Robert Griffin III: Realistic Predictions for Washington Redskins QB in 2012

First of all, Washington Redskins fans need to forget about Andrew Luck.

Although the two players may be forever linked, Robert Griffin III should not have his barometer for success set by another player in his draft class. Unless they play the exact same schedule, in the exact same conditions, with the exact same players, it simply isn't possible to compare their seasons. That is all you will hear from me on the matter.

In 2011, the Redskins underwhelmed. I've gone into detail about the reasons why elsewhere, but the fact remains that a team is eventually judged by its results, and the results were not there. Change was needed, and with the drafting of Griffin, it arrived.

Griffin has become an instant celebrity in D.C.—his charisma and focused attitude brought a breath of fresh air to a fanbase in danger of becoming jaded by mediocrity. Redskins fans are among the most loyal of any in the world, and the fact that FedEx Field remains at capacity each week is a testament to their dedication.

The fans deserve better than what the last 10 years has offered, so it's understandable that expectations grow higher each day to the extent that it's easy to forget that Griffin is a rookie.

At the same time, there are a lot of phrases such as "make or break" being used, and the front office has risked a lot on a player who has yet to take a snap in the NFL.

Mike Shanahan believes that Griffin is capable of producing things that have never been seen before, but I am wary of hyperbole and instead wish to remain rooted in the real world.

The first thing that Griffin will bring to the team is accuracy. He improved in this regard every year at Baylor, coming out of 2011 with a 72.4 percent completion rate, throwing for 37 touchdowns and just six interceptions.

These statistics will obviously not be repeated in 2012, and Griffin will make mistakes that are typical of every rookie. His interception number will likely end up dangerously close to that of Rex Grossman's 2011 count, but that is to be expected.

However, he has shown that he learns fast, so don't expect him to make the same mistakes very often. His passes are quick, and the flexibility he offers as an all-round athlete means that opposing defenses will be unable to make assumptions before a play.

Unpredictability goes a long way in the NFL, and Griffin's skill set provides an immediate upgrade in that area.

The Redskins were only able to amass 19 passing touchdowns last year, but the addition of Griffin should see that number increase by seven or eight. The vertical threat of Pierre Garçon will be an ally in this area, with the accuracy of Griffin's deep ball enabling him to find Garçon in tight windows.

The concerns regarding a player's ability to transition between a spread offense and a pro-style one are becoming more archaic with each passing year. The spread offense is bleeding into the NFL, and the evolution of the league continues.

Michael Lombardi, writing for NFL.com, sees this as a natural progression:

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Some might say the spread offense is not new to the NFL. And all the teams do run a version of the four-receiver spread attack.

But in reality, few run the spread with the quarterback being a major ball carrier like they do in Denver, Carolina and to some extent Philadelphia. That added dimension is something I could see becoming a new trend in the league.

Teams have been reluctant to run a spread option attack because of the QB injury factor, which clearly affects Philadelphia.

But Newton is a big man (6-foot-5, 248 pounds), and he dishes out more contact then he absorbs. Michael Vick is not a big man (6-0, 215), so despite being incredibly fast and explosive, he is not able to absorb the hits like Newton can or, for that matter, Tebow (6-3, 236).

"

Griffin can use the spread to his advantage, and running plays he is already familiar with will make for easier digestion of the playbook.

Cam Newton has been mentioned in the same breath as Griffin, and the comparison is a little lost on me. They both won the Heisman, yes, and did it out of a spread offense. They're both useful in and out of the pocket, and both have good arms.

Sometimes the best way to predict the future is to study the past, which means these sorts of comparisons must be made. There is always a historical antecedent, and it would be foolish to ignore them completely. However, in the case of Newton, the comparison is unjustified.

Griffin will not be able to spend as much time running as Newton; his position on the team is too vital to risk injury, and his frame will not take the same amount of hits. The zone-read quarterback runs that he is familiar with from Baylor are a useful addition to the offense, but they cannot become the norm.

The compensatory factor in this is that he has a better arm than Newton, especially on the run, and the large number of roll-outs employed at Redskins OTAs play to his strengths in that area.

His passing yards are unlikely to reach the level of Newton's, as he will not be carrying the burden of the offense alone, but Shanahan's system—as well as Griffin's deep-ball threat—gives him the opportunity to hit 3,500 yards in his rookie season.

Mike Shanahan was Steve Young's offensive coordinator in San Francisco, and Young ranks as a more apt comparison to Griffin. Accurate, strong and capable of running for big numbers, Griffin should grow with Shanahan each year, just as Young did. If he can avoid the seven concussions, however, that would be a bonus.

Griffin will start the season with two dome games, which will help him adjust to the pro level, but it's the final seven weeks of the schedule that will prove to be the most enlightening of the season. The divisional games offer a chance to assess how well Griffin will stack up in the future, as well as judging his development up to that point.

The NFC East is a notoriously tough league, and the quality of the pass rush he will face could cause Griffin to make poor decisions in the pocket. His injury risk is highest in these games, and he must resist the urge to extend the play with his feet when the protection breaks down.

The early weeks will give the divisional rivals a chance to formulate a strategy, so it is here that the unpredictability I spoke of earlier will need to show its worth. Innovative play-calling is key, and will remove some of the blitz threat by keeping the defense guessing on each play.

Griffin will find able assistance from the running backs, and I expect Roy Helu Jr. to excel in these games. Griffin would also do well to lean on the tight ends, and if Kyle Shanahan is prepared to use two tight end sets more than last year, it could ease some of the load on the new quarterback.

Barring injuries to both Griffin and other key Redskins, his ability and attitude form a remarkable improvement to the offense. It's not likely to be a playoff year—and 9-7 won't be enough to take the division again—but the upgrades made by the front office should translate to three extra wins for the Redskins in Griffin's first year.

"No pressure, no diamonds," as he would undoubtedly say.