Pedro Alvarez Reminds Pittsburgh Pirates of His Untapped Offensive Potential

Pedro Alvarez continued one of the strangest individual seasons in recent memory Sunday, hitting two home runs against the Cleveland Indians to raise his total to 12 on the season.

On the surface, Alvarez' four-homer outburst this weekend puts him on pace to hit over 30 blasts this season, in line with expectations for the Bucs' young power hitter (once you factor in the low batting average and high strikeout rate associated with these home run totals) entering 2012.

Yet how Alvarez has come by his 12 home runs is anything but ordinary.

Alvarez has appeared in 57 games for the Pirates this year. Aside from his four home runs this weekend, five of Alvarez' 12 home runs were recorded in a nine-game stretch from April 25 through May 3. In his other 46 games, Alvarez has hit three home runs.

It's not just home runs, either: In 34 games played between May 3 and Saturday, Alvarez totaled seven extra-base hits. During that same period, his OPS fell from .912 to .627.

No player in baseball has been streakier than Alvarez this season, and unfortunately for the Pirates thus far, the bad has outweighed the good. Following this weekend's performance, Alvarez' OPS sits at around .700, with his strong power numbers weighed down by an on-base percentage that is solidly below .300.

It is not surprising to see hitters go through peaks and valleys, but for Alvarez to become the core offensive contributor the Pirates need him to be, he will need to lessen the length and extent of those valleys. It's one thing to scuffle for 10 to 14 days; it's another to hit well below .200 for an entire month.

Yet weekends like this past one serve as a reminder to the Pirates of why they drafted Alvarez No. 2 overall and why they send him out to man third base each night. The Bucs' clean-up hitter of their short- and long-term futures can be Alvarez, though it isn't yet.

If he is on pace to hit over 30 home runs while striking out in nearly 32 percent of his at-bats and often looking helpless at the plate, there's no telling what his ceiling is if he can gain more confidence and consistency in his approach.

As is often the case with Alvarez, there are reasons for optimism (.235 BABIP prior to Sunday's game) and causes for concern (high strikeout rates in the minors and a strikeout rate over 30 percent in all three of his major league seasons).

Attempting to draw conclusions regarding Alvarez' future from statistical analysis is no easier than to attempt to do so by watching him play.

The Pirates seem to be maintaining confidence in their third baseman, with Clint Hurdle recently praising his work ethic and desire.

To Alvarez' credit, his defense at third base (where, once again, he has an elite skill set but has not fully put the pieces together yet) has improved this year as well. Alvarez has the potential to be a very special player in this league, as we have seen repeatedly.

There's certainly no guarantee Alvarez will ever make good on his potential. But this weekend's Pedro exists, somewhere, and the Pirates will exhaust all possible avenues to try to find him and keep him around.