds per game—basketball insiders projected him to be a top five pick in the draft based on his rare combination of size, quickness and athleticism.

Surprisingly, Jones returned to Baylor for his sophomore year, where he showed little improvement over his freshman year. His scoring average dropped slightly from 13.9 to 13.5 points per game, while his shooting percentage dipped from 54.9 percent to 50.0 percent.

Instead of alleviating concerns about his game, he reaffirmed doubts about his toughness, focus and consistency during his second season in Waco. He scored in single digits in 12 of his 33 games.

Jones recently admitted that the aspect of his game which needs the most improvement is his motor. That may scare some teams away on Thursday.

It wouldn't be shocking to see him go as high as sixth to Portland, though it's very possible that Jones' perceived lack of passion for the game will cause him to fall to late in the first round.

3. Royce White

Royce White has the type of well-rounded game that would fit nicely into any NBA team's offensive and defensive schemes.

The Iowa State standout averaged 13.4 points, 9.3 rebounds, 5 assists, 1.2 steals and .9 blocks per game during his sophomore season. He has the size—6'8'', 270—to bang down low and the ball-handling skills and court vision to succeed as a point forward. 

White also suffers from an anxiety disorder, which manifests in a fear of flying and causes him to lose focus at times. That, along with character concerns (He was arrested for shoplifting during his freshman year), will make some teams think twice about selecting him.

On June 21, White shut down all scheduled workouts, citing various injuries, which led to speculation that a team guaranteed they would draft him if he’s available. NBA.com's David Aldridge refuted rumors that the Celtics made White such a promise.

Based on his unique skill set, White could sneak into the later part of the lottery, though he's more likely to find himself waiting until the low-to-mid 20's before hearing his name called.

2. Terrence Jones

At 6'9'', 250, Jones has the size to back down small forwards, where he can finish with an array of post moves around the basket. Put a small forward on him, and he'll face up and use his quick first step to take him off the dribble.

Jones is also very athletic for a player his size, and his long wing span enables him to defend multiple positions. He blocked 1.8 shots per game this past season in Kentucky's suffocating defense. 

The down side of his versatility is that he's been labeled a "tweener" by pro scouts. Teams are concerned that he's not physical enough to play the 4, and his shot isn't reliable enough for him to play the 3. 

Scouts are also perplexed by his inconsistent effort. He contributed just four points, and his head wasn’t in the game during Kentucky's memorable loss to Indiana in December.

The biggest thing working against Jones is a glut of power forwards who are projected to be drafted in the first round Thursday night. 

Sacramento and Golden State (the fifth and seventh picks respectively) recently brought Jones in for a workout. Houston may also be interested if they hold on to their picks (12, 16 and 18), though he could drop to the Celtics at picks No. 21 and No. 22.

1. Jared Sullinger

Even before Sullinger was red-flagged by the NBA due to a herniated disk in his back, there was a wide variety of opinions among scouts as to how his game would translate to the professional level.

A year ago, Sullinger was projected to be a top-five draft pick, but his stock dropped during his sophomore season at Ohio State.

Scouts zeroed in on his flaws, specifically his lack of athleticism and Billy Hoyle-esque vertical leap. Basketball insiders question his ability to get his shot off over long defenders.  

That being said, Sullinger is the best offensive post player in the draft. He effectively uses his body to receive the ball where he wants it and to carve out space for rebounds. He increased the range on his jump shot last season, connecting on 40 percent of his attempts from behind the arc.

It's difficult to tell how concerned teams are about his back. J.J. Reddick was red-flagged by several teams prior to the 2006 draft because of a herniated disk, but the Magic selected him with the 11th pick any way. Teams may be more inclined to pass on Sullinger, though, because of the large number of power forwards available.

As recently as June 14, Yahoo.com predicted that Sullinger would be drafted seventh by Golden State. Now most mock drafts expect him to go somewhere in the 16-18 to range to Houston or Philadelphia. 

Don't be surprised if he's still on the board when the Celtics pick at No. 21.